Walter Leal Filho , Robert Stojanov , Christos Matsoukas , Roberto Ingrosso , James A. Franke , Francesco S.R. Pausata , Tommaso Grassi , Jaromír Landa , Cherif Harrouni
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Abstract
Oases are vulnerable ecosystems that are affected by climate change. Using high-resolution climate models focusing on northern Africa, we investigate the changes in the agrosystems of oases. Projected air temperature changes under an extreme global warming scenario are statistically significant for all oases studied, with an increase of up to 4–4.5 °C by the end of the century. The impact of the projected warming is likely to lead to an increased groundwater demand, with a parallel trend in reduced precipitation. Combined, these processes endanger the long-term socio-economic prospect of oases.
期刊介绍：
The ultimate aim of Ecological Indicators is to integrate the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices. The journal provides a forum for the discussion of the applied scientific development and review of traditional indicator approaches as well as for theoretical, modelling and quantitative applications such as index development. Research into the following areas will be published.
• All aspects of ecological and environmental indicators and indices.
• New indicators, and new approaches and methods for indicator development, testing and use.
• Development and modelling of indices, e.g. application of indicator suites across multiple scales and resources.
• Analysis and research of resource, system- and scale-specific indicators.
• Methods for integration of social and other valuation metrics for the production of scientifically rigorous and politically-relevant assessments using indicator-based monitoring and assessment programs.
• How research indicators can be transformed into direct application for management purposes.
• Broader assessment objectives and methods, e.g. biodiversity, biological integrity, and sustainability, through the use of indicators.
• Resource-specific indicators such as landscape, agroecosystems, forests, wetlands, etc.
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