Future Prediction of Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) in Rapti River Basin Using Model ACCESS-CM2 Climate Projection

Abstract

The Rapti River basin in India is a region increasingly vulnerable to extreme precipitation events, which pose significant challenges to water resource management and flood mitigation. This study investigates the extreme precipitation patterns in the Rapti River Basin, India, by analyzing historical and projected data using advanced climate models and indices. Utilizing the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) framework, we focus on Consecutive Dry Days (CDD). The study evaluates the trends under different global warming scenarios of 1.5˚C, 2˚C, and 3˚C, employing ACCESS-CM2 Model. The findings reveal significant variations in the trends and magnitudes of CDD across the different warming levels. At 1.5˚C, CDD shows a decreasing trend. At 2˚C, models project a continued decrease in CDD. At 3˚C, mixed trends are observed with notable increases in CDD, highlighting the potential for prolonged wet periods and increased flood risks. The study underscores the impact of climate change on the hydrological behavior of the Rapti River Basin, emphasizing the need for adaptive water resource management strategies. It provides valuable insights into the future precipitation trends in the Rapti River Basin, guiding the development of strategies to enhance resilience against climate-induced hydrological changes.