Stay away or stay in? Exploring settlement decisions of economic migrants and war refugees from Ukraine in the structural approach framework

Abstract

A sound understanding of immigrants' settlement intentions and the factors that influence them is crucial for developing successful integration policies and predicting the economic performance of the host country. It can also help us better comprehend migration patterns and individual decisions. Drawing upon a structural approach, we examined selected phenomena such as a skills mismatch and perceived discrimination and explored how they influence migrants' choices between staying and integrating into Poland or returning to their home countries. Additionally, we considered the mediating role of the concept of social (dis)integration in shaping these behaviours. Through empirical analysis conducted on two groups of Ukrainians—economic migrants and war refugees—using data collected in the Greater Poland region, our findings revealed a stronger negative impact of perceived discrimination on settlement intentions for the sample of Ukrainian citizens who arrived before the war, compared with the sample of war refugees. This relationship is fully mediated by disintegration. However, we did not confirm the mediating role of disintegration in the relationship between intentions to settle in Poland and migrants' skills mismatch. Furthermore, we identified some differences in the loadings of factors between these two groups, particularly in relation to settlement intentions and discrimination.