Impact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization: EMF37 MARKAL–NETL modeling results

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI:10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100143
Nadejda Victor , Christopher Nichols
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Abstract

This paper examines the MARKAL-NETL modeling results for the Energy Modeling Forum study on Deep Decarbonization and High Electrification Scenarios for North America (EMF 37) with a specific focus on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies and opportunities under different scenario guidelines, policies, and technological advancements.

The results demonstrate that CDR, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air capture (DAC), and afforestation, are key technologies in deep decarbonization scenarios and account for 40–60 % of avoided carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions annually. From 2025 to 2050, cumulative CO2 abatement by CDR technologies will range from 37 to 47 billion tons (GtCO2), or more than 2 GtCO2 annually by 2050. The potential scale of CDR and its impact depends on the advancement and costs of energy supply and demand technologies, end-use sector electrification, and availability and costs of CDR. Results show that the price of carbon is substantially lower when advanced technologies are available, particularly in the EMF 37 carbon management scenarios [1].

While BECCS deployment is likely to be constrained for environmental and/or political reasons, the results display relatively large-scale BECCS deployment. The study found that BECCS could make a substantial contribution to emissions reductions after 2035, and, in the medium term, CO2 sequestration by BECCS will depend on CO2 price; BECCS deployment starts at a carbon price of around $70/tCO2. Long-term CO2 sequestration by BECCS increases in all scenarios, reaching the same annual level of ∼890 MtCO2 by 2050 in net-zero CO2 scenarios. According to the modeling results, DAC acts as a true backstop technology at carbon prices of around $600/tCO2.

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二氧化碳清除技术对深度脱碳的影响:EMF37 MARKAL-NETL 建模结果
本文研究了能源建模论坛关于北美深度脱碳和高度电气化情景研究(EMF 37)的 MARKAL-NETL 建模结果,特别关注不同情景指南、政策和技术进步下的二氧化碳清除(CDR)技术和机遇。研究结果表明,碳捕集与封存生物能源(BECCS)、直接空气捕集(DAC)和植树造林等二氧化碳去除技术是深度脱碳情景中的关键技术,每年可避免 40% 至 60% 的二氧化碳(CO2)排放。从 2025 年到 2050 年,CDR 技术的累计二氧化碳减排量将在 370 亿吨到 470 亿吨(GtCO2)之间,或到 2050 年每年超过 2 GtCO2。CDR 的潜在规模及其影响取决于能源供应和需求技术的进步和成本、最终使用部门的电气化以及 CDR 的可用性和成本。研究结果表明,当先进技术可用时,碳价格会大幅降低,尤其是在 EMF 37 碳管理方案中[1]。虽然 BECCS 的部署可能会因环境和/或政治原因而受到限制,但研究结果显示 BECCS 的部署规模相对较大。研究发现,BECCS 在 2035 年后可对减排做出重大贡献,而在中期,BECCS 的二氧化碳封存将取决于二氧化碳价格;BECCS 的部署始于约 70 美元/吨二氧化碳的碳价格。在所有情景下,BECCS 的长期二氧化碳封存量都会增加,到 2050 年,在净零二氧化碳情景下,BECCS 的年封存量将达到 8.9 亿吨二氧化碳。根据建模结果,在碳价格约为 600 美元/吨 CO2 时,DAC 是一种真正的后备技术。
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来源期刊
Energy and climate change
Energy and climate change Global and Planetary Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
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7.90
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