Machine-learning-based demand forecasting against food waste: Life cycle environmental impacts and benefits of a bakery case study

Abstract

Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) are driving transformative changes in many areas, with significant environmental implications. Yet, environmental assessments for specific applications are scarce. This study presents an in-depth life cycle assessment of “Foodforecast,” a machine learning (ML) cloud service designed to reduce food waste in bakeries by optimizing sales forecasting. It covers four impact categories: global warming, abiotic resource depletion, cumulative energy demand, and freshwater eutrophication. The assessment includes both the direct environmental impacts of the ML model and the underlying system hardware, as well as the indirect benefits of avoided bakery returns compared to traditional ordering methods, using real-world case study data. In 2022, “Foodforecast” led to an average 30% reduction in bakery returns, primarily bread and rolls, according to sales reports. The associated environmental benefits significantly outweighed the system's direct impacts by one to three orders of magnitude across impact categories and return utilization scenarios. The study identifies support activities such as service maintenance during deployment as major direct impact factors, surpassing those from cloud compute for ML operations. Data processing and inference dominate the latter, while the much-discussed ML training plays a minor role. The environmental consequences of AI are complex and dual sided. This case study demonstrates that AI might provide environmental benefits in certain contexts, yet results are constrained by methodological challenges and data uncertainties. There remains a need for further holistic LCAs across different ML applications to inform decision-making processes and ultimately guide the responsible use of AI.