A framework for policy assessment using exploratory modeling and analysis: An application in flood control

Abstract

Uncertainties about future climate and socioeconomic conditions challenge the design and implementation of adaptation measures. Deterministic methods, although helpful in reducing uncertainty and identifying optimal solutions, may fall short to identify flexible and robust strategies under rapidly and uncertain evolving circumstances. This is where robust decision-making approaches, such as Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA), can contribute. Despite its wide use in other fields, the application of EMA in climate change adaptation has been limited by the complexity of its concepts and methodologies. To address this gap, this study introduces a framework that leverages EMA to conduct a case study on flood reduction in Australia. Through EMA, the study systematically evaluates several climate scenarios and policy options across thousands of simulations to identify a set of robust strategies rather than a few optimal solutions. The results demonstrate that a multifaceted approach, which integrates infrastructure with nature-based solutions, not only reduces flood events but also contributes to sustainability. Moreover, EMA elucidates the advantages and limitations of each policy option, enhancing the decision-making process by identifying policies that are best suited to the specific context. While this study is centered on flood risk management, the principles and methodologies are broadly applicable, offering valuable insights for managing a variety of climate-related risks and informing global climate adaptation strategies.