Regional irrigation expansion can support climate-resilient crop production in post-invasion Ukraine

Abstract

Ukraine supplies a large proportion of grain and oilseeds to the world market and faces disruptions from the Russian invasion in 2022. Here we explore the combined effects of the invasion and climate change on Ukraine’s irrigation. In 2021, only 1.6% of Ukraine’s cropland was irrigated. Of this portion, 73% experienced substantial declines in irrigated crop production following the invasion. We estimate that by the mid-twenty-first century, three-quarters of croplands will experience water shortages, making business-as-usual rain-fed agricultural practices inadequate in addressing the challenges posed by climate change. We explore how leveraging local surface and groundwater resources could enable sustainable irrigation expansion over 18 million hectares of croplands and form a viable climate adaptation strategy. Finally, we identify regions for implementing enhancements or expansions of irrigation systems that can foster a more resilient agricultural sector—underscoring the growing importance of irrigation in sustaining crop production in Ukraine. Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in 2023 caused water shortages in two-thirds of Ukraine’s irrigated regions, highlighting the need for localized and climate-resilient irrigation strategies to support future crop production in Ukraine.