Variability in the Timing of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Epidemics in Guatemala, 2008–2018

IF 4.3 4区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI:10.1111/irv.13334
Sarah Hamid, Laura M. Grajeda, Oscar de Leon, Maria Renee Lopez, Herberth Maldonado, Ana Beatriz Gomez, Benjamin Lopman, Thomas F. Clasen, John P. McCracken
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Abstract

Background

The description of local seasonality patterns in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) incidence is important to guide the timing of administration of RSV immunization products.

Methods

We characterized RSV seasonality in Guatemala using the moving epidemic method (MEM) with absolute counts of RSV-associated acute respiratory infections (ARI) from hospital surveillance in Santa Rosa and Quetzaltenango departments of Guatemala.

Results

From Week 17 of 2008 through Week 16 of 2018, 8487 ARI cases tested positive for RSV by rRT-PCR. Season onsets varied up to 5 months; early seasons starting in late May to early August and finishing in September to November were most common, but late seasons starting in October to November and finishing in March to April were also observed. Both epidemic patterns had similar durations ranging from 4 to 6 months. Epidemic thresholds (the levels of virus activity that signal the onset and end of a seasonal epidemic) calculated prospectively using previous seasons' data captured between 70% and 99% of annual RSV detections. Onset weeks differed by 2–10 weeks, and offset weeks differed by 2–16 weeks between the two surveillance sites.

Conclusions

Variability in the timing of seasonal RSV epidemics in Guatemala demonstrates the difficulty in precisely predicting the timing of seasonal RSV epidemics based on onset weeks from past seasons and suggests that maximal reduction in RSV disease burden would be achieved through year-round vaccination and immunoprophylaxis administration to at-risk infants.

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2008-2018 年危地马拉呼吸道合胞病毒流行时间的变异性。
背景:描述当地呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV)发病的季节性模式对于指导 RSV 免疫产品的施用时机非常重要:我们采用移动流行病学方法(MEM),利用危地马拉圣罗莎省和克萨尔特南戈省医院监测到的与 RSV 相关的急性呼吸道感染(ARI)绝对计数,描述了危地马拉 RSV 的季节性特征:从 2008 年第 17 周到 2018 年第 16 周,共有 8487 例 ARI 病例通过 rRT-PCR 检测出 RSV 阳性。季节起始时间长达 5 个月;5 月底至 8 月初开始、9 月至 11 月结束的早期季节最为常见,但也观察到 10 月至 11 月开始、3 月至 4 月结束的晚期季节。两种流行模式的持续时间相似,均为 4 至 6 个月。流行阈值(标志季节性流行开始和结束的病毒活动水平)是根据前几季的数据计算得出的,占全年 RSV 检测的 70% 到 99%。两个监测点的发病周数相差 2-10 周,抵消周数相差 2-16 周:危地马拉季节性 RSV 流行时间的变化表明,根据以往季节的发病周数难以准确预测季节性 RSV 流行的时间。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
4.50%
发文量
120
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses is the official journal of the International Society of Influenza and Other Respiratory Virus Diseases - an independent scientific professional society - dedicated to promoting the prevention, detection, treatment, and control of influenza and other respiratory virus diseases. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses is an Open Access journal. Copyright on any research article published by Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses is retained by the author(s). Authors grant Wiley a license to publish the article and identify itself as the original publisher. Authors also grant any third party the right to use the article freely as long as its integrity is maintained and its original authors, citation details and publisher are identified.
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