Spatiotemporal Evaluation and Future Projection of Diurnal Temperature Range over the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 Models

IF 6.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI:10.1007/s00376-024-3346-0
Suguo Zhang, Qin Hu, Xianhong Meng, Yaqiong Lü, Xianyu Yang
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Abstract

The diurnal temperature range (DTR) serves as a vital indicator reflecting both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. This study investigates the historical and projected multitemporal DTR variations over the Tibetan Plateau. It assesses 23 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) using CN05.1 observational data as validation, evaluating their ability to simulate DTR over the Tibetan Plateau. Then, the evolution of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau under different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios for the near, middle, and long term of future projection are analyzed using 11 selected robustly performing models. Key findings reveal: (1) Among the models examined, BCC-CSM2-MR, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-CC, EC-Earth3-Veg, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, FGOALS-g3, FIO-ESM-2-0, GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI- ESM1-2-LR, and INM-CM5-0 exhibit superior integrated simulation capability for capturing the spatiotemporal variability of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau. (2) Projection indicates a slightly increasing trend in DTR on the Tibetan Plateau in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, and decreasing trends in the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SPP5-8.5 scenarios. In certain areas, such as the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, western hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, southern Kunlun, and the Qaidam basins, the changes in DTR are relatively large. (3) Notably, the warming rate of maximum temperature under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SPP5-8.5 is slower compared to that of minimum temperature, and it emerges as the primary contributor to the projected decrease in DTR over the Tibetan Plateau in the future.

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CMIP6 模型中青藏高原昼夜温差的时空评估和未来预测
昼夜温差(DTR)是反映自然气候变异和人为气候变化的重要指标。本研究调查了青藏高原昼夜温差的历史变化和预测变化。它以 CN05.1 观测数据为验证,评估了耦合模式相互比较项目(CMIP6)第 6 阶段的 23 个气候模式,评价了它们模拟青藏高原 DTR 的能力。然后,利用 11 个性能稳健的模型,分析了在不同的共享社会经济路径(SSP)情景下,青藏高原近、中、远期 DTR 的演变情况。主要研究结果表明:(1)在所研究的模式中,BCC-CSM2-MR、EC-Earth3、EC-Earth3-CC、EC-Earth3-Veg、EC-Earth3-Veg-LR、FGOALS-g3、FIO-ESM-2-0、GFDL-ESM4、MPI-ESM1-2-HR、MPI-ESM1-2-LR 和 INM-CM5-0 在捕捉青藏高原 DTR 时空变率方面表现出卓越的综合模拟能力。(2) 预测结果表明,在 SSP1-2.6 情景下,青藏高原 DTR 略有上升趋势,而在 SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和 SPP5-8.5 情景下,DTR 呈下降趋势。在某些地区,如青藏高原东南边缘、青藏高原西部腹地、昆仑南部和柴达木盆地,DTR 的变化相对较大。(3)值得注意的是,在 SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和 SPP5-8.5 条件下,最高气温的升温速率比最低气温的升温速率慢,是未来青藏高原 DTR 预计下降的主要原因。
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来源期刊
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
5.20%
发文量
154
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, launched in 1984, aims to rapidly publish original scientific papers on the dynamics, physics and chemistry of the atmosphere and ocean. It covers the latest achievements and developments in the atmospheric sciences, including marine meteorology and meteorology-associated geophysics, as well as the theoretical and practical aspects of these disciplines. Papers on weather systems, numerical weather prediction, climate dynamics and variability, satellite meteorology, remote sensing, air chemistry and the boundary layer, clouds and weather modification, can be found in the journal. Papers describing the application of new mathematics or new instruments are also collected here.
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