The optimization approach for uncertainty assessment of the heating value of aviation fuel

Abstract

Accurately determining the calorific value of aviation kerosene is crucial for optimizing aircraft engine efficiency and design testing. However, current measurement methods exhibit significant uncertainties, necessitating an assessment of the uncertainty associated with measuring the calorific value of aviation kerosene to establish precise results. The present paper introduces the oxygen bomb calorific value measurement method and the probability box model, proposing an improved aviation kerosene calorific value uncertainty evaluation method by combining it with the MCM method. An uncertainty evaluation model based on GUM method, MCM method, and improved MCM method is established in conjunction with experimental data. The analysis of different models demonstrates that the improved MCM method effectively considers the uncertainty of corresponding distribution parameters of variables based on their own uncertainties, providing a reliable approach for calculating the heating value uncertainty of aviation kerosene.