Prediction of the Breeding and Wintering Ranges of Pomacea canaliculata in China Using Ensemble Models

IF 6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Journal of Environmental Informatics Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI:10.3808/jei.202400521
Z. Qin, J. H. Yang, T. Gan, J. E. Zhang, Y. M. Liu, F. C. Yao, B. L. Zhao
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Abstract

Pomacea canaliculata is a pest species of freshwater neotropical gastropod that has colonized the coastal regions of southern China since the 1980s and has expanded its range into temperate regions of the Yangtze River Basin. The breeding and overwintering populations of P. canaliculata have increased during its gradual northward expansion over the past 40 years. There is a high likelihood that P. canaliculata can overwinter in areas conducive to breeding due to the impacts of a changing climate. Yet, the potential future changes in the range of P. canaliculata and associated climatic determinants remain unclear. This study examined the relationship between the limits of geographic distribution and key climate variables determining suitability for P. canaliculata breeding and wintering periods using the ensemble species distribution models from the R package BIOMOD2. Future climate suitability and changes were assessed under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The predictions indicated that P. canaliculata is most sensitive to monthly minimum temperature and that this species will extend its breeding range towards northern latitudes and will establish increased wintering locations in China. The predictions for both breeding and overwintering populations suggest a northward shift in the most suitable habitat, a reduction of highly suitable areas in the south, and an increase in suitable areas along the center and east of the Yangtze River Basin extending further northwards. Within the context of an overall expansion in P. canaliculata and climate warming, there should be a focus on the center of the Yangtze River Basin in which this species can overwinter for breeding only. Early monitoring and proactive measures to effectively prevent further spread of this species should be prioritized in this region characterized by abundant rice cultivation and fish breeding.
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利用集合模型预测中国裸冠菊的繁殖和越冬分布区
Pomacea canaliculata 是一种淡水新热带腹足类害虫,自 20 世纪 80 年代以来已在中国南方沿海地区定居,并将其分布范围扩展到长江流域的温带地区。在过去的 40 年中,P. canaliculata 逐渐向北扩展,其繁殖和越冬种群数量有所增加。受气候变化的影响,P. canaliculata极有可能在有利于繁殖的地区越冬。然而,P. canaliculata的分布范围未来可能发生的变化以及相关的气候决定因素仍不清楚。本研究利用 R 软件包 BIOMOD2 中的集合物种分布模型,研究了 P. canaliculata 的地理分布范围与决定其繁殖期和越冬期适宜性的关键气候变量之间的关系。在两种具有代表性的浓度路径(RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5)下,对未来气候适宜性和变化进行了评估。预测结果表明,P. canaliculata 对月最低气温最为敏感,该物种的繁殖地将向北纬扩展,并将在中国建立更多的越冬地。对繁殖和越冬种群的预测表明,最适宜的栖息地将向北转移,南部高度适宜的地区将减少,长江流域中部和东部的适宜地区将增加,并进一步向北延伸。在P. canaliculata整体扩大和气候变暖的背景下,应重点关注长江流域中心地带,该物种只能在此越冬繁殖。在这一水稻种植和鱼类养殖丰富的地区,应优先考虑早期监测和积极措施,以有效防止该物种的进一步扩散。
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来源期刊
Journal of Environmental Informatics
Journal of Environmental Informatics ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
12.40
自引率
2.90%
发文量
7
审稿时长
24 months
期刊介绍: Journal of Environmental Informatics (JEI) is an international, peer-reviewed, and interdisciplinary publication designed to foster research innovation and discovery on basic science and information technology for addressing various environmental problems. The journal aims to motivate and enhance the integration of science and technology to help develop sustainable solutions that are consensus-oriented, risk-informed, scientifically-based and cost-effective. JEI serves researchers, educators and practitioners who are interested in theoretical and/or applied aspects of environmental science, regardless of disciplinary boundaries. The topics addressed by the journal include: - Planning of energy, environmental and ecological management systems - Simulation, optimization and Environmental decision support - Environmental geomatics - GIS, RS and other spatial information technologies - Informatics for environmental chemistry and biochemistry - Environmental applications of functional materials - Environmental phenomena at atomic, molecular and macromolecular scales - Modeling of chemical, biological and environmental processes - Modeling of biotechnological systems for enhanced pollution mitigation - Computer graphics and visualization for environmental decision support - Artificial intelligence and expert systems for environmental applications - Environmental statistics and risk analysis - Climate modeling, downscaling, impact assessment, and adaptation planning - Other areas of environmental systems science and information technology.
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