After-effects of Hurricane Dorian on Grand Bahama Pine Forest: Impacts on Pinus caribaea var. bahamensis (Bahamian pine) attributes revealed through in situ study and statistical predictive insights

Abstract

On Grand Bahama, powerful hurricanes (tropical cyclones) of Category 3 and above have destroyed large sections of the pine vegetation across the island. As global mean temperatures and sea levels continue gradually increasing, more catastrophic hurricanes will likely affect Grand Bahama Island. This study incorporates in situ data and predictive modeling to investigate the impact of Hurricane Dorian, a Category 5 tropical cyclone, on the pine forest of Grand Bahama Island. Statistical results revealed significant predictors of hurricane damage were diameter at breast height (DBH), height, impact location, and elevation. Height was the most important predictor in all damage categories. Across all damaged categories, pine tree age, DBH, height, and elevation statistically differed. Dead short-older pine trees with larger DBH were more likely to be in the downed dead/uprooted damaged category, while pine trees with smaller DBH and slender stem were more likely to snap. Standing dead pine trees were common in lower elevation areas, whereas uprooted and snapped dead pine trees were prevalent at slightly higher elevations. These findings offer novel insights to help address the research gaps concerning the impact of powerful hurricanes on the pine forest structure in Grand Bahama. More pressingly, the literature on the impact of major hurricanes on the Bahamian pine forest is scarce. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) highlights the need to update the habitat and ecology status of the Bahamian pine, noting gaps in the current literature.