Detecting climate milestones on the path to climate stabilization

Abstract

The era of anthropogenic climate change can be described by defined climate milestones. These milestones mark changes in the historic trajectory of change, and include peak greenhouse gas emissions, peak greenhouse gas concentration, deceleration of warming, net-zero emissions, and a transition to global cooling. However, given internal variability in the Earth system and measurement uncertainty, definitively saying that a milestone has passed requires rigour. Here CMIP6 simulations of peak-and-decline scenarios are used to examine the time needed to robustly detect three climate milestones: (1) the slowdown of global warming; (2) the end of global surface temperature increase; and (3) peak concentration of CO₂. It is estimated that it will take 40 to 60 years after a simulated slowdown in warming rate, to robustly detect ( >95% change) the signal in the global average temperature record. Detecting when warming has stopped will also be difficult and it takes until the mid 22nd century to have enough data to conclude warming has stopped. Detecting that CO₂ concentration has peaked is far easier and a drop in CO₂ concentration of 3 ppm is consistent with a greater than 99% chance that CO₂ has peaked in all scenarios examined. Thus it is likely that as the rate of CO₂ emissions is reduced, and net-zero emissions is approached, interpreting the global temperature record will become difficult—with a high potential to create confusion amongst policy makers and the general public.