Pub Date : 2025-01-01Epub Date: 2024-12-06DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad97d1
Edgar Castro, James Healy, Abbie Liu, Yaguang Wei, Anna Kosheleva, Joel Schwartz
The extent and robustness of the interaction between exposures to heat and ambient PM2.5 is unclear and little is known of the interaction between exposures to cold and ambient PM2.5. Clarifying these interactions, if any, is crucial due to the omnipresence of PM2.5 in the atmosphere and increasing scope and frequency of extreme temperature events. To investigate both of these interactions, we merged 6 073 575 individual-level mortality records from thirteen states spanning seventeen years with 1 km daily PM2.5 predictions from sophisticated prediction model and 1 km meteorology from Daymet V4. A time-stratified, bidirectional case-crossover design was used to control for confounding by individual-level, long-term and cyclic weekly characteristics. We fitted conditional logistic regressions with an interaction term between PM2.5 and extreme temperature events to investigate the potential interactive effects on mortality. Ambient PM2.5 exposure has the greatest effect on mortality by all internal causes in the 2 d moving average exposure window. Additionally, we found consistently synergistic interactions between a 10 μg m-3 increase in the 2 d moving average of PM2.5 and extreme heat with interaction odds ratios of 1.013 (95% CI: 1.000, 1.026), 1.024 (95% CI: 1.002, 1.046), and 1.033 (95% CI: 0.991, 1.077) for deaths by all internal causes, circulatory causes, and respiratory causes, respectively, which represent 75%, 156%, and 214% increases in the coefficient estimates for PM2.5 on those days. We also found evidence of interactions on the additive scale with corresponding relative excess risks due to interaction (RERIs) of 0.013 (95% CI: 0.003, 0.021), 0.020 (95% CI: 0.008, 0.031), and 0.017 (95% CI: -0.015, 0.036). Interactions with other PM2.5 exposure windows were more pronounced. For extreme cold, our results were suggestive of an antagonistic relationship. These results suggest that ambient PM2.5 interacts synergistically with exposure to extreme heat, yielding greater risks for mortality than only either exposure alone.
{"title":"Interactive effects between extreme temperatures and PM<sub>2.5</sub> on cause-specific mortality in thirteen U.S. states.","authors":"Edgar Castro, James Healy, Abbie Liu, Yaguang Wei, Anna Kosheleva, Joel Schwartz","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad97d1","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad97d1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The extent and robustness of the interaction between exposures to heat and ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> is unclear and little is known of the interaction between exposures to cold and ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub>. Clarifying these interactions, if any, is crucial due to the omnipresence of PM<sub>2.5</sub> in the atmosphere and increasing scope and frequency of extreme temperature events. To investigate both of these interactions, we merged 6 073 575 individual-level mortality records from thirteen states spanning seventeen years with 1 km daily PM<sub>2.5</sub> predictions from sophisticated prediction model and 1 km meteorology from Daymet V4. A time-stratified, bidirectional case-crossover design was used to control for confounding by individual-level, long-term and cyclic weekly characteristics. We fitted conditional logistic regressions with an interaction term between PM<sub>2.5</sub> and extreme temperature events to investigate the potential interactive effects on mortality. Ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure has the greatest effect on mortality by all internal causes in the 2 d moving average exposure window. Additionally, we found consistently synergistic interactions between a 10 <i>μ</i>g m<sup>-3</sup> increase in the 2 d moving average of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and extreme heat with interaction odds ratios of 1.013 (95% CI: 1.000, 1.026), 1.024 (95% CI: 1.002, 1.046), and 1.033 (95% CI: 0.991, 1.077) for deaths by all internal causes, circulatory causes, and respiratory causes, respectively, which represent 75%, 156%, and 214% increases in the coefficient estimates for PM<sub>2.5</sub> on those days. We also found evidence of interactions on the additive scale with corresponding relative excess risks due to interaction (RERIs) of 0.013 (95% CI: 0.003, 0.021), 0.020 (95% CI: 0.008, 0.031), and 0.017 (95% CI: -0.015, 0.036). Interactions with other PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure windows were more pronounced. For extreme cold, our results were suggestive of an antagonistic relationship. These results suggest that ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> interacts synergistically with exposure to extreme heat, yielding greater risks for mortality than only either exposure alone.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"20 1","pages":"014011"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11622441/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142794697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-01Epub Date: 2024-11-15DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8c65
Gregor Kiesewetter, Shaohui Zhang, Jun Liu
Although China has seen strong reductions in air pollution levels in the last decade, PM2.5 concentrations still exceed the WHO Guideline several times, causing a substantial burden of mortality and morbidity. With many 'low hanging fruits' in terms of abatement measures already taken, further improvements will be more difficult and likely require different strategies than pursued so far. This study looks into the trends expected under current energy policies and air pollution control legislation and analyses the source contributions to ambient PM2.5 in China, with a special focus on the megacity of Beijing. Although reductions are foreseen, China appears not yet on track to meet its long-term targets for greenhouse gas emissions nor the future national air quality standards. Going beyond current policies, we analyze effects of measures which tackle both issues and quantify health co-benefits from further decarbonization policies required to meet the national target of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060, as well as the potential for further air pollution mitigation.
{"title":"Health benefits of decarbonization and clean air policies in Beijing and China.","authors":"Gregor Kiesewetter, Shaohui Zhang, Jun Liu","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad8c65","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad8c65","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Although China has seen strong reductions in air pollution levels in the last decade, PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations still exceed the WHO Guideline several times, causing a substantial burden of mortality and morbidity. With many 'low hanging fruits' in terms of abatement measures already taken, further improvements will be more difficult and likely require different strategies than pursued so far. This study looks into the trends expected under current energy policies and air pollution control legislation and analyses the source contributions to ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> in China, with a special focus on the megacity of Beijing. Although reductions are foreseen, China appears not yet on track to meet its long-term targets for greenhouse gas emissions nor the future national air quality standards. Going beyond current policies, we analyze effects of measures which tackle both issues and quantify health co-benefits from further decarbonization policies required to meet the national target of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060, as well as the potential for further air pollution mitigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"19 12","pages":"124051"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11565186/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142647044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2024-10-07DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7747
Jiachen Zhang, Junhyeong Park, Nancy Bui, Sara Forestieri, Elizabeth Mazmanian, Yucheng He, Cory Parmer, David C Quiros
The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, collectively known as the San Pedro Bay Ports, serve as vital gateways for freight movement in the United States. The COVID-19 pandemic and other influencing factors disrupted freight movement and led to unprecedented cargo surge, vessel congestion, and increased air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from seaport and connected freight system operations beginning in June 2020. In this study, we conducted the first comprehensive monthly assessment of the excess particulate matter, oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions due to the heightened congestion and freight transport activity from ocean-going vessels (OGVs), trucks, locomotives, and cargo handling equipment (CHE) supporting seaport operations. Excess emissions peaked in October 2021 at 23 tons of NOx per day and 2001 tons of CO2 per day. The strategic queuing system implemented in November 2021 significantly reduced the number of anchored and loitering OGVs and their emissions near the ports, even during continued high cargo throughput until Summer 2022. Looking forward, we analyzed projected emissions benefits of adopted California Air Resources Board regulations requiring cleaner and zero-emission trucks, locomotives, and CHE over the next decade. If a repeated port congestion event were to occur in 2035, NOx emissions from land-based freight transport should be lessened by more than 80%. Our study underscores the potential emissions impacts of disruptions to the freight transport network and the critical need to continue reducing its emissions in California and beyond.
{"title":"Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emissions from the San Pedro Bay Ports and future policy implications.","authors":"Jiachen Zhang, Junhyeong Park, Nancy Bui, Sara Forestieri, Elizabeth Mazmanian, Yucheng He, Cory Parmer, David C Quiros","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7747","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7747","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, collectively known as the San Pedro Bay Ports, serve as vital gateways for freight movement in the United States. The COVID-19 pandemic and other influencing factors disrupted freight movement and led to unprecedented cargo surge, vessel congestion, and increased air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from seaport and connected freight system operations beginning in June 2020. In this study, we conducted the first comprehensive monthly assessment of the excess particulate matter, oxides of nitrogen (NO<sub>x</sub>), and carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions due to the heightened congestion and freight transport activity from ocean-going vessels (OGVs), trucks, locomotives, and cargo handling equipment (CHE) supporting seaport operations. Excess emissions peaked in October 2021 at 23 tons of NO<sub>x</sub> per day and 2001 tons of CO<sub>2</sub> per day. The strategic queuing system implemented in November 2021 significantly reduced the number of anchored and loitering OGVs and their emissions near the ports, even during continued high cargo throughput until Summer 2022. Looking forward, we analyzed projected emissions benefits of adopted California Air Resources Board regulations requiring cleaner and zero-emission trucks, locomotives, and CHE over the next decade. If a repeated port congestion event were to occur in 2035, NO<sub>x</sub> emissions from land-based freight transport should be lessened by more than 80%. Our study underscores the potential emissions impacts of disruptions to the freight transport network and the critical need to continue reducing its emissions in California and beyond.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"19 11","pages":"114023"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11457959/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142389020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-17DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7614
Bethany B Cutts,Uchenna Osia,Laura A Bray,Angela R Harris,Hanna C Long,Hannah Goins,Sallie McLean,Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson,Tal Ben-Horin,Astrid Schnetzer
{"title":"Shifting power: data democracy in engineering solutions.","authors":"Bethany B Cutts,Uchenna Osia,Laura A Bray,Angela R Harris,Hanna C Long,Hannah Goins,Sallie McLean,Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson,Tal Ben-Horin,Astrid Schnetzer","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7614","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"42 1","pages":"101004"},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-16DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7276
Paulo J Murillo-Sandoval, Steven E Sesnie, Manuel Eduardo Ordoñez Armas, Nicholas Magliocca, Beth Tellman, Jennifer A Devine, Erik Nielsen and Kendra McSweeney
We assess how much of Central America is likely to be agriculturally suitable for cultivating coca (Erythroxylum spp), the main ingredient in cocaine. Since 2017, organized criminal groups (not smallholders) have been establishing coca plantations in Central America for cocaine production. This has broken South America’s long monopoly on coca leaf production for the global cocaine trade and raised concerns about future expansion in the isthmus. Yet it is not clear how much of Central America has suitable biophysical characteristics for a crop domesticated in, and long associated with the Andean region. We combine geo-located data from coca cultivation locations in Colombia with reported coca sites in Central America to model the soil, climate, and topography of Central American landscapes that might be suitable for coca production under standard management practices. We find that 47% of northern Central America (Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize) has biophysical characteristics that appear highly suitable for coca-growing, while most of southern Central America does not. Biophysical factors, then, are unlikely to constrain coca’s spread in northern Central America. Whether or not the crop is more widely planted will depend on complex and multi-scalar social, economic, and political factors. Among them is whether Central American countries and their allies will continue to prioritize militarized approaches to the drug trade through coca eradication and drug interdiction, which are likely to induce further expansion, not contain it. Novel approaches to the drug trade will be required to avert this outcome.
{"title":"Central America’s agro-ecological suitability for cultivating coca, Erythroxylum spp","authors":"Paulo J Murillo-Sandoval, Steven E Sesnie, Manuel Eduardo Ordoñez Armas, Nicholas Magliocca, Beth Tellman, Jennifer A Devine, Erik Nielsen and Kendra McSweeney","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7276","url":null,"abstract":"We assess how much of Central America is likely to be agriculturally suitable for cultivating coca (Erythroxylum spp), the main ingredient in cocaine. Since 2017, organized criminal groups (not smallholders) have been establishing coca plantations in Central America for cocaine production. This has broken South America’s long monopoly on coca leaf production for the global cocaine trade and raised concerns about future expansion in the isthmus. Yet it is not clear how much of Central America has suitable biophysical characteristics for a crop domesticated in, and long associated with the Andean region. We combine geo-located data from coca cultivation locations in Colombia with reported coca sites in Central America to model the soil, climate, and topography of Central American landscapes that might be suitable for coca production under standard management practices. We find that 47% of northern Central America (Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize) has biophysical characteristics that appear highly suitable for coca-growing, while most of southern Central America does not. Biophysical factors, then, are unlikely to constrain coca’s spread in northern Central America. Whether or not the crop is more widely planted will depend on complex and multi-scalar social, economic, and political factors. Among them is whether Central American countries and their allies will continue to prioritize militarized approaches to the drug trade through coca eradication and drug interdiction, which are likely to induce further expansion, not contain it. Novel approaches to the drug trade will be required to avert this outcome.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-16DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad786a
Jingjing Zhu, Yuhua Cai, Fuzhong Wu, Jinyu Zhang, Xinying Zhang and Xiangyin Ni
Carbon (C) release from plant and microbial residues is a primary pathway of energy flow from photosynthetic and metabolic biomass to carbon dioxide (CO2) in terrestrial ecosystems. Traditional view show that microbial residue C is more resistant to decompose than plant litter because their smaller particle sizes could be preferentially occluded in microaggregates with less microbial accessibility. However, we still lack a quantitative assessment (i.e. isotopic C labeling) to isolate the progressive release of C fractions from both plant and microbial residues. Here we used a global data set of 117 decomposition experiments that traced the 13C or 14C release of isotopically labeled plant and microbial residues to estimate the C release rates and turnover times by using a first-order exponential kinetics model. The average C release rates of crop, grass and tree litter were 7.78, 3.79 and 2.11 yr−1, which were significantly lower than microbial residues (13.07 yr−1). Although C release rates of both plant and microbial residues were positively correlated with site temperature, the mean turnover time of microbial residues was 2–6 times lower than plant litter. We suggest that a constraint in microbial and plant residues leads to a predictable pattern of C release during terrestrial decomposition, which could be included in Earth system models.
{"title":"Isotopic labeling evidence shows faster carbon release from microbial residues than plant litter","authors":"Jingjing Zhu, Yuhua Cai, Fuzhong Wu, Jinyu Zhang, Xinying Zhang and Xiangyin Ni","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad786a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad786a","url":null,"abstract":"Carbon (C) release from plant and microbial residues is a primary pathway of energy flow from photosynthetic and metabolic biomass to carbon dioxide (CO2) in terrestrial ecosystems. Traditional view show that microbial residue C is more resistant to decompose than plant litter because their smaller particle sizes could be preferentially occluded in microaggregates with less microbial accessibility. However, we still lack a quantitative assessment (i.e. isotopic C labeling) to isolate the progressive release of C fractions from both plant and microbial residues. Here we used a global data set of 117 decomposition experiments that traced the 13C or 14C release of isotopically labeled plant and microbial residues to estimate the C release rates and turnover times by using a first-order exponential kinetics model. The average C release rates of crop, grass and tree litter were 7.78, 3.79 and 2.11 yr−1, which were significantly lower than microbial residues (13.07 yr−1). Although C release rates of both plant and microbial residues were positively correlated with site temperature, the mean turnover time of microbial residues was 2–6 times lower than plant litter. We suggest that a constraint in microbial and plant residues leads to a predictable pattern of C release during terrestrial decomposition, which could be included in Earth system models.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-16DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad786b
Fei Song, Haoyu Wu, Zihan Sun, Junbo Bai, Fangli Su, Deshen Xu, Chenchen Cao, Haifu Li, Shuang Song and Yi Liu
In the context of rapid population growth and limited arable land resources, the agricultural system has to provide enough food in a sustainable way. Regional agricultural systems have good consistency in agricultural practices, management decisions, social economy, and climate, which is of great significance in ensuring food security. In this study, emergy analysis and the logarithmic mean divisia index method were integrated to construct an evaluation framework from the dimensions of socio-economic environment, resource environment, climate environment, and ecological environment. Then we evaluated and analyzed the changes in agricultural system sustainability from 1990 to 2019 in the mainstream of Liaohe River Basin, a typical agricultural basin in China. The results showed that the Emergy sustainability index (ESI) decreased from 0.17 to 0.14, and factors Δ Pt/Gt (social and economic development level), Δ G/I (agricultural economic benefits), and Δ Gt/G (economic structure) from the socio-economic environment dimension had the greatest impact on changes in ESI. Moreover, society and economy affected the factors in the resource environmental dimensions through the allocation of policies and resources, which in turn directly affected ESI. The influence of factors from the climatic environment and ecological environment weakens as the ability to manage agricultural systems increases. The research provided a reference for the planning and management of sustaining agricultural systems at a regional scale.
{"title":"Change in the sustainability of regional agricultural systems: based on an emergy decomposition analysis","authors":"Fei Song, Haoyu Wu, Zihan Sun, Junbo Bai, Fangli Su, Deshen Xu, Chenchen Cao, Haifu Li, Shuang Song and Yi Liu","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad786b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad786b","url":null,"abstract":"In the context of rapid population growth and limited arable land resources, the agricultural system has to provide enough food in a sustainable way. Regional agricultural systems have good consistency in agricultural practices, management decisions, social economy, and climate, which is of great significance in ensuring food security. In this study, emergy analysis and the logarithmic mean divisia index method were integrated to construct an evaluation framework from the dimensions of socio-economic environment, resource environment, climate environment, and ecological environment. Then we evaluated and analyzed the changes in agricultural system sustainability from 1990 to 2019 in the mainstream of Liaohe River Basin, a typical agricultural basin in China. The results showed that the Emergy sustainability index (ESI) decreased from 0.17 to 0.14, and factors Δ Pt/Gt (social and economic development level), Δ G/I (agricultural economic benefits), and Δ Gt/G (economic structure) from the socio-economic environment dimension had the greatest impact on changes in ESI. Moreover, society and economy affected the factors in the resource environmental dimensions through the allocation of policies and resources, which in turn directly affected ESI. The influence of factors from the climatic environment and ecological environment weakens as the ability to manage agricultural systems increases. The research provided a reference for the planning and management of sustaining agricultural systems at a regional scale.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-16DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad75a9
Eleanor M Hennessy, Corinne D Scown and Inês M L Azevedo
Long-haul freight shipment in the United States relies on diesel trucks and constitutes ∼3% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and a significant share of local air pollution. Here, we compare the climate and air pollution-related health damages from electric versus diesel long-haul truck fleets. We use truck commodity flows to estimate tailpipe emissions from diesel trucks and regional grid emissions intensities to estimate charging emissions from electric trucks under various grid scenarios. We use a reduced complexity air quality model combined with valuation of air pollution-related premature deaths (using two hazard ratios (HRs)) and quantify the distributional health impacts in different scenarios. We find that annual health and climate costs of the current diesel fleet are $195–$249/capita compared to $174–$205/capita for a new diesel fleet, and $156–$177/capita for an electric fleet, depending on the HR. We find that freight electrification could avoid $6.2–8.5 billion in health and climate damages annually when compared to a fleet of new diesel vehicles (with even higher benefits when compared to the current diesel fleet). However, the Midwest and parts of the Gulf Coast would experience an increase in health damages due to vehicles charging using electricity from coal power plants. If old coal power plants (operating in 1980 or earlier) are replaced with zero-emission generation, electrification of all U.S. freight would result in $32.3–39.2 billion in avoided damages annually and health benefits throughout the U.S. Electrifying transport of consumer manufacturing goods (including electronics, transport equipment, and precision instruments) and food, beverage, and tobacco products would provide the largest absolute health and climate benefits, whereas mixed freight and manufacturing goods would result in the largest benefits per tonne-km. We find small variations in health damages across race and income. These results will help policymakers prioritize electrification and charging investment strategies for the freight transportation sub-sector.
{"title":"The health, climate, and equity benefits of freight truck electrification in the United States","authors":"Eleanor M Hennessy, Corinne D Scown and Inês M L Azevedo","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad75a9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad75a9","url":null,"abstract":"Long-haul freight shipment in the United States relies on diesel trucks and constitutes ∼3% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and a significant share of local air pollution. Here, we compare the climate and air pollution-related health damages from electric versus diesel long-haul truck fleets. We use truck commodity flows to estimate tailpipe emissions from diesel trucks and regional grid emissions intensities to estimate charging emissions from electric trucks under various grid scenarios. We use a reduced complexity air quality model combined with valuation of air pollution-related premature deaths (using two hazard ratios (HRs)) and quantify the distributional health impacts in different scenarios. We find that annual health and climate costs of the current diesel fleet are $195–$249/capita compared to $174–$205/capita for a new diesel fleet, and $156–$177/capita for an electric fleet, depending on the HR. We find that freight electrification could avoid $6.2–8.5 billion in health and climate damages annually when compared to a fleet of new diesel vehicles (with even higher benefits when compared to the current diesel fleet). However, the Midwest and parts of the Gulf Coast would experience an increase in health damages due to vehicles charging using electricity from coal power plants. If old coal power plants (operating in 1980 or earlier) are replaced with zero-emission generation, electrification of all U.S. freight would result in $32.3–39.2 billion in avoided damages annually and health benefits throughout the U.S. Electrifying transport of consumer manufacturing goods (including electronics, transport equipment, and precision instruments) and food, beverage, and tobacco products would provide the largest absolute health and climate benefits, whereas mixed freight and manufacturing goods would result in the largest benefits per tonne-km. We find small variations in health damages across race and income. These results will help policymakers prioritize electrification and charging investment strategies for the freight transportation sub-sector.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"76 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-16DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad786d
Patrick Shorey, Grace Awuor Arwa, Kristen R Schell and Ahmed Abdulla
Pre-empting the worst consequences of climate change requires both mitigation of emissions from the global energy system and carbon dioxide removal through negative emissions technologies. Despite their nascence, negative emissions technologies are being incorporated into nationally determined contributions to achieve ambitious targets. It is therefore urgent to build a scaffolding that enables their expansion. Here, we report results from a workshop that brought together 34 prominent stakeholders, including scientists, engineers, energy system analysts, economists, experts in public policy, and policy makers. Participants discussed the likely cost and performance of these technologies; elucidated the opportunities and risks facing deployment; and envisioned how nations might build the necessary scaffolding for expansion. The majority narrative is that negative emissions technologies will have a bridging role in decarbonizing existing assets. Different models of deployment were proposed. Reaching the scale of deployment necessary to meet emissions targets is lengthy and expensive. Financial and regulatory risks are seen as greater barriers to deployment at scale than technological risk. Greater certainty regarding carbon pricing, production tax credits, and support for geological characterization and trunkline construction could reduce the former. Critical to expansion is a large-scale increase in low-carbon power production; the implementation of regulatory frameworks that remove uncertainty surrounding investment decisions; and prudent societal engagement.
{"title":"Laying the foundations for negative emissions technologies: insights from a workshop","authors":"Patrick Shorey, Grace Awuor Arwa, Kristen R Schell and Ahmed Abdulla","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad786d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad786d","url":null,"abstract":"Pre-empting the worst consequences of climate change requires both mitigation of emissions from the global energy system and carbon dioxide removal through negative emissions technologies. Despite their nascence, negative emissions technologies are being incorporated into nationally determined contributions to achieve ambitious targets. It is therefore urgent to build a scaffolding that enables their expansion. Here, we report results from a workshop that brought together 34 prominent stakeholders, including scientists, engineers, energy system analysts, economists, experts in public policy, and policy makers. Participants discussed the likely cost and performance of these technologies; elucidated the opportunities and risks facing deployment; and envisioned how nations might build the necessary scaffolding for expansion. The majority narrative is that negative emissions technologies will have a bridging role in decarbonizing existing assets. Different models of deployment were proposed. Reaching the scale of deployment necessary to meet emissions targets is lengthy and expensive. Financial and regulatory risks are seen as greater barriers to deployment at scale than technological risk. Greater certainty regarding carbon pricing, production tax credits, and support for geological characterization and trunkline construction could reduce the former. Critical to expansion is a large-scale increase in low-carbon power production; the implementation of regulatory frameworks that remove uncertainty surrounding investment decisions; and prudent societal engagement.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-16DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7868
Yongjun Chen, Wenxia Zhang and Tianjun Zhou
Growing season heatwaves that occur simultaneously over global croplands can negatively impact global food baskets. The long-term changes of growing season heatwaves, as well as their impacts on croplands productivity, are crucial to food security, but remain unclear. Here, we investigated changes in the frequency, intensity and magnitude of growing season heatwaves from the past to the future over the global croplands, based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. We introduced an index, gross primary productivity (GPP) exposure, as a proxy of the overall impact of heatwaves on cropland productivity. The results show that the frequency and intensity of growing season heatwaves have increased since 1950 and will continue throughout the 21st century. The increase of the annual accumulated magnitude of growing season heatwaves in the future is mainly contributed by the increase of heatwave frequency. This leads to a global-scale increase in the GPP exposure to growing season heatwaves, with Asia, North America, and Europe being the most affected. The continued increase in GPP exposure is dominated by increases in heatwaves rather than GPP itself. Under the lower emission scenario SSP1-2.6, the global cropland GPP exposure will reduce by 86.11% and 330.47% relative to that under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of 21st century. Our results provide crucial insights into potential impacts of heatwaves on cropland productivity and hence food security.
{"title":"Increasing exposure of global croplands productivity to growing season heatwaves under climate warming","authors":"Yongjun Chen, Wenxia Zhang and Tianjun Zhou","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7868","url":null,"abstract":"Growing season heatwaves that occur simultaneously over global croplands can negatively impact global food baskets. The long-term changes of growing season heatwaves, as well as their impacts on croplands productivity, are crucial to food security, but remain unclear. Here, we investigated changes in the frequency, intensity and magnitude of growing season heatwaves from the past to the future over the global croplands, based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. We introduced an index, gross primary productivity (GPP) exposure, as a proxy of the overall impact of heatwaves on cropland productivity. The results show that the frequency and intensity of growing season heatwaves have increased since 1950 and will continue throughout the 21st century. The increase of the annual accumulated magnitude of growing season heatwaves in the future is mainly contributed by the increase of heatwave frequency. This leads to a global-scale increase in the GPP exposure to growing season heatwaves, with Asia, North America, and Europe being the most affected. The continued increase in GPP exposure is dominated by increases in heatwaves rather than GPP itself. Under the lower emission scenario SSP1-2.6, the global cropland GPP exposure will reduce by 86.11% and 330.47% relative to that under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of 21st century. Our results provide crucial insights into potential impacts of heatwaves on cropland productivity and hence food security.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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