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Comparing green hydrogen and green ammonia as energy carriers in utility-scale transport and subsurface storage 比较绿色氢气和绿色氨气作为能源载体在公用事业规模运输和地下储存中的应用
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100163
Many of the challenges associated with utility-scale hydrogen transport and storage relate to its low density, high diffusivity, and the risk of hydrogen embrittlement, motivating consideration to integrating ammonia as an energy carrier. Compared to hydrogen, ammonia is more compatible with pipeline materials and delivers energy at higher density. Ammonia is also a mature industry with a greater extent of established pipeline networks and regulations that may accelerate hydrogen transitions and penetration in energy grids. However, converting hydrogen produced by renewable-driven electrolysis into ammonia (and back to hydrogen, depending on end use) complicates logistics, and associated energy and resource demands may offset the green hydrogen's carbon neutrality. This work outlines core considerations for the use of hydrogen vs. ammonia during transport and storage operations, with an emphasis on green hydrogen or green ammonia pathways coupled to pipeline transport and underground storage. We compare tradeoffs in pipeline infrastructure and operations; subsurface storage options; and project economics. We also evaluate round-trip efficiencies (RTE) for both pathways, which indicate that hydrogen is more attractive from an energy efficiency perspective for hydrogen end-use applications due to the efficiency penalties of initial ammonia synthesis and subsequent cracking, but RTE's for ammonia transport and storage are comparable to hydrogen for direct use or ammonia-to-power systems. The tradeoffs presented in this work would need to be considered on a case-by-case basis, but indicate that selective use of ammonia as an energy-dense hydrogen carrier could support decarbonization goals in industry and hydrogen economies.
公用事业规模的氢气运输和储存所面临的许多挑战与氢气的低密度、高扩散性和氢脆风险有关,这促使人们考虑将氨作为一种能源载体。与氢气相比,氨气与管道材料的兼容性更强,可提供更高密度的能量。氨也是一个成熟的行业,拥有更广泛的成熟管道网络和法规,可以加速氢在能源网中的过渡和渗透。然而,将可再生电解产生的氢转化为氨(根据最终用途再转化为氢)会使物流变得复杂,而且相关的能源和资源需求可能会抵消绿色氢气的碳中性。这项工作概述了在运输和储存过程中使用氢气与氨气的核心考虑因素,重点是与管道运输和地下储存相结合的绿色氢气或绿色氨气途径。我们比较了管道基础设施和运营、地下储存选项以及项目经济性方面的权衡。我们还对两种途径的往返效率(RTE)进行了评估,结果表明,由于初始氨合成和后续裂解的效率损失,从能源效率的角度来看,氢气对氢气终端应用更具吸引力,但氨气运输和储存的往返效率与直接使用氢气或氨气发电系统相当。这项工作中提出的权衡问题需要根据具体情况进行考虑,但表明有选择地使用氨作为高能量氢载体可支持工业和氢经济的脱碳目标。
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引用次数: 0
Global trade of green iron as a game changer for a near-zero global steel industry? - A scenario-based assessment of regionalized impacts 全球生铁贸易能否改变全球钢铁业接近零增长的局面?- 基于情景的区域化影响评估
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100161
The currently most promising approach for reducing CO2 emissions of the global steel production is reducing iron ore in shaft furnaces with (green) hydrogen instead of blast furnaces. Unlike to the liquid iron produced in blast furnaces, the direct reduced iron produced in this route (green iron) exists in a solid state and can be transported at reasonable costs over long distances. This allows for spatial decoupling of the iron reduction step from the steelmaking step and may lead to global trade in green iron as a new intermediate product in the steelmaking value chain. This article assesses the potential impact of a global green iron trade in terms of shifting energy demand between regions and in terms of cost savings by comparing three scenarios for a global near-zero GHG steel industry: The Domestic scenario, assuming strict regional co-location of green iron and steel production; The Max Trade scenario, assuming early emergence of a global green iron market and the Intermediate Trade scenario, assuming late emergence of a global green iron market. In the trade scenarios, 12-21% of global crude steel is produced from traded green iron in 2050. 15-26 Mt/a of hydrogen consumption is relocated to global “sweet spots”, resulting in cost savings of 2.2-3.9% of the global annual steel production costs, which can provide important support for the development of net zero steel production. Enablers and barriers for global green iron trade are discussed.
目前,全球钢铁生产中最有希望减少二氧化碳排放的方法是在竖炉中用(绿色)氢气代替高炉还原铁矿石。与高炉生产的液态铁不同,这种方法生产的直接还原铁(绿铁)呈固态,可以合理的成本进行远距离运输。这使得还原铁生产步骤与炼钢步骤在空间上脱钩,并可能导致生铁作为炼钢价值链中新的中间产品进行全球贸易。本文通过比较全球近零温室气体钢铁工业的三种情景,评估了全球绿铁贸易在地区间能源需求转移和成本节约方面的潜在影响:国内情景,假定绿铁和钢铁生产严格实行区域同地生产;最大贸易情景,假定全球绿铁市场较早出现;中间贸易情景,假定全球绿铁市场较晚出现。在贸易情景下,2050 年全球粗钢中有 12%-21% 是由贸易绿铁生产的。1,500 万-2,600 万吨/年的氢气消耗被转移到全球 "甜蜜点",从而节省了全球钢铁年生产成本的 2.2%-3.9%,为发展净零钢铁生产提供了重要支持。讨论了全球绿色钢铁贸易的促进因素和障碍。
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引用次数: 0
Strategic approach to accelerating regional bioenergy development: Bioelectricity for emission reduction and sustainability 加快地区生物能源发展的战略方法:生物电力促进减排和可持续性
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100162
The western Himalayas hold significant potential for generating bioelectricity from dry pine needle biomass. This approach provides multiple benefits, including forest fire prevention, electricity generation, and emission reduction. However, despite these advantages, the growth of this sector has fallen short of expectations. The projected electricity generation potential from pine needle biomass in this region could lead to a significant annual emission reduction of 1.7 MtCO2e through forest fire prevention and an additional 0.49 MtCO2e by displacing carbon-intensive grid electricity. Regional bioenergy development plays a crucial role in the global energy transition and aligns with SDG 13, "Climate Action," and SDG 7, "Affordable and Clean Energy." By focusing on bioenergy as a renewable and accessible energy source, local and regional communities can contribute to climate action while simultaneously ensuring affordable and clean energy for their communities. Therefore, this paper employs a hybrid SWOT-AHP analysis as a strategic planning tool to achieve emission reduction targets by stimulating regional bioenergy growth. Twenty-nine SWOT factors were identified under four variables, and then the AHP technique was employed to assign priority weights to both SWOT variables and factors. Combining SWOT with AHP analysis provides quantitatively determined priorities for the factors, enabling their objective comparison. Eventually, this study offers a comprehensive perspective that leads to policy recommendations and serves as a valuable resource for relevant stakeholders, policymakers, and researchers seeking to achieve emission reduction goals through bioelectricity generation.
喜马拉雅山西部蕴藏着利用干松针生物质进行生物发电的巨大潜力。这种方法可带来多重益处,包括预防森林火灾、发电和减排。然而,尽管有这些优势,这一领域的发展却没有达到预期。根据预测,该地区利用松针生物质发电的潜力可通过森林防火每年减少 170 万吨二氧化碳当量的排放量,并通过替代碳密集型电网电力每年减少 49 万吨二氧化碳当量的排放量。区域生物能源开发在全球能源转型中发挥着至关重要的作用,并与可持续发展目标 13 "气候行动 "和可持续发展目标 7 "负担得起的清洁能源 "相一致。通过将生物能源作为一种可再生、可获得的能源,地方和区域社区可以为气候行动做出贡献,同时确保为其社区提供负担得起的清洁能源。因此,本文采用 SWOT-AHP 混合分析法作为战略规划工具,通过刺激地区生物能源增长来实现减排目标。在四个变量下确定了 29 个 SWOT 因素,然后采用 AHP 技术为 SWOT 变量和因素分配优先权重。将 SWOT 分析与 AHP 分析相结合,可定量确定各因素的优先级,从而对其进行客观比较。最终,本研究提供了一个全面的视角,提出了政策建议,为相关利益方、政策制定者和研究人员通过生物发电实现减排目标提供了宝贵的资源。
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引用次数: 0
The role of the pulp and paper industry in achieving net zero U.S. CO2 emissions in 2050 纸浆和造纸业在 2050 年实现美国二氧化碳净零排放中的作用
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100160
The pulp and paper industry is energy-intensive, making up about 9 % of total United States industrial energy consumption and 2.5 % of U.S. industrial greenhouse gas emissions. The pulp and paper industry is unique among industrial sectors due to its existing reliance on waste biomass to generate energy for mill operations. Pulp and paper mills could theoretically offer opportunities for negative emissions through carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies along with use of biomass. In addition, the paper sector's use of low-temperature industrial heat creates opportunities for CO2 reductions through electrification technologies.
We employ the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to evaluate decarbonization pathways for the pulp and paper sector in the United States, as well as the sector's role in a net zero scenario and impacts on the energy, land, and water sectors. The version of GCAM used in this study includes detailed representation of major industrial sectors, including the pulp and paper industry. Representation of the linkage between forest products and paper production allow us to account for upstream carbon emissions, sequestration, and land-use impacts.
Preliminary results under a pathway to net zero U.S. CO2 emissions in 2050 show that the pulp and paper industry can reach net zero CO2 emissions before 2050, earlier than the overall energy system, and contribute negative emissions thereafter. Use of fossil fuels is significantly reduced by 2050, shifting to increased electricity use in process heat generation. Consumption of biomass energy in process heat also increases compared to the reference scenario. Though paper production decreases in the policy scenario in response to higher prices of wood products, a high carbon price can incentivize increased use of biomass with CCS and thus paper production. Negative emissions opportunities in the paper industry have impacts on the land sector. Increasing use of biomass accelerates the shift from unmanaged to managed forests, with associated tradeoffs between technological carbon sequestration and natural ecosystem services.
纸浆和造纸工业是能源密集型产业,约占美国工业能源消耗总量的 9%,占美国工业温室气体排放量的 2.5%。纸浆和造纸业在工业部门中是独一无二的,因为它目前依赖废弃生物质为工厂运营提供能源。理论上,纸浆和造纸厂可以通过碳捕集与封存 (CCS) 技术以及生物质的使用来实现负排放。我们采用全球变化分析模型(GCAM)来评估美国纸浆和造纸行业的脱碳途径,以及该行业在净零情景中的作用和对能源、土地和水行业的影响。本研究使用的 GCAM 版本包括主要工业部门的详细表述,其中包括纸浆和造纸行业。在 2050 年美国二氧化碳净零排放路径下的初步结果显示,纸浆和造纸业可在 2050 年前实现二氧化碳净零排放,早于整个能源系统,并在此后实现负排放。到 2050 年,化石燃料的使用量将大幅减少,转而在制热过程中增加电力的使用。与参考情景相比,生物质能源在工艺加热中的消耗也有所增加。虽然在政策情景下,纸张产量会因木制品价格上涨而减少,但高碳价格可激励更多使用带二氧化碳捕获与储存系统的生物质能,从而提高纸张产量。造纸业的负排放机会会对土地部门产生影响。增加生物质的使用会加速森林从无人管理到有人管理的转变,从而在技术碳固存和自然生态系统服务之间进行权衡。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring attitudes and behavioral patterns in residential energy consumption: Data-driven by a machine learning approach 探索住宅能源消耗的态度和行为模式:机器学习方法的数据驱动
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100158

The present study focuses on two main objectives: firstly, to clarify the mechanisms by which attitudes impact behavioral changes related to household energy consumption, and secondly, to offer valuable insights to enhance the understanding of residential energy usage through a novel technique called Support Vector Regression (SVR). This method employs several feature space transformations to convert nNar relationships into linear ones. The results highlight the crucial role of psychological factors in determining energy consumption behaviors, demonstrating that cognitive factors significantly influence attitudes and behavioral patterns. The findings show that psychological variables have a major role in determining how people consume energy, with cognitive variables having a particularly large impact on attitudes and behavior patterns. Our findings demonstrate the superior performance of Support Vector Regression (SVR) with radial basis function kernels over traditional predictive models, with a prediction accuracy of 93.7 % for changes in behavior patterns (CHP) and 94.4 % for changes in attitudes (CHA). These results highlight the value of applying cutting-edge machine-learning approaches to create precise models for comprehending and directing energy-saving actions. The policy implications suggest that reducing cognitive barriers can significantly encourage energy-saving behaviors and contribute to a comprehensive approach for energy-efficiency initiatives

本研究主要有两个目标:第一,阐明态度对家庭能源消耗相关行为变化的影响机制;第二,通过一种名为支持向量回归(SVR)的新技术,为加深对住宅能源使用情况的了解提供有价值的见解。这种方法采用了几种特征空间转换,将 nNar 关系转换为线性关系。研究结果突出了心理因素在决定能源消耗行为中的关键作用,表明认知因素对态度和行为模式有显著影响。研究结果表明,心理变量在决定人们如何消费能源方面起着重要作用,其中认知变量对态度和行为模式的影响尤其大。我们的研究结果表明,与传统预测模型相比,带有径向基函数核的支持向量回归(SVR)具有更优越的性能,对行为模式变化(CHP)的预测准确率为 93.7%,对态度变化(CHA)的预测准确率为 94.4%。这些结果凸显了应用尖端机器学习方法创建精确模型以理解和指导节能行动的价值。其政策含义表明,减少认知障碍可以极大地鼓励节能行为,并有助于采取全面的节能措施。
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引用次数: 0
Carbon management technology pathways for reaching a U.S. Economy-Wide net-Zero emissions goal 实现美国全经济净零排放目标的碳管理技术途径
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100154

The Carbon Management Study Group of the 37th Energy Modeling Forum (EMF 37) designed seven scenarios to explore the role of three potentially key technology suites – point source carbon dioxide capture and storage (PSCCS), direct air capture of carbon dioxide (DACCS), and hydrogen systems (H2) – in shaping the broader technology pathways to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in United States by 2050. Each scenario was run by up to 13 models participating in the EMF 37 study. Results show that carbon dioxide removal technologies were consistently a major part of successful pathways to net-zero U.S. CO2 emissions in 2050. Achieving this net-zero CO2 goal without any form of carbon dioxide capture and storage was found to be impossible for most models; some models also found it impossible to reach net-zero without DACCS. The marginal cost of achieving net-zero CO2 emissions in 2050 was between two and 10 times higher without PSCCS and/or DACCS available. The carbon price at which DACCS was deployed as a backstop technology depended upon the assumed cost at which DACCS was available at scale. Carbon prices were between $250 and $500 per ton CO2 when DACCS deployed as a backstop. The average CO2 capture rate across all models in 2050 in the central net-zero scenario was 1.3 GtCO2/year, which implies a substantial upscaling of capacity to move and store CO2. Hydrogen sensitivity scenarios showed that H2 typically constituted a relatively small share of the overall U.S. energy system; however, H2 deployed in applications that are considered hard to decarbonize, facilitating transition towards net-zero emissions.

第 37 届能源建模论坛(EMF 37)碳管理研究小组设计了七种情景,以探讨点源二氧化碳捕集与封存(PSCCS)、直接空气捕集二氧化碳(DACCS)和氢气系统(H2)这三种潜在的关键技术套件在塑造到 2050 年实现美国二氧化碳(CO2)净零排放的更广泛技术途径中的作用。参与 EMF 37 研究的多达 13 个模型运行了每种情景。结果显示,二氧化碳去除技术始终是实现 2050 年美国二氧化碳净零排放的成功途径的主要部分。大多数模型都发现,如果没有任何形式的二氧化碳捕集与封存,就不可能实现二氧化碳净零排放的目标;一些模型还发现,如果没有 DACCS,也不可能实现净零排放。如果没有 PSCCS 和/或 DACCS,2050 年实现二氧化碳净零排放的边际成本要高出 2 到 10 倍。DACCS 作为后备技术的碳价格取决于 DACCS 大规模应用的假定成本。当采用 DACCS 作为后备技术时,碳价格在每吨二氧化碳 250 美元到 500 美元之间。在中央净零情景下,2050 年所有模型的平均二氧化碳捕集率为 1.3 GtCO2/年,这意味着移动和储存二氧化碳的能力将大幅提升。氢气敏感性情景显示,氢气在整个美国能源系统中所占的比例通常相对较小;但是,氢气部署在被认为难以去碳化的应用中,促进了向净零排放的过渡。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results 氢市场建模:能源系统模型开发现状和去碳化情景结果
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100153
Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints. The present work provides insights into the development status and decarbonization scenario results of 15 energy system models participating in study 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37), focusing on the U.S. energy system. The models and scenario results vary widely in multiple respects: hydrogen technology representation, scope and type of hydrogen end-use markets, relative optimism of hydrogen technology input assumptions, and market uptake results reported for 2050 under various decarbonization assumptions. Most models report hydrogen market uptake increasing with decarbonization constraints, though some models report high carbon prices being required to achieve these increases and some find hydrogen does not compete well when assuming optimistic assumptions for all advanced decarbonization technologies. Across various scenarios, hydrogen market success tends to have an inverse relationship to success with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. While most model-scenario combinations predict modest hydrogen uptake by 2050 – <10 million metric tons (MMT) – aggregating the top 10 % of market uptake results across sectors suggests an upper range demand potential of 42–223 MMT. The high degree of variability across both modeling methods and market uptake results suggests that increased harmonization of both input assumptions and subsector competition scope would lead to more consistent results across energy system models. The wide variability in results indicates strongly divergent conclusions on the role of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy future.
氢气可用作能源载体和化学原料,以减少温室气体排放,尤其是在中型和重型车辆、航空和海运、钢铁以及燃料和化学品生产等难以脱碳的市场。在对各种氢气技术进行基于工程的评估方面,已经积累了大量文献,而实际项目也在更大规模和低碳供应链中验证技术性能。虽然能源系统模型在不断更新,以跟踪这一进展,但目前许多模型对氢的表现有限,而且作为一个群体,它们往往会在去碳化约束条件下产生非常多变的结果。本研究对参与斯坦福能源建模论坛(EMF37)第 37 项研究的 15 个能源系统模型的开发状况和去碳化情景结果进行了深入分析,重点关注美国能源系统。这些模型和情景结果在多个方面存在很大差异:氢能技术的代表性、氢能终端应用市场的范围和类型、氢能技术输入假设的相对乐观程度,以及在各种去碳化假设下报告的 2050 年市场吸收结果。大多数模型报告称,随着去碳化约束条件的增加,氢气的市场吸收量也在增加,但一些模型报告称,要实现这些增长需要高碳价格,还有一些模型发现,在对所有先进的去碳化技术进行乐观假设时,氢气的竞争能力并不强。在各种情景下,氢气市场的成功与否往往与直接空气捕集(DAC)和碳捕集与封存(CCS)技术的成功与否成反比关系。虽然大多数模型-情景组合预测到 2050 年氢气吸收量不大--1,000 万吨 (MMT),但汇总各行业前 10% 的市场吸收量结果,则表明需求潜力上限为 4,200 万吨至 2,2300 万吨。建模方法和市场吸收结果之间的高度差异表明,加强输入假设和分部门竞争范围的协调将使各能源系统模型的结果更加一致。结果的巨大差异表明,关于氢气在去碳化能源未来中的作用的结论存在很大分歧。
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引用次数: 0
Operationalisation of low-carbon energy for sustainable agricultural production among smallholder women farmers in Nigeria 在尼日利亚小农妇女中推广低碳能源,促进可持续农业生产
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100159

The use of high-carbon energy (HCE) causes adverse effects on the environment and sustainable food production. Yet, low-carbon energy (LCE) use among women farmers is missing in the literature. Therefore, this study investigates the operationalization of LCE use for sustainable agricultural production among smallholder women farmers in Nigeria. Data collected from randomly selected 350 women farmers were analysed using descriptive statistics, t-tests, and an economics cost model. The results revealed that the women farmers were aware of LCE and used LCE for drying farm output, lighting and heating pens. The average cost of ownership and installation of LCE (solar power systems) by women farmers was N500,000 (USD 510.20) while the cost of ownership/installation of generators was N210,000 (USD 214.29). In the first period, the cost of installing the solar system was higher than that of installing fossil generators by the HCE users. The economic cost model showed that the LCE remained at N500,000 (USD 510.20) while HCE was put at N1,250,000 (USD 1,275.51) in the fifth year. The output of the LCE user (7,108.47 kg) was significantly higher than the users of HCE (4,446.84 kg). In the same vein, users of LCE had a higher income of N1,246,536 (USD 1,271.98) than the users of HCE with an average income of N941,232 (USD 960.44). Thus, the use of LCE is not only for a sustainable environment but also for sustainable production and income. Therefore, this study calls for the promotion of the use of LCE to have a sustainable and productive farming enterprise.

使用高碳能源(HCE)会对环境和可持续粮食生产造成不利影响。然而,文献中却缺少女性农民使用低碳能源(LCE)的情况。因此,本研究调查了尼日利亚小农妇女使用低碳能源促进可持续农业生产的实际情况。研究采用描述性统计、t 检验和经济成本模型对随机抽取的 350 名女农民的数据进行了分析。结果表明,女农民了解 LCE,并将 LCE 用于干燥农场产出、照明和加热围栏。女农民拥有和安装 LCE(太阳能发电系统)的平均成本为 50 万纽币(510.20 美元),而拥有/安装发电机的成本为 21 万纽币(214.29 美元)。在第一阶段,HCE 用户安装太阳能系统的成本高于安装化石发电机的成本。经济成本模型显示,在第五年,LCE 的成本仍为 500,000 纳克法郎(510.20 美元),而 HCE 的成本为 1,250,000 纳克法郎(1,275.51 美元)。LCE 用户的产量(7 108.47 公斤)明显高于 HCE 用户(4 446.84 公斤)。同样,LCE 用户的收入为 1,246,536 纳克法郎(1,271.98 美元),高于 HCE 用户的平均收入 941,232 纳克法郎(960.44 美元)。因此,使用 LCE 不仅是为了可持续的环境,也是为了可持续的生产和收入。因此,本研究呼吁推广使用 LCE,以实现农业企业的可持续发展和高产。
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引用次数: 0
Can energy transition interventions promote financial inclusion? Measuring unintended effects of Ghana's energy transition program 能源转型干预措施能否促进金融包容性?衡量加纳能源转型计划的意外影响
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100157

Global concerns about climate change and its effects and the quest for sustainable development have necessitated policy actions, including energy interventions. Besides the intended goal of energy transition, these interventions often have unintended impacts, which ought to be measured when assessing the overall effects of these energy interventions. This study investigated the impact of a clean cooking fuel transition program in Ghana on financial inclusion. It used a cross-sectional survey of over 900 households in two districts in Ghana where a clean energy transition intervention had been implemented. The study employed linear probability and matching techniques and found that clean energy interventions can promote financial inclusion among beneficiary households. The probability of being significantly associated with financial inclusion is at least 6.6% higher for treated households than it is for households that did not benefit from the program. The findings are robust across different outcome variables and the potential transmission mechanisms are discussed. The study provides evidence for policymakers to count the effect of financial inclusion in measuring the program's overall impact. Furthermore, the findings underscore the need for policies that provide the needed infrastructure and financial ‘ecosystem’ to support financial inclusion, particularly in rural areas where the energy interventions are implemented.

全球对气候变化及其影响的关注,以及对可持续发展的追求,使得有必要采取政策行 动,包括能源干预措施。除了能源转型的预期目标外,这些干预措施往往会产生意想不到的影响,在评估这些能源干预措施的总体效果时,应衡量这些影响。本研究调查了加纳清洁烹饪燃料过渡计划对金融包容性的影响。研究对加纳两个地区的 900 多户家庭进行了横截面调查,在这两个地区实施了清洁能源过渡干预措施。研究采用了线性概率和匹配技术,发现清洁能源干预措施可以促进受益家庭的金融包容性。与未从该计划中受益的家庭相比,接受干预的家庭与金融包容性明显相关的概率至少高出 6.6%。研究结果在不同的结果变量中都是稳健的,并讨论了潜在的传导机制。这项研究为政策制定者提供了证据,以便在衡量计划的整体影响时考虑金融包容性的影响。此外,研究结果还强调,有必要制定政策,提供所需的基础设施和金融 "生态系统",以支持金融包容性,尤其是在实施能源干预措施的农村地区。
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引用次数: 0
Is energy planning consistent with climate goals? Assessing future emissions from power plants in Latin America and the Caribbean 能源规划是否符合气候目标?评估拉丁美洲和加勒比地区发电厂未来的排放量
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100151

Ten Latin American and Caribbean countries have pledged to achieve carbon neutrality since 2019. We assess whether electricity planning in the region has evolved towards reaching this goal. We compare power generation capacity in 2023 with announced plans in 2019. We then estimate committed emissions from existing and planned power plants – emissions that would result from the normal operation of these plants during their typical lifetime – and compare them to emissions from power generation in published IPCC scenarios. We find that fossil fuel planned capacity has decreased by 47 % since 2019, compared to an increase of 24 % of planned renewable power plants. Countries with net-zero pledges tended to cancel more fossil fuel power capacity. But existing plants in the region will emit 6.7 GtCO2 during their lifespan, and if all planned fossil fuel plants are built, they will add 4.9 GtCO2. The total 11.6 GtCO2 emissions exceeds median carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C-consistent IPCC pathways (2.3 and 4.3 GtCO2). Natural gas power plants are the largest contributor to existing (62 %) and planned (75 %) emissions. We evaluate emissions reduction strategies to achieve carbon budgets. Assuming no new coal plants come into operation, announced gas and oil projects are canceled at the same rate as in the past four years, all fossil fueled plant lifetimes are reduced by 10 years, and all new natural gas displaces existing coal, committed emissions fall by 67 %, meeting the median 2 °C budget, but still falling short of the median 1.5 °C budget. While progress is being made, energy planning in the region is not yet consistent with global climate goals as reflected by IPCC scenarios.

十个拉丁美洲和加勒比国家已承诺自 2019 年起实现碳中和。我们将评估该地区的电力规划是否已朝着实现这一目标的方向发展。我们将 2023 年的发电能力与 2019 年公布的计划进行了比较。然后,我们估算了现有和规划中发电厂的承诺排放量--这些发电厂在其典型使用寿命内正常运行所产生的排放量--并将其与政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)公布的情景下的发电排放量进行比较。我们发现,自 2019 年以来,化石燃料的规划发电量减少了 47%,而规划的可再生能源发电厂则增加了 24%。净零承诺的国家倾向于取消更多的化石燃料发电能力。但是,该地区现有电厂在其生命周期内将排放 6.7 千兆吨二氧化碳,如果所有规划的化石燃料电厂都建成,则将增加 4.9 千兆吨二氧化碳。11.6 GtCO2 的总排放量超过了与 1.5 和 2 °C 一致的 IPCC 途径的碳预算中值(2.3 和 4.3 GtCO2)。天然气发电厂是现有排放量(62%)和计划排放量(75%)的最大贡献者。我们评估了实现碳预算的减排战略。假设没有新的煤电厂投产,已宣布的天然气和石油项目以与过去四年相同的速度被取消,所有化石燃料发电厂的寿命缩短 10 年,所有新的天然气取代现有的煤炭,则承诺的排放量将下降 67%,达到中位数 2 °C 预算,但仍低于中位数 1.5 °C 预算。虽然正在取得进展,但该地区的能源规划还不符合 IPCC 预测的全球气候目标。
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Energy and climate change
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