Pub Date : 2026-03-14Epub Date: 2026-03-06DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae49a3
Hina Raheel, Annalyse Ferguson, Sharon L Leslie, Vanessa Guardado-Menjivar, Kelsey Chen, Alina Merceron, Jessica Arciniegas, Amy E Lovvorn, Melinda Higgins, Dana Boyd Barr, Eri Saikawa, Margaret A Handley, Lisa M Thompson
Addressing the mounting plastic waste problem requires system-level solutions, along with interventions that promote behavioral change. In low-resource countries, inadequate, if not absent, waste management systems lead to unsafe disposal practices, including open burning. While theory-informed approaches are essential for identifying enablers and barriers to target behavior change, their application is limited in these settings. Given the lack of a theory-driven synthesis of behavioral strategies to address plastic waste, this systematic review aimed to: (1) synthesize behavioral interventions related to plastic waste management in low-resource countries; (2) map these interventions to the behavior change wheel (BCW), using the capability-opportunity-motivation-behavior model, and the theoretical domains framework (TDF); and (3) classify implementation strategies to inform theory-driven intervention design. This review is the first to use the BCW to examine behavioral interventions related to plastic waste management in low-resource countries. Nine bibliographic databases: APA PsycInfo, CINAHL, Embase, Environment Complete, Global Health, GreenFile, Health Source: Nursing Academic, PubMed, and Web of Science Core Collection were searched. We included English-language human studies up to 9 April 2025, that evaluated interventions or policies targeting individual- or community-level behaviors related to plastic waste management in low-, lower-middle, or upper-middle income countries. We excluded studies from high-income countries, and those focused on environmental impacts, industrial or municipal waste streams, ecosystems or animals without human behavioral components, COVID-19-specific waste, or hypothetical modeling without real-life interventions. Forty-three studies met the inclusion criteria. Study quality was assessed using the mixed methods appraisal Tool. Interventions spanned 27 low-resource countries and targeted diverse populations, including schoolchildren, households, market vendors, and community organizations. Education was the most frequent BCW intervention function (76.7%), followed by environmental restructuring, incentivization, persuasion, and training. Mapping revealed that behavioral interventions relied most frequently on the TDF domains of environmental context, knowledge, skills, and social influences. Some domains, such as beliefs about capabilities, reinforcement, and identity, received moderate attention, while appealing to emotion or the use of behavioral regulation, were underutilized. Behavioral interventions for plastic waste management in low-resource countries have predominantly emphasized awareness-raising but insufficiently leveraged other BCW intervention functions and TDF domains. Integration of motivational, emotional, and identity-based strategies alongside structural support can enhance the sustainability of behavior change.
解决日益严重的塑料垃圾问题需要系统层面的解决方案,以及促进行为改变的干预措施。在资源匮乏的国家,废物管理系统不充分(如果不是没有的话)导致不安全的处置做法,包括露天焚烧。虽然基于理论的方法对于确定目标行为改变的促成因素和障碍至关重要,但它们在这些环境中的应用是有限的。鉴于缺乏理论驱动的塑料废物行为策略综合,本系统综述旨在:(1)综合低资源国家与塑料废物管理相关的行为干预措施;(2)利用能力-机会-动机-行为模型和理论域框架(TDF),将这些干预措施映射到行为改变轮(BCW);(3)对实施策略进行分类,为理论驱动的干预设计提供信息。本综述首次使用BCW来检查资源匮乏国家与塑料废物管理相关的行为干预措施。检索了APA PsycInfo、CINAHL、Embase、Environment Complete、Global Health、GreenFile、Health等9个书目数据库:Nursing Academic、PubMed和Web of Science Core Collection。我们纳入了截至2025年4月9日的英语人类研究,评估了针对低收入、中低收入或中高收入国家与塑料废物管理相关的个人或社区行为的干预措施或政策。我们排除了来自高收入国家的研究,以及那些关注环境影响、没有人类行为成分的工业或城市废物流、生态系统或动物、covid -19特定废物或没有现实干预的假设建模的研究。43项研究符合纳入标准。采用混合方法评价工具评价研究质量。干预措施跨越27个资源匮乏国家,针对不同人群,包括学童、家庭、市场摊贩和社区组织。教育是最常见的BCW干预功能(76.7%),其次是环境重组、激励、说服和培训。映射显示,行为干预最频繁地依赖于环境背景、知识、技能和社会影响的TDF域。一些领域,如关于能力、强化和身份的信念,得到了适度的关注,而诉诸情感或使用行为调节,则未得到充分利用。在低资源国家,塑料废物管理的行为干预措施主要强调提高认识,但没有充分利用其他BCW干预功能和TDF领域。动机、情感和基于身份的策略与结构支持的整合可以增强行为改变的可持续性。
{"title":"Behavioral interventions related to plastic waste management in low-and middle-income countries: a systematic review using the behavior change wheel and the theoretical domains framework.","authors":"Hina Raheel, Annalyse Ferguson, Sharon L Leslie, Vanessa Guardado-Menjivar, Kelsey Chen, Alina Merceron, Jessica Arciniegas, Amy E Lovvorn, Melinda Higgins, Dana Boyd Barr, Eri Saikawa, Margaret A Handley, Lisa M Thompson","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae49a3","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae49a3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Addressing the mounting plastic waste problem requires system-level solutions, along with interventions that promote behavioral change. In low-resource countries, inadequate, if not absent, waste management systems lead to unsafe disposal practices, including open burning. While theory-informed approaches are essential for identifying enablers and barriers to target behavior change, their application is limited in these settings. Given the lack of a theory-driven synthesis of behavioral strategies to address plastic waste, this systematic review aimed to: (1) synthesize behavioral interventions related to plastic waste management in low-resource countries; (2) map these interventions to the behavior change wheel (BCW), using the capability-opportunity-motivation-behavior model, and the theoretical domains framework (TDF); and (3) classify implementation strategies to inform theory-driven intervention design. This review is the first to use the BCW to examine behavioral interventions related to plastic waste management in low-resource countries. Nine bibliographic databases: APA PsycInfo, CINAHL, Embase, Environment Complete, Global Health, GreenFile, Health Source: Nursing Academic, PubMed, and Web of Science Core Collection were searched. We included English-language human studies up to 9 April 2025, that evaluated interventions or policies targeting individual- or community-level behaviors related to plastic waste management in low-, lower-middle, or upper-middle income countries. We excluded studies from high-income countries, and those focused on environmental impacts, industrial or municipal waste streams, ecosystems or animals without human behavioral components, COVID-19-specific waste, or hypothetical modeling without real-life interventions. Forty-three studies met the inclusion criteria. Study quality was assessed using the mixed methods appraisal Tool. Interventions spanned 27 low-resource countries and targeted diverse populations, including schoolchildren, households, market vendors, and community organizations. Education was the most frequent BCW intervention function (76.7%), followed by environmental restructuring, incentivization, persuasion, and training. Mapping revealed that behavioral interventions relied most frequently on the TDF domains of environmental context, knowledge, skills, and social influences. Some domains, such as beliefs about capabilities, reinforcement, and identity, received moderate attention, while appealing to emotion or the use of behavioral regulation, were underutilized. Behavioral interventions for plastic waste management in low-resource countries have predominantly emphasized awareness-raising but insufficiently leveraged other BCW intervention functions and TDF domains. Integration of motivational, emotional, and identity-based strategies alongside structural support can enhance the sustainability of behavior change.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"21 5","pages":"053003"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12965387/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147376462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-14Epub Date: 2026-03-06DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae44ae
Felicitas D Beier, Jens Heinke, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Kristine Karstens, Sebastian Ostberg, David Meng-Chuen Chen, David Hötten, Pascal Sauer, Gabriel Abrahão, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Alexander Popp, Christoph Müller
Multiple cropping increases land productivity by allowing multiple harvests per year, offering production gains without cropland expansion. Irrigation is especially critical in the seasonally dry tropics, enabling multiple cropping where otherwise only a single rainfed cycle would be feasible. Estimates of the current state of multiple cropping and the multiple cropping expansion potential without changes in irrigation patterns exist, but the multiple cropping expansion potential through irrigation expansion has not yet been assessed at the global scale. Here, we estimate multiple cropping expansion potentials on existing cropland considering the interaction with irrigation and local water availability constraints to determine how much cropland area can be managed in multiple cropping systems and the associated increases in annual yields and crop production. We find that, under current climatic conditions, there is considerable global biophysical potential to expand multiple cropping on existing cropland, particularly when also expanding irrigation. Total global crop production could increase by 28% (from 4 200 mio. t DM to 5 400 mio. t DM). This gain stems from nearly quadrupling the area under rainfed multiple cropping, more than doubling multiple cropping area within already irrigated lands, and expanding irrigation into areas where it facilitates another growing season. Our study reveals a considerable multiple cropping expansion potential on existing cropland that-when tapped-could contribute to averting further cropland expansion to meet future demand for agricultural outputs. Local irrigation water availability constrains the irrigation-enabled multiple cropping potential, implying that the interaction of multiple cropping and irrigation is crucial to consider in comprehensive land and water assessments that account for biophysical and socio-economic constraints, sustainability criteria, and land competition under future global change.
复种通过允许每年多次收获来提高土地生产力,在不扩大耕地的情况下提供生产收益。在季节性干旱的热带地区,灌溉尤其重要,因为灌溉可以实现多次种植,否则只能进行一次旱作。在不改变灌溉方式的情况下,已有对复种现状和复种扩大潜力的估计,但尚未在全球范围内对通过灌溉扩大的复种扩大潜力进行评估。在这里,我们考虑到与灌溉和当地水资源可用性限制的相互作用,估计现有农田的复种扩大潜力,以确定在复种制度下可以管理多少耕地面积,以及相关的年产量和作物产量的增加。我们发现,在目前的气候条件下,在现有农田上扩大复种,特别是在扩大灌溉的同时,具有相当大的全球生物物理潜力。全球作物总产量可能增加28%(从42亿桶)。t DM ~ 5400 m (t DM)。这一增长源于雨养复种面积增加了近四倍,已灌溉土地的复种面积增加了一倍以上,并将灌溉扩大到有利于下一个生长季节的地区。我们的研究表明,现有农田具有相当大的复种扩展潜力,一旦开发出来,可能有助于避免进一步的农田扩张,以满足未来对农业产出的需求。当地灌溉水的可用性限制了灌溉带来的复种潜力,这意味着复种和灌溉的相互作用在综合土地和水评估中至关重要,该评估考虑了未来全球变化下的生物物理和社会经济约束、可持续性标准和土地竞争。
{"title":"Irrigation constraints shape the global potential for multiple cropping expansion on existing cropland.","authors":"Felicitas D Beier, Jens Heinke, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Kristine Karstens, Sebastian Ostberg, David Meng-Chuen Chen, David Hötten, Pascal Sauer, Gabriel Abrahão, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Alexander Popp, Christoph Müller","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae44ae","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae44ae","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Multiple cropping increases land productivity by allowing multiple harvests per year, offering production gains without cropland expansion. Irrigation is especially critical in the seasonally dry tropics, enabling multiple cropping where otherwise only a single rainfed cycle would be feasible. Estimates of the current state of multiple cropping and the multiple cropping expansion potential without changes in irrigation patterns exist, but the multiple cropping expansion potential through irrigation expansion has not yet been assessed at the global scale. Here, we estimate multiple cropping expansion potentials on existing cropland considering the interaction with irrigation and local water availability constraints to determine how much cropland area can be managed in multiple cropping systems and the associated increases in annual yields and crop production. We find that, under current climatic conditions, there is considerable global biophysical potential to expand multiple cropping on existing cropland, particularly when also expanding irrigation. Total global crop production could increase by 28% (from 4 200 mio. t DM to 5 400 mio. t DM). This gain stems from nearly quadrupling the area under rainfed multiple cropping, more than doubling multiple cropping area within already irrigated lands, and expanding irrigation into areas where it facilitates another growing season. Our study reveals a considerable multiple cropping expansion potential on existing cropland that-when tapped-could contribute to averting further cropland expansion to meet future demand for agricultural outputs. Local irrigation water availability constrains the irrigation-enabled multiple cropping potential, implying that the interaction of multiple cropping and irrigation is crucial to consider in comprehensive land and water assessments that account for biophysical and socio-economic constraints, sustainability criteria, and land competition under future global change.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"21 5","pages":"054005"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12965323/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147376405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2026-01-19DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae3591
M A North, N B Hunter, K Queenan, R Slotow
Livestock underpin livelihoods and food security in Africa, using marginal lands to produce high-quality protein for the household or as a source of income. For mixed farmers, livestock provide draught power, manure for fields, and buffer variations in crop productivity. Livestock also hold cultural significance. However, African livestock farmers are especially vulnerable to climate hazards, and attempt to reduce impacts in different ways, with varied outcomes. A synthesis of the state of knowledge of livestock farmers' responses to climate variability and change would assist policymakers and practitioners to make informed decisions, and guide researchers towards gaps that need to be filled. To that end, we systematically reviewed articles published between 2014 and 2022-the period between the end of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment and the end of the Sixth, recording study metadata, farmers' responses, and their drivers, outcomes, barriers and enablers. We included 186 articles from 32 countries (most frequently Kenya or Ethiopia), from which 1089 responses were coded for analysis. Responses by small-scale farmers of cattle, sheep and goats, typically as part of mixed crop-livestock systems, were most common (n = 816), with few documented responses of commercial farmers (121). Most responses pertained to changing herd management (437), followed by feed or pasture management (294). Drought was the most common climate driver of responses (567), while the most commonly mentioned barriers included financial constraints (116), a lack of knowledge or information (98), and government support (67). While there is a sizable body of literature on climate impacts and adaptation of livestock farmers, notable gaps included any work in Central and Northern Africa, and responses of commercial farming systems. In general, future research should focus on these gaps and on improving the depth of information collected, such as on barriers and enablers of adaptation, to better inform future interventions.
{"title":"How are African livestock farmers responding to climate variability and change? A systematic review.","authors":"M A North, N B Hunter, K Queenan, R Slotow","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae3591","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae3591","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Livestock underpin livelihoods and food security in Africa, using marginal lands to produce high-quality protein for the household or as a source of income. For mixed farmers, livestock provide draught power, manure for fields, and buffer variations in crop productivity. Livestock also hold cultural significance. However, African livestock farmers are especially vulnerable to climate hazards, and attempt to reduce impacts in different ways, with varied outcomes. A synthesis of the state of knowledge of livestock farmers' responses to climate variability and change would assist policymakers and practitioners to make informed decisions, and guide researchers towards gaps that need to be filled. To that end, we systematically reviewed articles published between 2014 and 2022-the period between the end of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment and the end of the Sixth, recording study metadata, farmers' responses, and their drivers, outcomes, barriers and enablers. We included 186 articles from 32 countries (most frequently Kenya or Ethiopia), from which 1089 responses were coded for analysis. Responses by small-scale farmers of cattle, sheep and goats, typically as part of mixed crop-livestock systems, were most common (<i>n</i> = 816), with few documented responses of commercial farmers (121). Most responses pertained to changing herd management (437), followed by feed or pasture management (294). Drought was the most common climate driver of responses (567), while the most commonly mentioned barriers included financial constraints (116), a lack of knowledge or information (98), and government support (67). While there is a sizable body of literature on climate impacts and adaptation of livestock farmers, notable gaps included any work in Central and Northern Africa, and responses of commercial farming systems. In general, future research should focus on these gaps and on improving the depth of information collected, such as on barriers and enablers of adaptation, to better inform future interventions.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"21 2","pages":"023002"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12817263/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146017935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-12-02DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae20a4
Edson J Ascencio, Antony Barja, Jose Montes-Alvis, Josiah L Kephart, Nelson Gouveia, Daniel A Rodriguez, Tarik Benmarhnia, Ana V Diez Roux, Usama Bilal, J Jaime Miranda, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar
Background. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading global health risk. Latin American cities exhibit some of the world's highest urban PM2.5 levels, yet studies of neighborhood-level PM2.5 exposure and associated disparities in the region are limited. Methods. We conducted a cross-sectional ecological analysis of 53 041 neighborhoods across 340 cities in eight Latin American countries, leveraging the Salud Urbana en America Latina study dataset. Annual PM2.5 concentrations were derived from satellite data and linked to socioeconomic and urban characteristics. A multilevel model analyzed associations between neighborhood PM2.5 levels and neighborhood- and city-level characteristics. Results. The median annual neighborhood PM2.5 concentration was 18.49 µg m-3. Of the 256 million residents, all lived in neighborhoods with ambient PM2.5 concentrations that exceeded the 2021 World Health Organization guidelines (5 µg m-3). Variability was greatest between cities (54.3% of total variance), but substantial within-city variation (26% of variance) was observed. Higher neighborhood PM2.5 levels were associated with higher neighborhood educational attainment (mean difference [MD] comparing top to bottom tertile = 0.17 µg m-3), higher neighborhood intersection density (MD comparing top to bottom tertile = 0.17 µg m-3), and older cities (MD comparing top to bottom tertile = 1.45 µg m-3). Lower neighborhood PM2.5 levels were related to higher neighborhood population density (MD comparing top to bottom tertile = - 0.55 µg m-3), more greenness (MD comparing top to bottom tertile = - 0.76 µg m-3), and larger distance from city centers (MD comparing top to bottom tertile = - 0.86 µg m-3). Conclusions. Neighborhoods with higher PM2.5 concentrations tended to have higher educational attainment, more intersections, and be located in older cities, while lower concentrations were associated with denser populations, more green space, and greater distance from city centers. Our findings reveal important within-city heterogeneity in PM2.5 and the factors associated with it, suggesting strategies to mitigate air pollution within cities.
背景。细颗粒物(PM2.5)是全球主要的健康风险。拉丁美洲的一些城市是世界上PM2.5水平最高的城市之一,但对该地区社区PM2.5暴露和相关差异的研究有限。方法。我们利用Salud Urbana en America Latina研究数据集,对8个拉丁美洲国家340个城市的53041个社区进行了横断面生态分析。PM2.5的年浓度来源于卫星数据,并与社会经济和城市特征有关。一个多层次模型分析了社区PM2.5水平与社区和城市水平特征之间的关系。结果。邻里PM2.5年均浓度中位数为18.49µg -3。在2.56亿居民中,所有居民居住的社区的环境PM2.5浓度都超过了2021年世界卫生组织的指导方针(5微克-3)。城市之间的差异最大(占总方差的54.3%),但城市内部的差异很大(占方差的26%)。较高的邻里PM2.5水平与较高的邻里受教育程度(顶层与底层的平均差值[MD]比较= 0.17µg -3)、较高的邻里交叉密度(顶层与底层的MD比较= 0.17µg -3)以及较老的城市(顶层与底层的MD比较= 1.45µg -3)相关。较低的邻里PM2.5水平与较高的邻里人口密度(上层与下层的MD比较= - 0.55µg m-3)、更多的绿化(上层与下层的MD比较= - 0.76µg m-3)以及距离城市中心较远(上层与下层的MD比较= - 0.86µg m-3)有关。结论。PM2.5浓度较高的社区往往受教育程度更高、十字路口更多、位于老城市,而浓度较低的社区则与人口密度更大、绿地更多、距离市中心更远有关。我们的研究结果揭示了PM2.5在城市内部的重要异质性及其相关因素,为缓解城市空气污染提出了策略。
{"title":"Urban and socioeconomic disparities in PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure across 340 Latin American cities.","authors":"Edson J Ascencio, Antony Barja, Jose Montes-Alvis, Josiah L Kephart, Nelson Gouveia, Daniel A Rodriguez, Tarik Benmarhnia, Ana V Diez Roux, Usama Bilal, J Jaime Miranda, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae20a4","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae20a4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><i>Background.</i> Fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) is a leading global health risk. Latin American cities exhibit some of the world's highest urban PM<sub>2.5</sub> levels, yet studies of neighborhood-level PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure and associated disparities in the region are limited. <i>Methods.</i> We conducted a cross-sectional ecological analysis of 53 041 neighborhoods across 340 cities in eight Latin American countries, leveraging the Salud Urbana en America Latina study dataset. Annual PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations were derived from satellite data and linked to socioeconomic and urban characteristics. A multilevel model analyzed associations between neighborhood PM<sub>2.5</sub> levels and neighborhood- and city-level characteristics. <i>Results.</i> The median annual neighborhood PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration was 18.49 <i>µ</i>g m<sup>-3</sup>. Of the 256 million residents, all lived in neighborhoods with ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations that exceeded the 2021 World Health Organization guidelines (5 <i>µ</i>g m<sup>-3</sup>). Variability was greatest between cities (54.3% of total variance), but substantial within-city variation (26% of variance) was observed. Higher neighborhood PM<sub>2.5</sub> levels were associated with higher neighborhood educational attainment (mean difference [MD] comparing top to bottom tertile = 0.17 <i>µ</i>g m<sup>-3</sup>), higher neighborhood intersection density (MD comparing top to bottom tertile = 0.17 <i>µ</i>g m<sup>-3</sup>), and older cities (MD comparing top to bottom tertile = 1.45 <i>µ</i>g m<sup>-3</sup>). Lower neighborhood PM<sub>2.5</sub> levels were related to higher neighborhood population density (MD comparing top to bottom tertile = - 0.55 <i>µ</i>g m<sup>-3</sup>), more greenness (MD comparing top to bottom tertile = - 0.76 <i>µ</i>g m<sup>-3</sup>), and larger distance from city centers (MD comparing top to bottom tertile = - 0.86 <i>µ</i>g m<sup>-3</sup>). <i>Conclusions.</i> Neighborhoods with higher PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations tended to have higher educational attainment, more intersections, and be located in older cities, while lower concentrations were associated with denser populations, more green space, and greater distance from city centers. Our findings reveal important within-city heterogeneity in PM<sub>2.5</sub> and the factors associated with it, suggesting strategies to mitigate air pollution within cities.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"20 12","pages":"124044"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12673636/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145676885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-11-24DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae1f2c
Jean Remy Kubwimana, Sierra N Clark, James Nimo, Chantal Umutoni, Pacifique Karekezi, Barbara E Mottey, Claudette Nyinawumuntu, Samson Niyizurugero, Silas S Mirau, Pie-Celestin Hakizimana, Isambi S Mbalawata, Paterne Gahungu, Majid Ezzati, Allison F Hughes, Raphael E Arku
As cities in sub-Saharan Africa become more crowded, noise pollution is also emerging as an important environmental concern, after air pollution. Yet, unlike air pollution, which is enjoying relatively more public attention, there is limited measurement data and policy efforts on environmental noise pollution. We followed a recent city-wide measurement approach used in Accra (Ghana) and characterized environmental noise patterns in Kigali, a contrasting city with very different topography and regulatory system than Accra to inform urban policy. We established 10 'fixed' (yearlong) and 120 'rotating' (weeklong) monitoring sites to capture both the temporal and spatial patterns in Kigali's sound environment. The measurement occurred between November 2022 and December 2023, and samples were collected at 1 min interval, resulting in 5155 014 (3580 site-days) and 1190 620 (827 site-days) site-minutes of valid data from the fixed and rotating sites, respectively. The 130 monitoring sites covered a variety of geographic and land-use factors across diverse neighborhoods and sources. We computed several noise metrics, including 1 h (LAeq1 h), daily (LAeq24 h), day-time (Lday), and night-time (Lnight). Daily noise (LAeq24 h) levels across the city ranged between 38 dBA and 85 dBA. Commercial, business, and industrial (CBI) and high-density residential (HD) communities experienced the highest noise levels, with some sites constantly above 70 dBA at day and 65 dBA at night. About 63% of our observed day-time values (up to ~72% in some areas) exceeded the Rwandan day-time standard (55 dBA) for residential areas, whereas 69% of the observed night-time values (up to 80% in some areas) exceeded the corresponding night-time standard (45 dBA). In Nyarugenge, the most urbanized district, as much as 75% of our site-days data exceeded day-time standard. However diurnal patterns throughout the city were similar, rising from ~5 am, peaking at about 8 am and plateauing until 6 pm before falling to their lowest at midnight. Overall, noise levels in the city did not vary much by day of the week, weekdays vs weekend, or dry vs wet seasons. Environmental noise in Kigali often exceeded both Rwandan standards and international guidelines, with residents in the city center district, CBI and HD areas at risk of higher exposure, and hence higher risk of adverse effects. Detailed assessment of the sources, at-risk population, and associated health effects may inform Rwandan's environmental policy efforts and city initiatives in the face of the ongoing urban growth and densification.
{"title":"City-wide space-time patterns of environmental noise pollution in Kigali, Rwanda.","authors":"Jean Remy Kubwimana, Sierra N Clark, James Nimo, Chantal Umutoni, Pacifique Karekezi, Barbara E Mottey, Claudette Nyinawumuntu, Samson Niyizurugero, Silas S Mirau, Pie-Celestin Hakizimana, Isambi S Mbalawata, Paterne Gahungu, Majid Ezzati, Allison F Hughes, Raphael E Arku","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae1f2c","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae1f2c","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As cities in sub-Saharan Africa become more crowded, noise pollution is also emerging as an important environmental concern, after air pollution. Yet, unlike air pollution, which is enjoying relatively more public attention, there is limited measurement data and policy efforts on environmental noise pollution. We followed a recent city-wide measurement approach used in Accra (Ghana) and characterized environmental noise patterns in Kigali, a contrasting city with very different topography and regulatory system than Accra to inform urban policy. We established 10 'fixed' (yearlong) and 120 'rotating' (weeklong) monitoring sites to capture both the temporal and spatial patterns in Kigali's sound environment. The measurement occurred between November 2022 and December 2023, and samples were collected at 1 min interval, resulting in 5155 014 (3580 site-days) and 1190 620 (827 site-days) site-minutes of valid data from the fixed and rotating sites, respectively. The 130 monitoring sites covered a variety of geographic and land-use factors across diverse neighborhoods and sources. We computed several noise metrics, including 1 h (LAeq<sub>1 h</sub>), daily (LAeq<sub>24 h</sub>), day-time (<i>L</i> <sub>day</sub>), and night-time (<i>L</i> <sub>night</sub>). Daily noise (LAeq<sub>24 h</sub>) levels across the city ranged between 38 dBA and 85 dBA. Commercial, business, and industrial (CBI) and high-density residential (HD) communities experienced the highest noise levels, with some sites constantly above 70 dBA at day and 65 dBA at night. About 63% of our observed day-time values (up to ~72% in some areas) exceeded the Rwandan day-time standard (55 dBA) for residential areas, whereas 69% of the observed night-time values (up to 80% in some areas) exceeded the corresponding night-time standard (45 dBA). In Nyarugenge, the most urbanized district, as much as 75% of our site-days data exceeded day-time standard. However diurnal patterns throughout the city were similar, rising from ~5 am, peaking at about 8 am and plateauing until 6 pm before falling to their lowest at midnight. Overall, noise levels in the city did not vary much by day of the week, weekdays vs weekend, or dry vs wet seasons. Environmental noise in Kigali often exceeded both Rwandan standards and international guidelines, with residents in the city center district, CBI and HD areas at risk of higher exposure, and hence higher risk of adverse effects. Detailed assessment of the sources, at-risk population, and associated health effects may inform Rwandan's environmental policy efforts and city initiatives in the face of the ongoing urban growth and densification.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"20 12","pages":"124024"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7618465/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145755507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-12-23DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae2775
Aleš Urban, Veronika Huber, Salomé Henry, Nuria Pilar Plaza, Lucie Tušlová, Shouro Dasgupta, Pierre Masselot, Ivana Cvijanovic, Malcolm Mistry, Mathilde Pascal, Francesca de'Donato, Claudia Di Napoli, Simon N Gosling, Silvia Kohnová, Jan Kyselý, Samuel Lüthi, Louis-François Pau, Martina S Ragettli, Reija Ruuhela, Niilo Ryti, Susana Das Neves Pereira da Silva, Shiri Zemah-Shamir, Wim Thiery, Ana-Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Joanna Wieczorek, Francesco Sera, Ben Armstrong, Antonio Gasparrini
Heat-health warning systems and action plans, referred to as heat prevention plans (HPPs), are key public health interventions aimed at reducing heat-related mortality. Despite their importance, prior assessments of their effectiveness have yielded inconsistent results. The objective of this study is to systematically assess the effectiveness of HPPs in reducing heat-related mortality risk across Europe. We analysed daily mortality and mean temperature data from 102 locations in 14 European countries between 1990 and 2019. Using data from national experts, we identified the year of HPP implementation and categorised their development class. A three-stage analysis was conducted: (1) quasi-Poisson time series models were used to estimate location-specific warm-season exposure-response functions in 3 year subperiods; (2) mixed-effect meta-regression models with multilevel longitudinal structures were employed to quantify changes in pooled exposure-response functions due to HPP implementation, adjusted for long-term trends in heat-related mortality risks; and (3) the heat-related excess mortality due to HPP was calculated by comparing factual (with HPP) and counterfactual (without HPP) scenarios. Estimates are reported by country, region, and HPP class. HPP implementation was associated with a 25.2% [95% CI: 19.8% to 31.9%] reduction in excess deaths attributable to extreme heat, corresponding to 1.8 [95% CI: 1.3-2.4] avoided deaths annually per 100 000 inhabitants. This equates to an estimated 14 551 [95% CI: 10 118-19 072] total deaths avoided across all study locations following HPP implementation. No significant differences in HPP effectiveness were observed by European region or HPP class. Our findings provide robust evidence that HPPs substantially reduce heat-related mortality across Europe, accounting for temporal changes and geographical differences in risks. These results emphasise the importance of monitoring and evaluating HPPs to enhance adaptation to a warming climate.
{"title":"The effectiveness of heat prevention plans in reducing heat-related mortality across Europe.","authors":"Aleš Urban, Veronika Huber, Salomé Henry, Nuria Pilar Plaza, Lucie Tušlová, Shouro Dasgupta, Pierre Masselot, Ivana Cvijanovic, Malcolm Mistry, Mathilde Pascal, Francesca de'Donato, Claudia Di Napoli, Simon N Gosling, Silvia Kohnová, Jan Kyselý, Samuel Lüthi, Louis-François Pau, Martina S Ragettli, Reija Ruuhela, Niilo Ryti, Susana Das Neves Pereira da Silva, Shiri Zemah-Shamir, Wim Thiery, Ana-Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Joanna Wieczorek, Francesco Sera, Ben Armstrong, Antonio Gasparrini","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae2775","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae2775","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Heat-health warning systems and action plans, referred to as heat prevention plans (HPPs), are key public health interventions aimed at reducing heat-related mortality. Despite their importance, prior assessments of their effectiveness have yielded inconsistent results. The objective of this study is to systematically assess the effectiveness of HPPs in reducing heat-related mortality risk across Europe. We analysed daily mortality and mean temperature data from 102 locations in 14 European countries between 1990 and 2019. Using data from national experts, we identified the year of HPP implementation and categorised their development class. A three-stage analysis was conducted: (1) quasi-Poisson time series models were used to estimate location-specific warm-season exposure-response functions in 3 year subperiods; (2) mixed-effect meta-regression models with multilevel longitudinal structures were employed to quantify changes in pooled exposure-response functions due to HPP implementation, adjusted for long-term trends in heat-related mortality risks; and (3) the heat-related excess mortality due to HPP was calculated by comparing factual (with HPP) and counterfactual (without HPP) scenarios. Estimates are reported by country, region, and HPP class. HPP implementation was associated with a 25.2% [95% CI: 19.8% to 31.9%] reduction in excess deaths attributable to extreme heat, corresponding to 1.8 [95% CI: 1.3-2.4] avoided deaths annually per 100 000 inhabitants. This equates to an estimated 14 551 [95% CI: 10 118-19 072] total deaths avoided across all study locations following HPP implementation. No significant differences in HPP effectiveness were observed by European region or HPP class. Our findings provide robust evidence that HPPs substantially reduce heat-related mortality across Europe, accounting for temporal changes and geographical differences in risks. These results emphasise the importance of monitoring and evaluating HPPs to enhance adaptation to a warming climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"20 12","pages":"124071"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12724396/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145827049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae09bc
Yusuf Jamal, Courtney C Murdock, Rajendra Kumar Baharia, Rajesh Sharma, Keshav Vaishnav, Vikas Desai, Vijay Kohli, Ajeet Kumar Mohanty, Mercedes Pascual, Sachin Sharma, Anup Anvikar, Michael C Wimberly
As global temperatures rise due to climate change, urban heat islands have emerged as an important public health concern, significantly exacerbating heat stress in urban populations. Meteorological data is critical for assessing heat stress, and localized microclimate data provide more precise measurements of heat hazards than traditional weather station data. Our study explored microclimate patterns in space and time in tropical cities with rapidly growing urban populations and warming climates. We established a microclimate monitoring network with sensors measuring air temperature and relative humidity throughout two large cities in Gujarat, India. We collected hourly microclimate data on temperature and humidity from April 2023 to May 2024 from paired indoor/outdoor sensors at 48 homes in Ahmedabad and 45 homes in Surat. We summarized dry bulb (T) and wet-bulb (Tw) temperatures at indoor and outdoor locations, compared temporal patterns across seasons and times of the day, and investigated relationships with urban land cover. Indoor and outdoor microclimates had different diurnal variations, with distinctive patterns during the monsoon compared to other seasons. Building volume had warming effects and vegetation had cooling effects on minimum T and Tw, particularly at outdoor locations. In contrast, building volume had cooling effects and vegetation had warming effects on maximum T and Tw, particularly at indoor locations. Temperatures were consistently cooler at locations with higher albedo, and relationships with water were weaker and more variable. A model comparison found significant differences in land cover effects for indoor versus outdoor locations. Given the increasing occurrence of heat waves and climate-related health threats in western India and other tropical areas, it will be essential to account for the different spatial and temporal patterns of indoor and outdoor microclimates to more precisely identify locations and timings of temperature extremes.
{"title":"Spatiotemporal patterns of urban heat in indoor and outdoor microclimates.","authors":"Yusuf Jamal, Courtney C Murdock, Rajendra Kumar Baharia, Rajesh Sharma, Keshav Vaishnav, Vikas Desai, Vijay Kohli, Ajeet Kumar Mohanty, Mercedes Pascual, Sachin Sharma, Anup Anvikar, Michael C Wimberly","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae09bc","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae09bc","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As global temperatures rise due to climate change, urban heat islands have emerged as an important public health concern, significantly exacerbating heat stress in urban populations. Meteorological data is critical for assessing heat stress, and localized microclimate data provide more precise measurements of heat hazards than traditional weather station data. Our study explored microclimate patterns in space and time in tropical cities with rapidly growing urban populations and warming climates. We established a microclimate monitoring network with sensors measuring air temperature and relative humidity throughout two large cities in Gujarat, India. We collected hourly microclimate data on temperature and humidity from April 2023 to May 2024 from paired indoor/outdoor sensors at 48 homes in Ahmedabad and 45 homes in Surat. We summarized dry bulb (<i>T</i>) and wet-bulb (<i>T</i> <sub>w</sub>) temperatures at indoor and outdoor locations, compared temporal patterns across seasons and times of the day, and investigated relationships with urban land cover. Indoor and outdoor microclimates had different diurnal variations, with distinctive patterns during the monsoon compared to other seasons. Building volume had warming effects and vegetation had cooling effects on minimum <i>T</i> and <i>T</i> <sub>w</sub>, particularly at outdoor locations. In contrast, building volume had cooling effects and vegetation had warming effects on maximum <i>T</i> and <i>T</i> <sub>w</sub>, particularly at indoor locations. Temperatures were consistently cooler at locations with higher albedo, and relationships with water were weaker and more variable. A model comparison found significant differences in land cover effects for indoor versus outdoor locations. Given the increasing occurrence of heat waves and climate-related health threats in western India and other tropical areas, it will be essential to account for the different spatial and temporal patterns of indoor and outdoor microclimates to more precisely identify locations and timings of temperature extremes.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"20 11","pages":"114050"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12560947/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145399804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-11-17DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae0da6
Jonathan J Buonocore, Fintan A Mooney, Erin J Campbell, Brian Sousa, Breanna van Loenen, M Patricia Fabian, Amruta Nori-Sarma, Mary D Willis
Fossil fuel energy infrastructure poses health risks for local communities, primarily due to the presence of air pollution emissions and other hazards. There is also evidence of racial/ethnic disparities in the siting of this infrastructure for select components. However, population counts and demographic composition near fossil fuel energy infrastructure have not been systematically characterized across all types, supply chain stages, and predominant fuel types. Here, we construct a dataset of 25 elements of fossil fuel energy infrastructure and characterize the populations living near this infrastructure (defined as within 800 m [∼0.5 mile] or 1.6 km [∼1 mile]). We estimated that 46.6 million people in the contiguous U.S., representing 14.1% of the population, live within 1.6 km of at least one piece of energy infrastructure, with racial/ethnic disparities observed across nearly all stages of the supply chain. End use infrastructure has the most people residing within 1.6 km, with 20.9 million people, followed by extraction (20.3 million), and storage (6.16 million). Storage infrastructure has an average of ∼2,900 people living within 1.6 km of each element; end use infrastructure has an average of 1,900 people residing within 1.6 km of each element; extraction infrastructure has an average of 17 people residing within 1.6 km of each element. Almost 90% of the population near end use, transportation, refining, and storage infrastructure are in urban areas. Our results represent a substantial population in the U.S. that is potentially exposed to hazards that are not well-characterized, with unknown cumulative impacts, and which constitute a major environmental justice issue.
{"title":"High populations near fossil fuel energy infrastructure across the supply chain and implications for an equitable energy transition.","authors":"Jonathan J Buonocore, Fintan A Mooney, Erin J Campbell, Brian Sousa, Breanna van Loenen, M Patricia Fabian, Amruta Nori-Sarma, Mary D Willis","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae0da6","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae0da6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Fossil fuel energy infrastructure poses health risks for local communities, primarily due to the presence of air pollution emissions and other hazards. There is also evidence of racial/ethnic disparities in the siting of this infrastructure for select components. However, population counts and demographic composition near fossil fuel energy infrastructure have not been systematically characterized across all types, supply chain stages, and predominant fuel types. Here, we construct a dataset of 25 elements of fossil fuel energy infrastructure and characterize the populations living near this infrastructure (defined as within 800 m [∼0.5 mile] or 1.6 km [∼1 mile]). We estimated that 46.6 million people in the contiguous U.S., representing 14.1% of the population, live within 1.6 km of at least one piece of energy infrastructure, with racial/ethnic disparities observed across nearly all stages of the supply chain. End use infrastructure has the most people residing within 1.6 km, with 20.9 million people, followed by extraction (20.3 million), and storage (6.16 million). Storage infrastructure has an average of ∼2,900 people living within 1.6 km of each element; end use infrastructure has an average of 1,900 people residing within 1.6 km of each element; extraction infrastructure has an average of 17 people residing within 1.6 km of each element. Almost 90% of the population near end use, transportation, refining, and storage infrastructure are in urban areas. Our results represent a substantial population in the U.S. that is potentially exposed to hazards that are not well-characterized, with unknown cumulative impacts, and which constitute a major environmental justice issue.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"20 11","pages":"114093"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12621303/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145548397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-10-17DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae10c9
Hao He, Timothy P Canty, Russell R Dickerson, Joel Dreessen, Amir Sapkota, Michel Boudreaux
Between June 6 and 8, 2023, wildfires in Quebec, Canada generated massive smoke plumes that traveled long distances and deteriorated air quality across the Northeastern United States (US). Surface daily PM2.5 observations exceeded 100 µg m-3, affecting major cities such as New York City and Philadelphia, while many areas lacked PM2.5 monitors, making it difficult to assess local air quality conditions. To address this gap, we developed a WRF-CMAQ-BenMAP modeling system to provide rapid, spatially continuous estimates of wildfire-attributable PM2.5 concentrations and associated health impacts, particularly benefiting regions lacking air quality monitoring. CMAQ simulations driven by two wildfire emissions datasets and two meteorological drivers showed good agreement with PM2.5 observations, with linear regression results of R2 ∼0.6 and slope ∼0.9. We further quantified uncertainties introduced by varying emissions and meteorological drivers and found the choice of wildfire emissions dataset alone can alter PM2.5 simulations by up to 40 µg m-3 (∼40%). Short-term health impacts were evaluated using the BenMAP model. Validation against asthma-associated emergency department (ED) visits in New York State confirmed the framework's ability to replicate real-world outcomes, with ED visits increased up to ∼40%. The modeling results identified counties most severely affected by wildfire plumes, the majority of which lack regulatory air quality monitors. Our approach highlights the value of integrated modeling for identifying vulnerable populations and delivering timely health burden estimates, regardless of local monitoring availability.
{"title":"Assessing PM<sub>2.5</sub> pollution in the Northeastern United States from the 2023 Canadian wildfire smoke: an episodic study integrating air quality and health impact modeling with emissions and meteorological uncertainty analysis.","authors":"Hao He, Timothy P Canty, Russell R Dickerson, Joel Dreessen, Amir Sapkota, Michel Boudreaux","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae10c9","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae10c9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Between June 6 and 8, 2023, wildfires in Quebec, Canada generated massive smoke plumes that traveled long distances and deteriorated air quality across the Northeastern United States (US). Surface daily PM<sub>2.5</sub> observations exceeded 100 <i>µ</i>g m<sup>-3</sup>, affecting major cities such as New York City and Philadelphia, while many areas lacked PM<sub>2.5</sub> monitors, making it difficult to assess local air quality conditions. To address this gap, we developed a WRF-CMAQ-BenMAP modeling system to provide rapid, spatially continuous estimates of wildfire-attributable PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations and associated health impacts, particularly benefiting regions lacking air quality monitoring. CMAQ simulations driven by two wildfire emissions datasets and two meteorological drivers showed good agreement with PM<sub>2.5</sub> observations, with linear regression results of <i>R<sup>2</sup></i> ∼0.6 and slope ∼0.9. We further quantified uncertainties introduced by varying emissions and meteorological drivers and found the choice of wildfire emissions dataset alone can alter PM<sub>2.5</sub> simulations by up to 40 <i>µ</i>g m<sup>-3</sup> (∼40%). Short-term health impacts were evaluated using the BenMAP model. Validation against asthma-associated emergency department (ED) visits in New York State confirmed the framework's ability to replicate real-world outcomes, with ED visits increased up to ∼40%. The modeling results identified counties most severely affected by wildfire plumes, the majority of which lack regulatory air quality monitors. Our approach highlights the value of integrated modeling for identifying vulnerable populations and delivering timely health burden estimates, regardless of local monitoring availability.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"20 11","pages":"114042"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12533810/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145328470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01Epub Date: 2025-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae013e
Francisco Díaz-Collado, Lingzhi Chu, Daniel Carrión, Pablo A Méndez-Lázaro, Kai Chen
The effects of a changing climate are already evident in Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS) like Puerto Rico, where heat episodes have become more frequent. Despite reports of increasing heat-related death rates, robust epidemiological evidence on the health impacts of high temperatures, as well as the effects of low temperatures, remains scarce, particularly outside of urban settlements in Caribbean SIDS. In this study, we conducted a case time-series study on municipality-level mortality and temperature in Puerto Rico from 2015-2023. We modeled the relationship between daily mortality count and mean temperature using a conditional quasi-Poisson regression, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (dlnm) with a 21 d lag, adjusting for relative humidity, seasonality, and day of the week. We estimated the minimum mortality temperature (MMT)-the optimal temperature associated with the lowest mortality risk-and calculated the relative risk associated with extreme low and high temperature, defined as the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of daily temperature. Additionally, we estimated the municipality- and island-level excess mortality fractions attributable to both low and high temperatures, relative to MMT. Our findings indicate that exposure to non-optimum temperatures (both low and high temperatures) is significantly associated with increased mortality risk. Specifically, extreme low temperature was associated with a 1.23 (95% CI: 1.07-1.40) times risk of all-cause mortality, while extreme high temperature was associated with a 1.16 (95% CI: 1.05-1.27) times risk. We estimated that temperature-related mortality accounted for 3.88% of the total 280 568 deaths (95% eCI: 3.39%-4.29%), with low temperatures contributing 2.02% (95% eCI: 1.69%-2.32%) and high temperatures contributing 1.86% (95% eCI: 1.35%-2.35%). Furthermore, we found substantial spatial variability in temperature-related mortality burdens across municipalities. Our study identifies the vulnerable municipalities to temperature-related deaths in Puerto Rico, providing evidence to inform municipality-specific climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.
{"title":"Mortality risk and burden associated with non-optimum temperatures in Puerto Rico.","authors":"Francisco Díaz-Collado, Lingzhi Chu, Daniel Carrión, Pablo A Méndez-Lázaro, Kai Chen","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae013e","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ae013e","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The effects of a changing climate are already evident in Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS) like Puerto Rico, where heat episodes have become more frequent. Despite reports of increasing heat-related death rates, robust epidemiological evidence on the health impacts of high temperatures, as well as the effects of low temperatures, remains scarce, particularly outside of urban settlements in Caribbean SIDS. In this study, we conducted a case time-series study on municipality-level mortality and temperature in Puerto Rico from 2015-2023. We modeled the relationship between daily mortality count and mean temperature using a conditional quasi-Poisson regression, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (dlnm) with a 21 d lag, adjusting for relative humidity, seasonality, and day of the week. We estimated the minimum mortality temperature (MMT)-the optimal temperature associated with the lowest mortality risk-and calculated the relative risk associated with extreme low and high temperature, defined as the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of daily temperature. Additionally, we estimated the municipality- and island-level excess mortality fractions attributable to both low and high temperatures, relative to MMT. Our findings indicate that exposure to non-optimum temperatures (both low and high temperatures) is significantly associated with increased mortality risk. Specifically, extreme low temperature was associated with a 1.23 (95% CI: 1.07-1.40) times risk of all-cause mortality, while extreme high temperature was associated with a 1.16 (95% CI: 1.05-1.27) times risk. We estimated that temperature-related mortality accounted for 3.88% of the total 280 568 deaths (95% eCI: 3.39%-4.29%), with low temperatures contributing 2.02% (95% eCI: 1.69%-2.32%) and high temperatures contributing 1.86% (95% eCI: 1.35%-2.35%). Furthermore, we found substantial spatial variability in temperature-related mortality burdens across municipalities. Our study identifies the vulnerable municipalities to temperature-related deaths in Puerto Rico, providing evidence to inform municipality-specific climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"20 10","pages":"104032"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12419553/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145039333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}