Modelling the multiple action pathways of projected climate change on the Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) early life stages

Abstract

Understanding how future ocean conditions will impact early life stages and population recruitment of fishes is critical for adapting fisheries communities to climate change. In this study, we incorporated projected changes in physical and biological ecosystem dynamics from an oceanographic model into a mechanistic individual-based model for larval and juvenile stages of the Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in the eastern Bering Sea. We particularly investigated the impacts of ocean currents, temperature, prey density, and pCO2 on the hatching success, growth, survival, and spatial distribution of this species during 2021–2100. We evaluated two CO₂ emission scenarios: RCP8.5 (high CO₂ emissions, low mitigation efforts) and RCP4.5 (medium CO₂ emissions and mitigation efforts). We found that the increase in temperature and decrease in prey density were the main drivers of faster growth rates and lower survival through increased starvation by the end of the century. Conversely, pCO₂ had negligible impacts, which suggests that this species might be resilient to ocean acidification. The largest effects were observed under the high CO₂ emission scenario, while the RCP4.5 projections displayed minimal impacts. We also identified an area with favourable conditions in the southeastern Bering Sea that will likely persist in future decades. This study provides relevant information on the future impacts of climate change on Pacific cod, and our results can be used to implement and inform climate-ready management for this important stock in Alaska.