China's future forest carbon sequestration potential under different management scenarios

Abstract

Enhancing forest carbon storage and carbon sequestration capacity is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality. Scientific forest management can maintain a high level of carbon sequestration capacity in forests, and considering the carbon pool of wood products can extend the time of carbon fixation. However, current predictions of large-scale forest carbon storage and carbon sequestration capacity have overlooked changes in forest carbon absorption with forest age and the buffering effect of wood product carbon pools in the carbon release process. In this paper, we used the Forest Simulation and Optimization System model (FSOS) to analyze the wood supply and carbon sequestration capacities of different management scenarios based on data from the Forest Resources Inventory (2014–2018). The results showed that China's forests could export significant amounts of timber in the future; According to the 9th forest survey report, China's forests produce only 88 million m³ yr^-1. Among them, the harvested objects were mainly planted forests, and if all forests (planted forests and natural forests) are involved in forest management planning, the maximum sustainable annual wood supply will reach 286 million m³ yr^-1. Moreover, due to the current large proportion of younger forests in China, 358 million m³ of annual wood supply will be achievable in the future (as of the year 2039). Forest management can increase the carbon sequestration capacities in forest ecosystems as well as the wood supply compared to the no management options. In summary, the carbon sequestration potential of unmanaged forests is limited. Appropriate forest management can increase the carbon sequestration potential of forests. The substitution of carbon emission reduction of wood products and bioenergy can also greatly reduce the pressure to achieve carbon neutral strategies.