A hitchhiker's guide to Europe: mapping human-mediated spread of the invasive Japanese beetle

Abstract

Early detection of hitchhiking pests requires the identification of strategic introduction points via transport. We propose a framework for achieving this in Europe using the Japanese beetle (Popillia japonica) as a case study. Human-mediated spread has been responsible for its introduction into several continents over the last century, including a recent introduction in continental Europe, where it is now listed as a priority pest. Furthermore, recent interceptions far from the infested area confirm the risk of unintentional transport within continental Europe. Here, we analysed how three modes of transport - air, rail and road - connect the infested area to the rest of Europe. We ranked all European regions from most to least reachable from the infested area. We identified border regions and distant major cities that are readily reachable and observed differences between modes. We propose a composite reachability index combining the three transport modes, which provides a valuable tool for designing a continental surveillance strategy and prioritising highly reachable regions, as demonstrated by recent interceptions.