A Machine Learning Predictive Model for Ureteroscopy Lasertripsy Outcomes in a Pediatric Population-Results from a Large Endourology Tertiary Center.

Abstract

Introduction: We aimed to develop machine learning (ML) algorithms for the automated prediction of postoperative ureteroscopy outcomes for pediatric kidney stones based on preoperative characteristics. Materials and Methods: Data from pediatric patients who underwent ureteroscopy for stone treatment by a single experienced surgeon, between 2010 and 2023 in Southampton General Hospital, were retrospectively collected. Fifteen ML classification algorithms were used to investigate correlations between preoperative characteristics and postoperative outcomes: primary stone-free status (SFS, defined as stone fragments <2 mm at the end of the procedure confirmed endoscopically and no evidence of stone fragments >2 mm at Xray kidney-ureters-bladder (XR KUB) or ultrasound kidney-ureters-bladder (US KUB) at 3 months follow-up) and complications. For the task of complication and stone status, an ensemble model was made out of Bagging classifier, Extra Trees classifier, and linear discriminant analysis. Also, a multitask neural network was constructed for the simultaneous prediction of all postoperative characteristics. Finally, explainable artificial intelligence techniques were used to explain the prediction made by the best models. Results: The ensemble model produced the highest accuracy (90%) in predicting SFS, finding correlation with overall stone size (-0.205), presence of multiple stones (-0.127), and preoperative stenting (-0.102). Complications were predicted by Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) oversampled dataset (93.3% accuracy) with relation to preoperative positive urine culture (-0.060) a1nd SFS (0.003). Training ML for the multitask model, accuracies of 83.3% and 80% were respectively reached. Conclusion: ML has a great potential of assisting health care research, with possibilities to investigate dataset at a higher level. With the aid of this intelligent tool, urologists can implement their practice and develop new strategies for outcome prediction and patient counseling and informed shared decision-making. Our model reached an excellent accuracy in predicting SFS and complications in the pediatric population, leading the way to the validation of patient-specific predictive tools.