Zika and Chikungunya in Europe 2100 – A GIS based model for risk estimation

IF 6.3 3区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI:10.1016/j.tmaid.2024.102737

J. Kronen , M. Leuchner , T. Küpper

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Abstract

Background

The spread of vector-borne infectious diseases is determined, among other things, by temperature. Thus, climate change will have an influence on their global distribution. In the future, Europe will approach the temperature optimum for the transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV. Climate scenarios and climate models can be used to depict future climatic changes and to draw conclusions about future risk areas for vector-borne infectious diseases.

Methods

Based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, a geospatial analysis was carried out for the future temperature suitability of ZIKV and CHIKV in Europe. The results were presented in maps and the percentage of the affected areas calculated.

Results

Due to rising temperatures, the risk areas for transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV spread in both RCP scenarios. For CHIKV transmission, Spain, Portugal, the Mediterranean coast and areas near the Black Sea are mainly affected. Due to high temperatures, large areas throughout Europe are at risk for ZIKV and CHIKV transmission.

Conclusion

Temperature is only one of many factors influencing the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases. Nevertheless, the representation of risk areas on the basis of climate scenarios allows an assessment of future risk development. Monitoring and adaptation strategies are indispensable for coping with and containing possible future autochthonous transmissions and epidemics in Europe.

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2100 年欧洲的寨卡病毒和基孔肯雅病毒--基于地理信息系统的风险评估模型。

背景：病媒传染病的传播主要取决于温度。因此，气候变化将对这些疾病的全球分布产生影响。未来，欧洲将接近 ZIKV 和 CHIKV 传播的最佳温度。气候情景和气候模型可用于描绘未来的气候变化，并就未来病媒传染病的风险区域得出结论：方法：根据 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 气候情景，对欧洲 ZIKV 和 CHIKV 的未来温度适宜性进行了地理空间分析。分析结果以地图形式呈现，并计算了受影响地区的百分比：结果：由于气温升高，ZIKV 和 CHIKV 传播的风险区域在两种 RCP 情景中都有所扩大。就 CHIKV 传播而言，西班牙、葡萄牙、地中海沿岸和黑海附近地区主要受到影响。由于气温较高，欧洲大部分地区都面临 ZIKV 和 CHIKV 传播的风险：气温只是影响病媒传染病传播的众多因素之一。尽管如此，根据气候情景对风险地区进行描述，可以对未来的风险发展进行评估。要应对和遏制欧洲未来可能出现的自体传播和流行病，监测和适应战略必不可少。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-INFECTIOUS DISEASES

CiteScore

19.40

自引率

1.70%

发文量

211

审稿时长

49 days

期刊介绍： Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease Publication Scope: Publishes original papers, reviews, and consensus papers Primary theme: infectious disease in the context of travel medicine Focus Areas: Epidemiology and surveillance of travel-related illness Prevention and treatment of travel-associated infections Malaria prevention and treatment Travellers' diarrhoea Infections associated with mass gatherings Migration-related infections Vaccines and vaccine-preventable disease Global policy/regulations for disease prevention and control Practical clinical issues for travel and tropical medicine practitioners Coverage: Addresses areas of controversy and debate in travel medicine Aims to inform guidelines and policy pertinent to travel medicine and the prevention of infectious disease Publication Features: Offers a fast peer-review process Provides early online publication of accepted manuscripts Aims to publish cutting-edge papers