Elevated CO2 concentrations contribute to a closer relationship between vegetation growth and water availability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes

Abstract

The Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, with large human populations and terrestrial carbon sinks, have a high demand for and dependence on water resources. Despite the growing interest in vegetation responses to drought under climate change in this region, our understanding of changes in the relationship between vegetation growth and water availability (referred to as Rvw) remains limited. Here, we aim to explore the Rvw and its drivers in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes between 1982 and 2015. We used the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the fine-resolution Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) as proxies for vegetation growth and water availability, respectively. The trend analysis results showed that changes in NDVI and PDSI were asynchronous over the past three decades. Moreover, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of the correlation coefficient between NDVI and PDSI. The results indicated that the Rvw was getting closer in more areas over the period, but there were differences across ecosystems. Specifically, most croplands and grasslands were primarily constrained by water deficit, which was getting stronger; however, most forests were primarily constrained by water surplus, which was getting weaker. Furthermore, our random forest regression models indicated that the dominant driver of changes in the NDVI-PDSI correlation was atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in more than 45% of grid cells. In addition, the partial correlation analysis results demonstrated that elevated CO2 concentrations not only boosted vegetation growth through the fertilizer effect but also indirectly enhanced water availability by improving water use efficiency. Overall, this study highlights the important role of atmospheric CO2 in mediating the Rvw under climate change, implying a potential link between vegetation greening and drought risk.