Study on the Spatial Effects of Grain Change on Food Security of Feed from the Perspective of Big Food

Abstract

Using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2020, this paper uses a spatial double difference model to evaluate the policy impact of the “grain-to-feed” policy on feed grain production in pilot areas and adjacent spatial areas. Research has found that the “grain-to-feed” policy has a significant impact on the feed grain production in pilot areas and can significantly increase the feed grain production in pilot areas by about 2.71 million tons. The “grain-to-feed” policy has strengthened the positive connection between pilot areas and adjacent pilot areas, increased feed grain production, and has a significant spatial spillover effect. Robustness analysis shows that whether using different methods to measure spatial adjacency or using different standards to distribute subsidies, the “grain-to-feed” policy can significantly increase feed grain production, narrow the supply and demand gap of feed grain, and ensure feed grain security. Further analysis shows that the “grain-to-feed” policy can not only ensure the security of feed grain for the current and next periods but also promote the increase in farmers’ income, which is long-term and sustainable. Compared with non-pilot areas, the “grain-to-feed” policy can mitigate the negative impact of wage–price signals on feed grain production in pilot areas. It is recommended that government departments accelerate the transformation of food security concepts, establish a “Big Food Perspective”, gradually promote the pilot of the “grain-to-feed” policy nationwide, increase the subsidy amount of the “grain-to-feed” policy, increase financial support for scientific and technological research and achievement transformation in the field of feed grain, prevent the impact of economic price signal fluctuations on feed grain production, and effectively ensure the security of feed grain in China.