Ecological Indicators最新文献

{"title":"Research on Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Hexi Inland River Basin of China Based on \"Four Waters and Four Determinations\"-System Dynamics and Improved TOPSIS Model","authors":"Liangliang Du ,&nbsp;Pengju Zhang ,&nbsp;Zuirong Niu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114642","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114642","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The water resources in the inland river basin of the Hexi have been seriously imbalanced due to human activities and social development. Although many studies have established evaluation systems for water resources carrying capacity, research on a comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of carrying capacity from a policy perspective is still relatively scarce due to cross-disciplinary and cross-field limitations.Therefore, this study adheres to the \"Four Waters and Four Determinations\" principle, constructs system dynamics models for the three major river basins of Shiyang River, Heihe River, and Shule River, adopts the \"3+4\" research paradigm, focuses on the three subsystems of water resources, economy and society, and ecological environment, sets up four development scenarios including the status quo continuation development type (S1), economic priority development type (S2), resource conservation development type (S3), and comprehensive development type (S4). It also employs a TOPSIS model based on game theory combination weighting and improved grey relational degree for evaluation and prediction.Research findings indicate: (1) During the forecast period from 2024 to 2030, the total carrying capacity of the three major river basins shows a significant upward trend, and by 2030, all will have reached a weakly bearable level (C &gt; 0.5). For the same year, the carrying capacity magnitudes across the four development scenarios are ranked as follows: S3 &gt; S4 &gt; S1 &gt; S2.(2) The carrying capacity of the water resources subsystem shows an overall downward trend. In the future, the Heihe River Basin and the Shule River Basin will be in a severely overloaded state. It is necessary to focus on governance from aspects such as total water consumption, irrigation water for farmland, and sewage treatment.(3) S3 Scenario has achieved remarkable results in various fields such as industry, agriculture, and domestic water use, significantly reducing the total water consumption. In contrast, although S2 Scenario helps to increase GDP and promote economic growth, it will also increase the total water consumption, which is not conducive to the intensive and economical use of water resources. Therefore, S3 Scenario is the optimal solution for achieving sustainable water resource utilization.The research results can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of water resources in the Hexi inland river basin and other similar basins.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114642"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"National watershed health diagnosis: A pressure-state-response assessment of Iran's 3rd-order watersheds","authors":"Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi ,&nbsp;Negin Behnia ,&nbsp;Reza Chamani ,&nbsp;Vahid Moosavi ,&nbsp;Ali Nasiri Khiavi ,&nbsp;Mohammad Hossein Shoushtari ,&nbsp;Hamid Nouri ,&nbsp;Padidehsadat Sadeghi ,&nbsp;Mahin Kalehouei ,&nbsp;Sudabeh Gharemahmudli ,&nbsp;Mohammd Tavosi ,&nbsp;Mostafa Zabihi Silabi ,&nbsp;Abdulvahed Khaledi Darvishan ,&nbsp;Mehdi Vafakhah ,&nbsp;Hamidreza Moradi Rekabdarkolaei","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114572","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114572","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Watershed health has yet to be considered across scales, particularly at the national level, for effective resource management. However, such an important endeavor is lacking for degrading environments worldwide at high resolution. This study, therefore, addresses the research gap in national-scale watershed health (WH) and ecological security (ES) assessments for 640 3rd-order watersheds (approximately 253,521.4 ± 226,998.4 ha) in Iran. Following the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework, 527 nationwide, up-to-date, and accessible variables were initially selected. These were subsequently reduced to 111 non-collinear predictors using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) method. The methodology integrated geospatial, climatic, hydrological, and anthropogenic data across Iran's watersheds. The results of compiling different determinants and performing time-consuming, tedious calculations reported means of 0.47 ± 0.02 and 0.25 ± 0.05 for WH and ES across Iran, respectively. Crucially, WH disproportionately depends on institutional responses (64.36 %), overshadowing entrenched pressures (20.32 %) and critically fragile ecological states (15.32 %). The findings indicate that most watersheds in Iran exhibit moderate WH but are trending toward degradation, reflecting increasing environmental pressure and declining ES. The analysis highlights that climatic and anthropogenic factors, particularly rising temperatures, land-use changes, and hydrological disturbances, are the primary drivers of this decline. Widespread degradation underscores the urgent need for integrated watershed management, nature-based measures, climate-adaptive strategies, and transformative governance to mitigate the decline in WH and ES in Iran.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114572"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contrasting responses of carbon fluxes to hydrothermal drivers in dry grassland and wet meadow ecosystems of the temperate steppe","authors":"Jiakang Fu ,&nbsp;Yixuan Wang ,&nbsp;Tingxi Liu ,&nbsp;Limin Duan ,&nbsp;Guixin Zhang ,&nbsp;Jianguo Ji ,&nbsp;Jianwei Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114662","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114662","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study focused on dry grassland and wet meadow ecosystems, two dominant ecosystem types within the temperate steppe. CO₂ flux dynamics and key hydrothermal drivers were comparatively analyzed using eddy covariance observations, with a view to revealing their threshold effects and lag responses. Results revealed that the wet meadow ecosystem (WME) acted as a significantly stronger CO₂ sink with greater flux variability compared to the dry grassland ecosystem (DGE). While both ecosystems shared similar seasonal trends, they operated under fundamentally different regulatory mechanisms. In the DGE, net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was primarily regulated by latent heat flux (LE) and net radiation (Rn), leading to the system being energy-limited and prone to saturation. Net CO₂ uptake increased rapidly only under low-energy conditions, but a clear physiological saturation threshold was identified (LE &gt; 74.7 W m⁻² and Rn &gt; 146.8 W m⁻²), suggesting that limited soil moisture restricted the ability of DGE to utilize excess energy for photosynthesis. In contrast, the WME, benefiting from abundant soil moisture, experienced a continuous intensification of net CO₂ uptake with increasing LE, Rn, and VPD. This response pattern successfully surpassed the energy saturation limits observed in the DGE. Nevertheless, a hydraulic limitation mechanism emerged under extreme atmospheric dryness, where CO₂ uptake plateaued when VPD exceeded 39.50 hPa, indicating stomatal closure to prevent water loss. At the diurnal scale, CO₂ fluxes closely tracked energy-related drivers, showing minimal lag effects. In the DGE, lag relationships with hydrothermal factors remained stable throughout the growing season, while they fluctuated significantly in the WME, particularly with soil temperature and VPD. These results offer key insights for assessing CO₂ sink potential and inform ecosystem conservation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114662"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soil properties rather than climate dominate the variation of leaf trait network structure in desert ecosystems: a case study from the Hexi Corridor, Northwestern China","authors":"Shanjia Li ,&nbsp;Xinyi Zhou ,&nbsp;Lidong Lu ,&nbsp;Zhaoxiang Zhang ,&nbsp;James F. White ,&nbsp;Haifeng Liu ,&nbsp;Yingxiang Miao ,&nbsp;Lu Yang ,&nbsp;Bin Du ,&nbsp;Zhikang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114644","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Leaf trait networks (LTNs) can reveal complex relationships among multiple traits, and their topological structure reflects plant adaptation to the environment. However, the main environmental drivers and underlying mechanisms of spatial variation in LTN structure remain insufficiently studied, particularly in desert ecosystems. To this end, this study selected 15 typical desert sites along the southeast to northwest of the Hexi Corridor, constructed LTNs based on 20 leaf functional traits, and used geography, climate, soil, and plant diversity as environmental factors to assess their relationships with the network structure. The results showed that LTN structure varied greatly among sites, exhibiting significant spatial heterogeneity. Moreover, for different plant life forms, the network topology of herbaceous species was more tightly connected than that of shrubs, suggesting that herbs rely more on multi-trait coordination to improve resource-use efficiency. Among all environmental factors, soil properties had the greatest influence on LTN variation, with higher soil nutrients significantly enhancing network connectivity and complexity, while geographic and climatic factors had weaker direct effects. Partial least squares path modeling further revealed that soil properties had significant direct effects on LTN structure, whereas climate and geography influenced it indirectly through plant diversity. This study highlights the key role of soil properties in regulating LTNs in desert ecosystems and provides insights into how multi-trait trade-offs are reshaped and optimized in resource-heterogeneous communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114644"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Semi-natural habitats enhance bird diversity in intensively managed farmlands in North China","authors":"Hongyan Zheng ,&nbsp;Noëlle Klein ,&nbsp;Lili Wang ,&nbsp;Sonja Kay ,&nbsp;Felix Herzog ,&nbsp;Rongguang Shi ,&nbsp;Rongle Liu ,&nbsp;Jan Bogaert","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114666","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114666","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agricultural intensification has caused substantial biodiversity loss in farmland worldwide. Although China's farmland accounts for a significant proportion globally, knowledge about farmland heterogeneity and biodiversity remains limited. We examined how semi-natural habitats and habitat heterogeneity affect bird diversity in the intensively managed, low-crop-diversity (wheat–maize rotation) farmland of Qihe County, Shandong Province, China. We applied a multi-scale approach that included patch-scale and transect-scale analyses at both local (100 m buffer) and broader local (200 m buffer) scales across 20 transects, with habitat data classified into eight types: cropland, woody vegetation, herbaceous vegetation, reed, bare ground, tomb (small, earthen mounds with spontaneous vegetation), water, and artificial infrastructure. Bird richness and abundance were recorded within 100 m on either side of each 500 m transect. At the patch scale, Semi-natural habitats—particularly tombs, woody vegetation, and reeds—supported higher bird richness and abundance. At both local and broader local scales, semi-natural habitats positively influenced bird richness, but their positive effect on abundance occurred only at the local scale; woody vegetation, herbaceous, and reed were most important locally, while at the broader scale, richness was mainly associated with woody vegetation, herbaceous, and bare ground. Habitat diversity (SHDI) positively affected species richness, edge density (ED) of semi-natural habitat had a positive effect on bird abundance, and mean patch size showed limited effects. These results indicate that biodiversity in intensively farmed landscapes can be enhanced through the management of semi-natural habitats and habitat heterogeneity, highlighting the importance of maintaining these habitats and improving landscape connectivity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114666"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tracking biodiversity footprints embodied in the global supply chains of agricultural commodities: the examples of Germany and China","authors":"Giorgio A. Bidoglio ,&nbsp;Abhishek Chaudhary ,&nbsp;Stefan Dullinger ,&nbsp;Karl-Heinz Erb ,&nbsp;Franz Essl ,&nbsp;Fridolin Krausmann ,&nbsp;Sarah Matej ,&nbsp;Philipp Semenchuk ,&nbsp;Thomas Kastner ,&nbsp;Florian Schwarzmüller","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114663","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114663","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the world's globalized economies become more and more interconnected, agricultural production and its associated environmental impacts are increasingly driven by consumption in geographically distant places. This is a challenge when it comes to building more sustainable modes of consumption and developing accounting principles of environmental impacts. In this study, we quantified the land-use driven biodiversity loss embodied in the food consumption, i.e. the biodiversity footprints of Germany and China, two major economies relying greatly on the trade of agricultural products. We developed a spatially explicit and product specific database which combines a recently updated countryside species-area relationship (cSAR) model at a resolution of 10 × 10 km with spatial information on global land use and crop production to estimate the impending vertebrate species loss at the level of single grid cells (landscape level) and potential global species extinctions (global level). These complementary indicators reflect different ecological processes that influence patterns of species diversity, acting at different scales. By integrating the indicators into a dataset in global food trade and consumption data, we show that, despite large quantities of imports, for China's biodiversity footprint occurs largely domestically. For Germany the footprint is mostly (landscape level) to almost entirely (global level) driven by imports. These differences reflect different supply chains and sourcing countries, but also point at differences in the global distribution of species richness, endemism and IUCN threat level. We found that few key commodities like cocoa, coffee, soybeans and products of livestock grazing contribute the most to the biodiversity footprints of both countries. Our results emphasize the need of multiple, complementary and spatial indicators of biodiversity impacts at landscape and global level to better track and quantify consumption-driven biodiversity loss across products, sourcing countries and taxa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114663"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving predictions of soil heterotrophic respiration: A parameter-optimized microbial model for alpine meadows in the three-river source region, Qinghai-Tibet plateau","authors":"Yongkang Lu ,&nbsp;Sheng Yu ,&nbsp;Mingxue Xiang ,&nbsp;Kai Zheng ,&nbsp;Tao Ma ,&nbsp;Zhaoqi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114673","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114673","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a critical pathway in soil organic carbon release, soil heterotrophic respiration (R_h) has simulation accuracy that impacts regional and global carbon cycle assessments. As a climate change hotspot, the Three Rivers Source Region (TRSR) exhibits considerable uncertainties in R_h modeling, constraining in-depth research on regional carbon cycles. In this study, the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) microbial model with an added moisture effect function is used for modeling R_h of alpine meadow in the TRSR. To initialize the model and optimize its parameters, we utilized four years of field-measured data from three sites (Maqin, Tongde, and Chenduo), including R_h, soil temperature, soil moisture, soil organic carbon, and microbial biomass carbon. Our results determine a set of generalized carbon pool parameters suitable for alpine meadow ecosystems across the study region. After selecting and optimizing high-sensitivity parameters, the model's simulation performance for soil R_h improved significantly, with R² remaining above 0.7 and the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) controlled within 11%–14%. Furthermore, relative to the original MIMICS model, integrating the moisture effect function increased the model's R² by 0.19–0.30. This study represents the attempt to refine the MIMICS model for R_h regulation, which not only provides a more accurate tool for simulating the carbon cycle of alpine meadow in the TRSR but also offers new insights into the coupling mechanisms between microbial models and environmental drivers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114673"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Developing integrated ecological indicators for hydropower efficiency: a centralized DEA approach incorporating water resource reallocation and nonseparable variables","authors":"Li-Ting Yeh","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114650","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114650","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective water reallocation is essential for sustaining performance in centralized hydroelectric systems under increasing climate variability. However, most prior DEA-based assessments emphasize plant-level efficiency and assume separable inputs and outputs, which limits their value for system-wide water–energy planning under centralized governance. To address this gap, this study develops a centralized data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. The model constructs integrated ecological indicators that treat water inputs and electricity outputs as nonseparable. The unique contribution of this framework lies in its ability to capture the joint production of water and energy. It provides system-level indicators that link seasonal water reallocation strategies to electricity generation performance. The model supports water resource reallocation planning by maximizing system-wide water–energy efficiency under centralized management. It is applied to 23 hydroelectric systems in Taiwan across three seasonal scenarios—wet, dry, and annual—to evaluate spatial and temporal efficiency adjustments. The results show that optimal water reallocation increases electricity output by 1.83% during the wet season and limits output losses to 4.12% during the dry season. Over the full year, the model improves overall system efficiency, reducing total discharge volume by 1.05% and increasing effective storage by 3.13%. These findings show that indicator-based evaluation can support centralized water–energy planning across seasons. The resulting indicators are intended to inform ecological resource management, including seasonal storage–release balance and scenario-based downstream-release considerations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114650"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Internal phosphorus loading drives long-term eutrophication trends and short-term deviations in a shallow hypertrophic lake","authors":"Olga Tammeorg ,&nbsp;Gertrud Nürnberg ,&nbsp;Theis Kragh ,&nbsp;Jussi Vesterinen ,&nbsp;Veli-Pekka Salonen ,&nbsp;Peeter Nõges ,&nbsp;Priit Tammeorg","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114657","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114657","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Enäjärvi is one of the numerous lakes that have experienced increasing blooms of cyanobacteria. We hypothesized that the cause includes an increasing role of internal phosphorus (P) loading. Using a long-term data series (1997–2024), we quantified the internal P load as IL_{in situ} (based on an increase in TP mass in the water column over summer), and analysed its annual variation and potential causal mechanisms. For mechanistic insights, we measured the redox potential and sediment characteristics, and computed sediment P release rates (by diffusion) at three sampling sites in June, August and October 2024. Finally, we conducted a hydroacoustic survey to support the spatial resolution of the studies on sediment P dynamics. The internal P load increased over the years from 1997 to 2024 and correlated with the chlorophyll <em>a</em> concentration, water transparency (Secchi), and the cyanobacterial biomass and its proportion of the phytoplankton biomass. The increase in the internal P load was primarily attributed to an increase in the anoxic area factor (a measure of anoxia), and additionally to a decrease in the water level. Our short-term studies confirmed a governing role of redox-related P release through the observation of 1) (anoxic) P-releasing sediment surfaces during summer and 2) a significant positive relationship between the sediment P release rate and the concentration of iron-bound P. In general, the sediment organic matter content has increased in the long term together with an increase in the internal P load and eutrophication. In addition, the pool of sediment P has remained high over the long term, suggesting that previous restoration measures have been ineffective in reducing the internal P load. The hydroacoustic survey revealed a good representativeness (approximately 82%) of the lake sediment characteristics by the three sites sampled in the current study. Consequently, measures to reduce the legacy P input are needed to combat the eutrophication trend with ongoing climate change in Enäjärvi, as in other similar shallow lakes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114657"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatially explicit modeling and scenario-based projections of LULC-driven carbon stock changes in Japan","authors":"Bailing Zhang ,&nbsp;Jing Kang ,&nbsp;Norihiro Itsubo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114646","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114646","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of terrestrial ecosystem carbon stock is essential for effective climate mitigation and land management. This study presents a spatially explicit modeling approach to estimate historical and project future carbon stock changes across Japan from 2001 to 2050. Future projections were generated under three alternative land-use scenarios, including Business-as-Usual (BAU), Conservation, and High-Development pathways. Annual land use/land cover (LULC) maps were combined with class-specific carbon density parameters to calculate grid-level carbon stocks. Intertemporal differences in carbon stocks were computed at the pixel scale, enabling the identification of spatially heterogeneous carbon gains and losses. Future land transitions and carbon trajectories were projected using a CA-Markov model calibrated on observed LULC changes. Across all scenarios, total national carbon stock remains relatively stable, with changes of less than 3%; however, pronounced spatial disparities persist. Southwestern regions, particularly Kyushu and Shikoku, exhibit consistent carbon gains, whereas northeastern prefectures and northern Hokkaido show persistent declines. Forest loss accounts for approximately 8–9% of the total forest area and is overwhelmingly dominated by transitions to grass–savanna systems (&gt;92%), while direct conversion to urban land remains negligible (≤0.15%). This indicates that the predominant contributors to forest carbon change are low-intensity land-cover transitions, and that carbon losses associated with direct urban expansion are highly limited in Japan.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 114646"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}