Generating synthetic building electrical load profiles using machine learning based on the CRISP-ML(Q) framework

Abstract

This study presents a machine learning application for generating synthetic building electrical load profiles. The implementation followed the Cross Industry Standard Process for the development of Machine Learning Applications with Quality assurance methodology, or CRISP-ML(Q) framework, to ensure a systematic machine learning development process. The model training performance was evaluated using the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RSME), and coefficient of determination (R2) which were observed to be 0.0739, 0.1119, and 0.5728, respectively. These metrics remained consistent during the model testing phase, suggesting robust model performance. During the initial simulation experiment, the MAE and RMSE of the generated synthetic load profile were found to be 0.014 and 0.016, respectively, underscoring high model accuracy. Additional evaluation experiments showed that the developed machine learning application can generate realistic building load profiles using high-level parameters such as building type, average daily load, and peak demand. This study can aid in the development of demand-side management strategies and building energy management systems by providing realistic building electrical load profiles especially when real-world data is limited. For future work, researchers can consider integrating additional model features, refining data processing methods, and developing an agile version of the CRISP-ML(Q) framework.