Lucas Streib, Jurg W. Spaak, Marius Kloft, Ralf B. Schäfer
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background
Biodiversity is declining worldwide as ecosystems are increasingly threatened by multiple stressors associated with anthropogenic global change. Stressors frequently co-occur across scales spatially and temporally, resulting in joint effects that are additive or non-additive, i.e., antagonism or synergism. Forecasting and counteracting threats from intensifying stressors requires improved mechanistic understanding of joint effects, which is currently relatively low. To date, research on multiple stressors has been biased toward simplified scenarios, emphasized classification of interactions over realized joint effects, and mostly ignored adaptation (i.e., phenotypic plasticity or evolving life-history traits) of organisms. To investigate if more a realistic scenarios design incorporating complex spatiotemporal stressor profiles and adaption change joint effects and interactions of multiple stressors compared to simplified scenarios, we modified a spatially explicit meta-population model for a generic freshwater insect. We used the model to simulate different, hypothetical spatiotemporal profiles of a continuous and a discrete stressor and evaluated their joint effects and interactions. Agricultural land use represented the continuous stressor impacting meta-population patch quality and network connectivity and related scenarios implied different trajectories. Climatic events represented the discrete stressor impacting all patches simultaneously by temporary mortality events, with related scenarios implying different event severity. Adaptation mitigated the effects of climatic events based on previous events.
Results
Excluding adaptation, we found that at higher levels of the discrete stressor (i.e., strong and frequent climatic events) it strongly dominates the joint effects, while at a low level (i.e., weak and infrequent climatic events) of the discrete stressor, the continuous stressor (i.e., land use) dominates. Yet, the continuous stressor always defined the interaction type, with decreasing land use stress leading to antagonism, and increasing land use stress leading to synergism. Adaptation reduced joint effects under decreasing land use stress, yet had little compensatory influence under increasing land use stress. Moreover, adaptation changed interaction sizes inconsistently across the different land use and climate scenarios, with change depending on the climate scenario. Here, interactions decreased in the moderate scenario but increased in the severe and intense scenarios.
Conclusions
We highlight that realistic stressor scenarios accounting for potential adaptation are critical for a mechanistic understanding of how species respond to global change. To our knowledge, this is the first modeling study to show that stressor interactions depend on complex spatiotemporal stressor profiles and adaptation, following general principles.
期刊介绍:
ESEU is an international journal, focusing primarily on Europe, with a broad scope covering all aspects of environmental sciences, including the main topic regulation.
ESEU will discuss the entanglement between environmental sciences and regulation because, in recent years, there have been misunderstandings and even disagreement between stakeholders in these two areas. ESEU will help to improve the comprehension of issues between environmental sciences and regulation.
ESEU will be an outlet from the German-speaking (DACH) countries to Europe and an inlet from Europe to the DACH countries regarding environmental sciences and regulation.
Moreover, ESEU will facilitate the exchange of ideas and interaction between Europe and the DACH countries regarding environmental regulatory issues.
Although Europe is at the center of ESEU, the journal will not exclude the rest of the world, because regulatory issues pertaining to environmental sciences can be fully seen only from a global perspective.