Persuading while Learning

Itai Arieli, Yakov Babichenko, Dimitry Shaiderman, Xianwen Shi
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Abstract

We propose a dynamic product adoption persuasion model involving an impatient partially informed sender who gradually learns the state. In this model, the sender gathers information over time, and hence her posteriors' sequence forms a discrete-time martingale. The sender commits to a dynamic revelation policy to persuade the agent to adopt a product. We demonstrate that under the assumption that the sender's martingale possesses Blackwell-preserving kernels, the family of optimal strategies for the sender takes an interval form; namely, in every period the set of martingale realizations in which adoption occurs is an interval. Utilizing this, we prove that if the sender is sufficiently impatient, then under a random walk martingale, the optimal policy is fully transparent up to the moment of adoption; namely, the sender reveals the entire information she privately holds in every period.
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边学习边说服
我们提出了一个动态产品采纳说服模型,该模型涉及一个不耐烦的部分知情的发送者,她会逐渐了解状态。在这个模型中,发送者会随着时间的推移收集信息,因此她的后验序列会形成离散时间的马丁格尔。发送者承诺采用动态启示政策来说服代理人采用某种产品。我们证明,在假设发送者的马丁格尔具有布莱克韦尔保全核的情况下,发送者的最优策略族采用区间形式;即在每个周期中,采用产品的马丁格尔实现集是一个区间。利用这一点,我们证明了如果发送者足够耐心,那么在随机游走的马丁格尔条件下,最优策略直到采用的那一刻都是完全透明的;也就是说,发送者在每个时期都会透露她私人持有的全部信息。
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