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Per Capita Land Use through Time and Space: A New Database for (Pre)Historic Land-Use Reconstructions 穿越时空的人均土地利用:史前土地利用重建的新数据库
Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.3390/land13081144
Chad Hill, Marco Madella, N. Whitehouse, Carolina Jiménez-Arteaga, Emily Hammer, J. Bates, Lynn Welton, S. Biagetti, Johanna Hilpert, Kathleen D. Morrison
Anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) models, commonly used for climate modeling, tend to utilize relatively simplistic models of human interaction with the environment. They have historically relied on unsophisticated assumptions about the temporal and spatial variability of the area needed to support one person: per capita land use (PCLU). To help refine ALCC models, we used a range of data sources to build a new database that attempts to bring together PCLU data with significant time depth and a global perspective. This new database can provide new nuance for our understanding of the variability in land use among and between time periods and regions, data that will have wide applicability for continued research into past human land use and present land-use change, and can hopefully help improve existing ALCC models. An example is provided, showing the potential impact of new PCLU data on land-use mapping in the Middle East at 6000 BP.
通常用于气候建模的人为土地覆被变化(ALCC)模型往往采用相对简单的人类与环境互动模型。这些模型历来依赖于对支持一个人所需面积的时间和空间变化的不成熟假设:人均土地利用(PCLU)。为了帮助完善 ALCC 模型,我们利用一系列数据源建立了一个新的数据库,试图汇集具有显著时间深度和全球视角的 PCLU 数据。这个新数据库可以为我们理解不同时期和地区之间土地利用的变化提供新的细微差别,这些数据将广泛适用于对过去人类土地利用和现在土地利用变化的持续研究,并有望帮助改进现有的 ALCC 模型。本报告提供了一个实例,说明新的 PCLU 数据对绘制公元前 6000 年中东地区土地利用图的潜在影响。
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引用次数: 0
Optimizing Territorial Spatial Structures within the Framework of Carbon Neutrality: A Case Study of Wuan 在碳中和框架内优化国土空间结构:武安案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.3390/land13081147
Xiangxue Han, Meichen Fu, Jingheng Wang, Sijia Li
Climate change has become a major worldwide problem, and land use/cover change has consistently played a crucial role in impacting the carbon cycle within terrestrial ecosystems. Territorial spatial planning stands as a relatively good policy option for the low-carbon model. The spatial correlation between carbon emissions and land use was established through environmental parameters in this paper. The territorial spatial structures in 2035 and 2060 under two scenarios of natural evolution and low-carbon development were simulated through the PLUS model. The results indicate that the spatial pattern of decreasing carbon emissions centered on towns, cities, mines, and industries is related to regional economic development, the distribution of forests, and the urban ecological environment. The implementation of territorial spatial planning aids in achieving carbon neutrality, whereas the low-carbon development scenario is more focused on it, which can provide ideas for territorial spatial planning adjustments. Both scenarios result in a large area of fallow land, indicating some conflict between farmland protection and low-carbon development. Optimizing management measures, energy structure, and industrial layout and strengthening regional coordination are key to promoting low-carbon development. This study might be useful in formulating regional carbon-neutral policies and improving territorial spatial planning.
气候变化已成为一个重大的世界性问题,而土地利用/覆盖变化在影响陆地生态系统的碳循环方面一直发挥着至关重要的作用。国土空间规划是低碳模式中相对较好的政策选择。本文通过环境参数确定了碳排放与土地利用之间的空间相关性。通过 PLUS 模型模拟了 2035 年和 2060 年自然演化和低碳发展两种情景下的国土空间结构。结果表明,以城镇、矿山和工业为中心的碳排放下降空间格局与区域经济发展、森林分布和城市生态环境有关。全域空间规划的实施有助于实现碳中和,而低碳发展情景则更加注重碳中和,这可以为全域空间规划调整提供思路。两种情景都会造成大面积的休耕地,说明耕地保护与低碳发展之间存在一定的冲突。优化管理措施、能源结构和产业布局,加强区域协调是促进低碳发展的关键。这项研究可能有助于制定区域碳中和政策,完善国土空间规划。
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引用次数: 0
Mapping the Functional Structure of Urban Agglomerations at the Block Level: A New Spatial Classification That Goes Beyond Land Use 绘制街区级城市群功能结构图:超越土地利用的新型空间分类法
Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.3390/land13081148
Bin Ai, Zhenlin Lai, Shifa Ma
The functional structure of territorial space is an important factor for analyzing the interaction between humans and nature. However, the classification of remote sensing images struggles to distinguish between multiple functions provided by the same land use type. Therefore, we propose a framework to combine multi-source data for the recognition of dominant functions at the block level. Taking the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) as a case study, its block-level ‘production–living–ecology’ functions were interpreted. The whole GBA was first divided into different blocks and its total, average, and proportional functional intensities were then calculated. Each block was labeled as a functional type considering the attributes of human activity and social information. The results show that the combination of land use/cover data, point of interest identification, and open street maps can efficiently separate the multiple and mixed functions of the same land use types. There is a great difference in the dominant functions of the cities in the GBA, and the spatial heterogeneity of their mixed functions is closely related to the development of their land resources and socio-economy. This provides a new perspective for recognizing the spatial structure of territorial space and can give important data for regulating and optimizing landscape patterns during sustainable development.
国土空间的功能结构是分析人与自然互动关系的一个重要因素。然而,遥感图像分类很难区分同一土地利用类型所提供的多种功能。因此,我们提出了一个结合多源数据的框架,用于识别区块层面的主导功能。我们以粤港澳大湾区为例,对其区块层面的 "生产-生活-生态 "功能进行了解读。首先将整个粤港澳大湾区划分为不同的区块,然后计算其总功能强度、平均功能强度和比例功能强度。考虑到人类活动和社会信息的属性,每个区块都被标记为一种功能类型。结果表明,结合土地利用/覆盖数据、兴趣点识别和开放式街道地图,可以有效地分离出同一土地利用类型的多重和混合功能。GBA中各城市的主导功能存在很大差异,其混合功能的空间异质性与其土地资源和社会经济的发展密切相关。这为认识地域空间的空间结构提供了一个新的视角,并为在可持续发展过程中调节和优化景观格局提供了重要数据。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting Land-Use Change Trends and Habitat Quality in the Tarim River Basin: A Perspective with Climate Change Scenarios and Multiple Scales 预测塔里木河流域的土地利用变化趋势和生境质量:以气候变化情景和多重尺度为视角
Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.3390/land13081146
T. Aishan, Jian Song, Ü. Halik, F. Betz, Asadilla Yusup
Under the influences of climate change and human activities, habitat quality (HQ) in inland river basins continues to decline. Studying the spatiotemporal distributions of land use and HQ can provide support for sustainable development strategies of the ecological environment in arid regions. Therefore, this study utilized the SD-PLUS model, InVEST-HQ model, and Geodetector to assess and simulate the land-use changes and HQ in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) at multiple scales (county and grid scales) and scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The results indicated that (1) the Figure of Merit (FoM) values for Globeland 30, China’s 30 m annual land-cover product, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (30 m) product were 0.22, 0.12, and 0.15, respectively. A comparison of land-use datasets with different resolutions revealed that the kappa value tended to decline as the resolution decreased. (2) In 2000, 2010, and 2020, the HQ values were 0.4656, 0.4646, and 0.5143, respectively. Under the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, the HQ values showed an increasing trend: for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050, they were 0.4797, 0.4834, and 0.4855 and 0.4805, 0.4861, and 0.4924, respectively. Under SSP585, the HQ values first increased and then decreased, with values of 0.4791, 0.4800, and 0.4766 for 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. (3) Under three scenarios, areas with improved HQ were mainly located in the southern and northern high mountain regions and around urban areas, while areas with diminished HQ were primarily in the western part of the basin and central urban areas. (4) At the county scale, the spatial correlation was not significant, with Moran’s I ranging between 0.07 and 0.12, except in 2000 and 2020. At the grid scale, the spatial correlation was significant, with clear high- and low-value clustering (Moran’s I between 0.80 and 0.83). This study will assist land-use planners and policymakers in formulating sustainable development policies to promote ecological civilization in the basin.
在气候变化和人类活动的影响下,内陆河流域的生境质量(HQ)持续下降。研究土地利用与生境质量的时空分布可为干旱地区生态环境的可持续发展战略提供支持。因此,本研究利用 SD-PLUS 模型、InVEST-HQ 模型和 Geodetector 评估和模拟了塔里木河流域(TRB)在多种尺度(县和网格尺度)和情景(SSP126、SSP245 和 SSP585)下的土地利用变化和 HQ。结果表明:(1) Globeland 30、中国 30 m 年度土地覆被产品和中国科学院(30 m)产品的优点图(FoM)值分别为 0.22、0.12 和 0.15。对不同分辨率的土地利用数据集进行比较后发现,随着分辨率的降低,kappa 值呈下降趋势。(2) 2000 年、2010 年和 2020 年的 HQ 值分别为 0.4656、0.4646 和 0.5143。在 SSP126 和 SSP245 情景下,HQ 值呈上升趋势:2030、2040 和 2050 年的 HQ 值分别为 0.4797、0.4834 和 0.4855,以及 0.4805、0.4861 和 0.4924。在 SSP585 条件下,HQ 值先上升后下降,2030、2040 和 2050 年的 HQ 值分别为 0.4791、0.4800 和 0.4766。(3)在三种情景下,HQ 值提高的地区主要分布在南部和北部高山地区以及城市周边地区,HQ 值降低的地区主要分布在盆地西部和中部城市地区。(4) 在县级尺度上,除 2000 年和 2020 年外,空间相关性不显著,Moran's I 在 0.07 至 0.12 之间。在网格尺度上,空间相关性显著,具有明显的高值和低值聚类(莫兰 I 在 0.80 和 0.83 之间)。这项研究将有助于土地利用规划者和决策者制定可持续发展政策,促进流域生态文明建设。
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引用次数: 0
Management Impacts on Non-Native Smooth Brome (Bromus inermis Leyss.) Control in a Native Fescue Grassland in Canada 管理对加拿大原生羊茅草地非本地平滑锦葵(Bromus inermis Leyss.)控制的影响
Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.3390/land13081142
Debra J. Brown, A. Dhar, M. Naeth
Native fescue grassland degradation and reductions in plant species diversity due to smooth brome (Bromus inermis Leyss.) invasion and dominance have far ranging consequences for both human and ecological systems. A study was undertaken to reduce smooth brome which was invading foothills fescue grassland in Canada and displacing native species. Sheep and cattle grazing, mowing, glyphosate, and burning were applied to control smooth brome-dominant grasslands over three growing seasons. Defoliation (5 to 10 cm, 2 to 4 times) did not reduce smooth brome tiller density, etiolated regrowth, or total non-structural carbohydrates; however, the three heaviest defoliation treatments (sheep 3×, cattle 3×, mowing 4×) reduced smooth brome composition by year 3. Repeated glyphosate wicking (1× year 1, 2× year 2) was the most effective treatment and reduced smooth brome tiller density by 50% by year 3. Early-spring burning, as smooth brome began to grow, stressed the plants and reduced tiller density. Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis L.), the subdominant species, increased in all treatments except the reference; thus, reducing smooth brome may result in another undesirable species becoming dominant.
由于平滑锦葵(Bromus inermis Leyss.)的入侵和支配,原生羊茅草地退化,植物物种多样性减少,对人类和生态系统都产生了深远的影响。一项研究旨在减少入侵加拿大山麓羊茅草地并取代本地物种的光滑锦葵。在三个生长季节中,采用放牧、割草、草甘膦和焚烧等方法控制以平滑锦鸡儿为主的草地。落叶(5 至 10 厘米,2 至 4 次)并没有降低平滑锦葵的分蘖密度、幼苗再生或非结构性碳水化合物总量;然而,三种最严重的落叶处理(羊 3×、牛 3×、割草 4×)在第 3 年降低了平滑锦葵的成分。重复使用草甘膦(第 1 年 1 次,第 2 年 2 次)是最有效的处理方法,到第 3 年时,平滑锦葵的分蘖密度降低了 50%。早春,当光滑绒毛草开始生长时进行焚烧,会对植物造成压力并降低分蘖密度。肯塔基蓝草(Poa pratensis L.)是次优势物种,在除参照物之外的所有处理中都有所增加;因此,减少平滑锦葵可能会导致另一种不受欢迎的物种成为优势物种。
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引用次数: 0
Grassland Ecosystem Services: Their Economic Evaluation through a Systematic Review 草地生态系统服务:通过系统回顾对其进行经济评估
Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.3390/land13081143
Maria Pergola, Enrica De Falco, Michele Cerrato
Grasslands provide a wide range of provision, support, regulation, and cultural ecosystem services (ESs), whose valuation methods can be grouped into three categories (ecological, sociocultural, and economic). The present manuscript aims to provide an overview of academic studies on grassland ESs and of the most used economic evaluation methods. To this end, a systematic and bibliometric review was conducted using the scientific database Scopus and the VOSviewer software. The results highlighted that China and the USA were the main countries with the highest number of publications regarding ESs provided by grasslands. The number of publications began to grow starting in 2005, thanks, perhaps, to the publication of influential documents, such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and the general increase in interest in ecological policy issues. The year 2023 had the highest number of documents in absolute (646), demonstrating the timeliness, importance, and relevance of this research topic. The most studied grassland ES has been carbon storage; however, a central role was played also by biodiversity. In this context, papers that estimated grassland ESs from an economic perspective represented only 3% of all papers that Scopus has returned. More than half of these referred to the use of equivalent coefficients to calculate the ES value of different land uses/land cover categories or, at most, of 11 types of ES. All this highlights the difficulty in estimating individual ESs provided by grasslands from an economic point of view and the greater propensity to use physical, chemical, and biological indicators. Consequently, the sustainable management of grasslands requires more studies on the economic evaluation of their ES, as well as environmental aspects in the economic accounting of governments, or to implement a support system for farms in delivering various ecosystem services.
草地提供广泛的供给、支持、调节和文化生态系统服务(ES),其评估方法可分为三类(生态、社会文化和经济)。本手稿旨在概述有关草原生态系统服务的学术研究以及最常用的经济评估方法。为此,我们使用科学数据库 Scopus 和 VOSviewer 软件进行了系统的文献计量学综述。结果表明,中国和美国是发表有关草地提供的生态系统服务的论文数量最多的主要国家。也许是由于《千年生态系统评估》等有影响力的文件的出版以及人们对生态政策问题的普遍关注,从 2005 年开始,出版物的数量开始增长。2023 年的文件绝对数量最多(646 篇),这表明了该研究课题的及时性、重要性和相关性。研究最多的草原生态系统服务是碳储存;不过,生物多样性也发挥着核心作用。在这种情况下,从经济角度估算草原生态系统服务的论文仅占 Scopus 检索到的所有论文的 3%。其中一半以上提到使用等效系数来计算不同土地利用/土地覆盖类别的 ES 价值,或最多计算 11 种 ES 的价值。所有这些都凸显了从经济角度估算草地所提供的单项环境服务的难度,以及更倾向于使用物理、化学和生物指标。因此,要实现草地的可持续管理,就需要对草地生态系统服务的经济评估以及政府经济核算中的环境问题进行更多的研究,或为农场提供各种生态系统服务实施支持系统。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Social Capital on Community Resilience: A Comparative Study of Seven Flood-Prone Communities in Nanjing, China 社会资本对社区抗灾能力的影响:中国南京七个易受洪灾影响社区的比较研究
Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.3390/land13081145
Yi Chen, Hui Liu, Shuchang Lin, Yueping Wang, Qian Zhang, Liaoling Feng
Social capital plays a crucial role in enhancing community resilience during flood disasters. This study investigates the influence of social capital on community resilience in Nanjing, China. Social capital is composed of five aspects: cohesion, collective efficacy, sense of belonging, trust and reciprocity and informal social control. Factor analysis and multiple regression analysis are employed to analyze the dimensions of social capital and its impact on community resilience. Our results demonstrate that social cohesion and collective efficacy are the most representative factors of social capital. Reformed housing communities typically have higher cohesion than those in commercial and affordable housing. Affordable housing communities in flood-prone areas have higher collective efficacy but lower trust and reciprocity. Commercial housing communities have higher informal social control but have great internal differences in collective efficacy. We strongly urge government decision makers to enhance flood resilience by fostering social capital within local communities.
在洪水灾害中,社会资本在提高社区抗灾能力方面发挥着至关重要的作用。本研究探讨了社会资本对中国南京市社区抗灾能力的影响。社会资本包括五个方面:凝聚力、集体效能、归属感、信任与互惠以及非正式社会控制。我们采用因子分析和多元回归分析来分析社会资本的各个维度及其对社区恢复力的影响。结果表明,社会凝聚力和集体效能是最具代表性的社会资本因素。改革型住房社区的凝聚力通常高于商业住房和经济适用房社区。洪水易发地区的经济适用房社区具有较高的集体效能,但信任和互惠程度较低。商业住房社区具有较高的非正式社会控制,但在集体效能方面存在巨大的内部差异。我们强烈呼吁政府决策者通过促进当地社区内的社会资本来增强抗洪能力。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of Urban Land-Use Planning on Housing Prices in Chiang Mai, Thailand 城市土地利用规划对泰国清迈住房价格的影响
Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.3390/land13081136
Shichao Lu, Zhihua Zhang, M. C. Crabbe, Prin Suntichaikul
Chiang Mai is an emerging tourism-oriented city in Thailand. The booming tourism industry during the past decades has triggered significant expansion in its urban land area, resulting in a large number of newly-built residential communities appearing on unplanned land. In this study, we used multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR)-based hedonic price analysis to investigate 4624 housing transactions from 524 residential communities in Chiang Mai. This showed that the recent land-use planning in Chiang Mai has had unusual effects on housing prices; specifically, the effects of accessibility to hospitals, primary and secondary schools, green parks, and shopping malls could be ignored, demonstrating that local residents were well satisfied with land-use planning for high-quality medical and education sources and good living environments throughout the whole of Chiang Mai, and that no more land-use planning and investment on these facilities was needed. However, limited bus routes were only used for tourism and could not provide convenient routes for local residents, leading to their negative effects on housing prices in downtown areas, so the local government should lower the bus stop density in downtown areas and strengthen the transportation links between downtown areas and suburbs. Our study will not only support the urban land planning department of Chiang Mai to optimize residential communities and nearby facilities, but can also provide insights into housing price formation mechanisms in similar tourism-oriented cities in Thailand and beyond.
清迈是泰国一座新兴的旅游城市。过去几十年来,旅游业的蓬勃发展引发了城市用地面积的大幅扩张,导致大量新建住宅社区出现在未规划的土地上。在本研究中,我们使用基于多尺度地理加权回归(MGWR)的享乐主义价格分析方法,调查了清迈 524 个住宅社区的 4624 宗住房交易。结果表明,清迈近期的土地利用规划对房价产生了不同寻常的影响;具体而言,医院、中小学、公园绿地和购物中心的交通便利性的影响可以忽略不计,这表明当地居民对整个清迈的优质医疗和教育资源以及良好居住环境的土地利用规划非常满意,不需要对这些设施进行更多的土地利用规划和投资。然而,有限的公交线路仅用于旅游,无法为当地居民提供便利的路线,导致其对市中心地区的房价产生负面影响,因此当地政府应降低市中心地区的公交站点密度,并加强市中心地区与郊区之间的交通联系。我们的研究不仅有助于清迈城市土地规划部门优化住宅小区和周边设施,还能为泰国及其他类似旅游导向型城市的房价形成机制提供启示。
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引用次数: 0
Stakeholder Participation in REDD+ Program: The Case of the Consultation Process in Laos 利益相关者参与 REDD+ 计划:老挝磋商进程案例
Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.3390/land13081137
Soukphavanh Sawathvong, K. Hyakumura, T. Fujisaki
REDD+ aims to mitigate climate change by reducing deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries while ensuring social and environmental benefits through the involvement of diverse stakeholders. While several studies evaluate stakeholder participation in various aspects of REDD+, such as the level and type of stakeholder participation at both the project and national context level, there is a lack of research on how the government conducted the consultation meetings across all administrative levels. The objective of this study is to evaluate the participation of different stakeholders in REDD+ in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), or Laos, funded by the World Bank, with a focus on analyzing government consultation processes to identify drivers of deforestation and forest degradation. The study applied both a literature review and online interviews, conducted with government officials and representatives of CSOs, which took place from March to April 2020. The results indicate significant involvement from cross-sectoral stakeholders. However, central government agencies and development partners dominated stakeholder participation, potentially influenced by government ownership. Non-state stakeholders, though invited to the consultations, had limited participation, highlighting the need for greater emphasis on their roles to ensure the integration of diverse interests and views in the REDD+ initiative.
REDD+ 旨在通过减少发展中国家的森林砍伐和森林退化来减缓气候变化,同时通过不同利益相关者的参与来确保社会和环境效益。虽然有多项研究对利益相关者参与 REDD+ 的各个方面进行了评估,如利益相关者在项目和国家背景层面的参与程度和类型,但缺乏对政府如何在所有行政级别开展磋商会议的研究。本研究的目的是在世界银行的资助下,对老挝人民民主共和国(Lao PDR)或老挝不同利益相关方参与 REDD+ 的情况进行评估,重点分析政府磋商过程,以确定毁林和森林退化的驱动因素。研究采用了文献综述和在线访谈两种方法,访谈对象包括政府官员和民间社会组织代表,访谈时间为 2020 年 3 月至 4 月。结果表明,跨部门利益相关者的参与度很高。然而,中央政府机构和发展合作伙伴在利益相关者的参与中占主导地位,这可能受到政府所有权的影响。非国家利益相关者虽然应邀参加了磋商,但参与程度有限,这突出表明需要更加重视他们的作用,以确保在 REDD+ 倡议中纳入不同的利益和观点。
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引用次数: 0
An Improved DPSIR-DEA Assessment Model for Urban Resilience: A Case Study of 105 Large Cities in China 改进的城市抗灾能力 DPSIR-DEA 评估模型:中国 105 个大城市案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.3390/land13081133
Liudan Jiao, Bowei Han, Qilin Tan, Yu Zhang, X. Huo, Liu Wu, Ya Wu
Urban development is facing increasingly complex disturbances. Assessing large cities’ urban resilience is important for improving their ability to withstand disturbances and promoting sustainable development. Therefore, this paper establishes an improved assessment model for urban resilience based on the driving force–pressure–state–impact–response (DPSIR) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. The Malmquist index, Dagum Gini coefficient, and Markov chain were sequentially used for spatiotemporal evolution and differential resilience analysis. Then, 105 large Chinese cities were selected as case studies. The results indicate their overall resilience is relatively high; each year’s average resilience efficiency can achieve DEA effectiveness. The distribution pattern of resilience level presents a healthy olive-shaped structure. However, there is also a significant difference between the two poles. During the research period, the combined effect of technological efficiency improvement and technological progress resulted in the overall resilience slowly improving, and this process was more driven by technological innovation. At the same time, the overall regional difference in resilience also shows a narrowing trend, and the current spatial differences mainly come from the difference within subregions and super-density. In future transfer predictions, the resilience of large cities will show good stability with a higher probability of maintaining stability; if the resilience undergoes a transition, the probability of an increase will be higher than a decrease. Based on the life cycle process of resilience, this study selects indicators that can characterize the level of resilience according to the DPSIR model, which comprehensively reflects the characteristics of urban resilience. This study’s results can provide particular reference values for urban disaster response emergency planning and sustainable development construction, and it also provides new ideas for the assessment research of urban resilience.
城市发展正面临着日益复杂的干扰。评估大城市的城市恢复力对于提高其抵御干扰的能力、促进可持续发展具有重要意义。因此,本文在动力-压力-状态-影响-反应(DPSIR)和数据包络分析(DEA)模型的基础上,建立了一个改进的城市弹性评估模型。先后使用马尔奎斯特指数、达古姆基尼系数和马尔科夫链进行时空演化和差异韧性分析。然后,选择中国 105 个大城市作为案例进行研究。结果表明,这些城市的整体恢复力相对较高,每年的平均恢复力效率可以达到 DEA 的有效性。复原力水平的分布格局呈现出健康的橄榄型结构。但两极之间也存在明显差异。研究期间,在技术效率提升和技术进步的共同作用下,整体恢复力缓慢提升,而这一过程更多地受到技术创新的推动。与此同时,区域整体恢复力差异也呈现缩小趋势,目前的空间差异主要来自于次区域内部差异和超密度差异。在未来转移预测中,大城市的恢复力将呈现良好的稳定性,保持稳定的概率较高;如果恢复力发生转变,上升的概率将高于下降的概率。基于韧性的生命周期过程,本研究根据 DPSIR 模型选取了能够表征韧性水平的指标,全面反映了城市韧性的特征。该研究成果可为城市救灾应急规划和可持续发展建设提供特定的参考价值,也为城市抗灾能力的评估研究提供了新思路。
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