Probabilistic assessment of climate-related impacts and risks in ports

Abstract

Port activities are crucial for sustained, long-term economic growth, serving as the primary nodes for importing and exporting goods within global supply chains. Given their coastal locations, ports are inherently exposed to climate hazards, such as waves and extreme sea levels, requiring large investments in resilient infrastructure. This study introduces an innovative methodology for assessing climate-related impacts and risks in ports, applicable to both existing and new constructions. This approach aims to facilitate climate-informed decision-making and enhance the management of coastal structures and ports under high uncertainty. The methodology’s novelty resides in: (1) the development of a port-specific risk framework capable of estimating impacts from both extreme events and daily conditions; (2) the integration of the latest advancements in nearshore climate hazard modeling; (3) the application of high-resolution tools for accurately simulating wave propagation towards harbor basins and the interaction between waves and structures; (4) the probabilistic determination of failure modes and operational shutdowns susceptible to climate conditions; and (5) the estimation of economic losses resulting from diminished operational capacity, in addition to the degradation of reliability and functionality in port infrastructures. Formulated within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk framework and anchored in established Spanish Recommendations for Maritime Works (ROM Program), this methodology has been applied to a complex, state-owned, newly-built outer port in the Mediterranean Sea. Preliminary findings suggest that, over the course of a 50-year lifespan, climate-related risks could lead to cumulative losses nearing 10 million euros for such infrastructure. Nevertheless, in scenarios marked by extreme events, potential losses could escalate to as much as 100 million euros, despite their occurrence being relatively rare (with a probability of only 0.1%). It stresses the significant uncertainties encountered when evaluating climate-related risks for critical infrastructure, including ports, and highlights the critical need for advanced methodologies to accurately understand these risks.