Future Changes in Various Cold Surges over China in CMIP6 Projections

Abstract

Cold surges (CSs) often occur in the mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and have enormous effects on socioeconomic development. We report that the occurrences of CSs and persistent CSs (PCSs) have rebounded since the 1990s, but the trends related to the frequencies of strong CSs (SCSs) and extreme CSs (ECSs) changed from increasing to decreasing after 2000. The highest-ranked model ensemble approach was used to project the occurrences of various CSs under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The frequencies of the total CSs show overall decreasing trends. However, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, slight increasing trends are noted for SCSs and ECSs in China. Atmospheric circulations that are characterized by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation with a significantly positive 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) anomaly at high latitudes along with significant negative anomalies in China were favorable for cold air intrusions into China. In addition, the frequencies of all CS types under the SPP5-8.5 scenario greatly decreased in the long term (2071–2100), a finding which is thought to be related to negative SST anomalies in the central and western North Pacific, differences in sea level pressure (SLP) between high- and mid-latitude regions, and a weaker East Asian trough. In terms of ECSs, the decreasing trends observed during the historical period were maintained until 2024 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. Compared to the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the Z500 pattern showed a trend of strengthened ridges over the Ural region and northern East Asia and weakened troughs over Siberia (60°–90°E) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, contributing to the shift to increasing trends of ECSs after 2014.