{"title":"Protectionism, bilateral integration, and the cross section of exchange rate returns in US presidential debates","authors":"Jantke de Boer , Stefan Eichler , Ingmar Rövekamp","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103134","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on the cross section of intraday exchange rate returns of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. The performance of the candidates in the debate is an exogenous shock to the election probability. We find that currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the US depreciate if the election probability of the protectionist candidate increases during the debate, while no significant impact is detected for countries with bilateral US exports to GDP below 2 percent. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes, while the candidates' stance towards military and immigration play a minor role.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103134"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624001219/pdfft?md5=3e8eb5f475a30dd987cf1fb330710541&pid=1-s2.0-S0261560624001219-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of International Money and Finance","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624001219","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on the cross section of intraday exchange rate returns of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. The performance of the candidates in the debate is an exogenous shock to the election probability. We find that currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the US depreciate if the election probability of the protectionist candidate increases during the debate, while no significant impact is detected for countries with bilateral US exports to GDP below 2 percent. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes, while the candidates' stance towards military and immigration play a minor role.
期刊介绍：
Since its launch in 1982, Journal of International Money and Finance has built up a solid reputation as a high quality scholarly journal devoted to theoretical and empirical research in the fields of international monetary economics, international finance, and the rapidly developing overlap area between the two. Researchers in these areas, and financial market professionals too, pay attention to the articles that the journal publishes. Authors published in the journal are in the forefront of scholarly research on exchange rate behaviour, foreign exchange options, international capital markets, international monetary and fiscal policy, international transmission and related questions.
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