Meta-analysis of land use systems development in Africa: Trajectories, implications, adaptive capacity, and future dynamics

Abstract

In the face of a multiplicity of crises – including land cover change, climate hazards, economic uncertainties, social injustice, adaptation and sustainability concerns, relevant stakeholders have taken stern initiatives to avert these phenomena that continuously grow in magnitude and relevance. We investigate the driving mechanisms of land use cover change, across Africa’s sub-regions using integrated remote sensing techniques and existing literature. Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) and ANN-CA were utilized to simulate land use scenarios (2020–2050) in Africa. Fundamental drift in land use systems was found to be driven by an array of socio-political, economic and biophysical factors. Interestingly, land use and recover change (LURC) patterns were observed in the north and west African regions. A regrowth/greening in forests (+2.67 %) and a decline in deserts/barren areas (-16.62 %), grasslands (-16.58 %) and farmlands/shrubs (-12.88 %) can be observed during the last 40 years. Conversely, massive shifts in built-up (+216.52 %) and areas covered by waterbodies (+84.44 %) can be spotted. Predicted trends for natural vegetation estimate 1.69 % and 2.92 % reduction rates annually for forests and grasslands, respectively, over the next 30 years. The piecemeal of evidence provided shows more lands will be converted into built-environment and cultivated lands. Based on these premises, we propose a ‘4R value strategy’ that unifies actions, addresses resource-related conflicts and the drivers identified, amid sustainability concerns. The study’s standpoints prompt the decisions of governments, the scientific community and interested parties to create alternative futures by tackling prevailing trends which aggravate environmental degradation and poverty.