Z. Qin, J. H. Yang, T. Gan, J. E. Zhang, Y. M. Liu, F. C. Yao, B. L. Zhao
{"title":"Prediction of the Breeding and Wintering Ranges of Pomacea canaliculata in China Using Ensemble Models","authors":"Z. Qin, J. H. Yang, T. Gan, J. E. Zhang, Y. M. Liu, F. C. Yao, B. L. Zhao","doi":"10.3808/jei.202400521","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Pomacea canaliculata is a pest species of freshwater neotropical gastropod that has colonized the coastal regions of southern China since the 1980s and has expanded its range into temperate regions of the Yangtze River Basin. The breeding and overwintering populations of P. canaliculata have increased during its gradual northward expansion over the past 40 years. There is a high likelihood that P. canaliculata can overwinter in areas conducive to breeding due to the impacts of a changing climate. Yet, the potential future changes in the range of P. canaliculata and associated climatic determinants remain unclear. This study examined the relationship between the limits of geographic distribution and key climate variables determining suitability for P. canaliculata breeding and wintering periods using the ensemble species distribution models from the R package BIOMOD2. Future climate suitability and changes were assessed under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The predictions indicated that P. canaliculata is most sensitive to monthly minimum temperature and that this species will extend its breeding range towards northern latitudes and will establish increased wintering locations in China. The predictions for both breeding and overwintering populations suggest a northward shift in the most suitable habitat, a reduction of highly suitable areas in the south, and an increase in suitable areas along the center and east of the Yangtze River Basin extending further northwards. Within the context of an overall expansion in P. canaliculata and climate warming, there should be a focus on the center of the Yangtze River Basin in which this species can overwinter for breeding only. Early monitoring and proactive measures to effectively prevent further spread of this species should be prioritized in this region characterized by abundant rice cultivation and fish breeding.\n","PeriodicalId":54840,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Environmental Informatics","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3808/jei.202400521","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Pomacea canaliculata is a pest species of freshwater neotropical gastropod that has colonized the coastal regions of southern China since the 1980s and has expanded its range into temperate regions of the Yangtze River Basin. The breeding and overwintering populations of P. canaliculata have increased during its gradual northward expansion over the past 40 years. There is a high likelihood that P. canaliculata can overwinter in areas conducive to breeding due to the impacts of a changing climate. Yet, the potential future changes in the range of P. canaliculata and associated climatic determinants remain unclear. This study examined the relationship between the limits of geographic distribution and key climate variables determining suitability for P. canaliculata breeding and wintering periods using the ensemble species distribution models from the R package BIOMOD2. Future climate suitability and changes were assessed under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The predictions indicated that P. canaliculata is most sensitive to monthly minimum temperature and that this species will extend its breeding range towards northern latitudes and will establish increased wintering locations in China. The predictions for both breeding and overwintering populations suggest a northward shift in the most suitable habitat, a reduction of highly suitable areas in the south, and an increase in suitable areas along the center and east of the Yangtze River Basin extending further northwards. Within the context of an overall expansion in P. canaliculata and climate warming, there should be a focus on the center of the Yangtze River Basin in which this species can overwinter for breeding only. Early monitoring and proactive measures to effectively prevent further spread of this species should be prioritized in this region characterized by abundant rice cultivation and fish breeding.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Environmental Informatics (JEI) is an international, peer-reviewed, and interdisciplinary publication designed to foster research innovation and discovery on basic science and information technology for addressing various environmental problems. The journal aims to motivate and enhance the integration of science and technology to help develop sustainable solutions that are consensus-oriented, risk-informed, scientifically-based and cost-effective. JEI serves researchers, educators and practitioners who are interested in theoretical and/or applied aspects of environmental science, regardless of disciplinary boundaries. The topics addressed by the journal include:
- Planning of energy, environmental and ecological management systems
- Simulation, optimization and Environmental decision support
- Environmental geomatics - GIS, RS and other spatial information technologies
- Informatics for environmental chemistry and biochemistry
- Environmental applications of functional materials
- Environmental phenomena at atomic, molecular and macromolecular scales
- Modeling of chemical, biological and environmental processes
- Modeling of biotechnological systems for enhanced pollution mitigation
- Computer graphics and visualization for environmental decision support
- Artificial intelligence and expert systems for environmental applications
- Environmental statistics and risk analysis
- Climate modeling, downscaling, impact assessment, and adaptation planning
- Other areas of environmental systems science and information technology.