Forecasting animal distribution through individual habitat selection: insights for population inference and transferable predictions

Abstract

Habitat selection models frequently use data collected from a small geographic area over a short window of time to extrapolate patterns of relative abundance into unobserved areas or periods of time. However, such models often poorly predict the distribution of animal space-use intensity beyond the place and time of data collection, presumably because space-use behaviors vary between individuals and environmental contexts. Similarly, ecological inference based on habitat selection models could be muddied or biased due to unaccounted individual and context dependencies. Here, we present a modeling workflow designed to allow transparent variance-decomposition of habitat-selection patterns, and consequently improved inferential and predictive capacities. Using global positioning system (GPS) data collected from 238 individual pronghorn, Antilocapra americana, across three years in Utah, USA, we combine individual-year-season-specific exponential habitat-selection models with weighted mixed-effects regressions to both draw inference about the drivers of habitat selection and predict space-use in areas/times where/when pronghorn were not monitored. We found a tremendous amount of variation in both the magnitude and direction of habitat selection behavior across seasons, but also across individuals, geographic regions, and years. We were able to attribute portions of this variation to season, movement strategy, sex, and regional variability in resources, conditions, and risks. We were also able to partition residual variation into inter- and intra-individual components. We then used the results to predict population-level, spatially and temporally dynamic, habitat-selection coefficients across Utah, resulting in a temporally dynamic map of pronghorn distribution at a 30 × 30 m resolution but an extent of 220 000 km². We believe our transferable workflow can provide managers and researchers alike a way to turn limitations of traditional habitat selection models – variability in habitat selection – into a tool to understand and predict species-habitat associations across space and time.