Renewable, Flexible, and Storage Capacities: Friends or Foes?

Xiaoshan Peng, Owen Q. Wu, Gilvan C. Souza
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Abstract

Problem definition: More than 99% of the new power generation capacity to be installed in the United States from 2023 to 2050 will be powered by wind, solar, and natural gas. Additionally, large-scale battery systems are planned to support power systems. It is paramount for policymakers and electric utilities to deepen the understanding of the operational and investment relations among renewable, flexible (natural gas-powered), and storage capacities. In this paper, we optimize both the joint operations and investment mix of these three types of resources, examining whether they act as investment substitutes or complements. Methodology/results: Using stochastic control theory, we identify and prove the structure of the optimal storage control policy, from which we determine various pairs of charging and discharging operations. We find that whether storage complements or substitutes other resources hinges on the operational pairs involved and whether executing these pairs is constrained by charging or discharging. Through extensive numerical analysis using data from a Florida utility, government agencies, and industry reports, we demonstrate how storage operations drive the investment relations among renewable, flexible, and storage capacities. Managerial implications: Storage and renewables substitute each other in meeting peak demand; storage complements renewables by storing surplus renewable output; renewables complement storage by compressing peak periods, facilitating peak shaving and displacement of flexible capacity. These substitution and complementary effects often coexist, and the dominant effect can alternate as costs change. A thorough understanding of these relations at both operational and investment levels empowers decision makers to optimize energy infrastructure investments and operations, thereby unlocking their full potential.Funding: This research was supported in part by Lilly Endowment, Inc., through its support for the Indiana University Pervasive Technology Institute. This research was also supported by Kelley School of Business, Indiana University, and Haslam College of Business, University of Tennessee. O. Q. Wu thanks Grant Thornton for their generous support.Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.0068 .
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可再生、灵活和存储能力:是敌是友?
问题定义:从 2023 年到 2050 年,美国新增发电能力的 99% 以上将由风能、太阳能和天然气提供。此外,还计划采用大规模电池系统来支持电力系统。对于政策制定者和电力公司来说,加深对可再生能源、柔性发电(天然气发电)和储能之间的运营和投资关系的理解至关重要。在本文中,我们将优化这三类资源的联合运营和投资组合,研究它们是作为投资替代品还是互补品。方法/结果:利用随机控制理论,我们确定并证明了最优存储控制策略的结构,并据此确定了各种充电和放电操作对。我们发现,存储是补充还是替代其他资源,取决于所涉及的操作对,以及执行这些操作对是否受到充电或放电的限制。通过使用佛罗里达州一家公用事业公司、政府机构和行业报告中的数据进行广泛的数值分析,我们证明了储能操作是如何驱动可再生能源、柔性能源和储能之间的投资关系的。管理意义:在满足峰值需求方面,储能与可再生能源相互替代;储能通过储存剩余的可再生能源输出来补充可再生能源;可再生能源通过压缩高峰期、促进削峰填谷和替代灵活容量来补充储能。这些替代效应和互补效应往往同时存在,主导效应会随着成本的变化而交替变化。透彻了解运营和投资层面的这些关系,有助于决策者优化能源基础设施的投资和运营,从而释放其全部潜力:本研究得到了美国礼来基金会(Lilly Endowment, Inc.本研究还得到了印第安纳大学凯利商学院和田纳西大学哈斯勒姆商学院的支持。O. Q. Wu 感谢 Grant Thornton 公司的慷慨支持:在线附录见 https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.0068 。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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