Variability, Trends and Return Periods of Extreme Rainfall Events (EREs) over the North-Western Indian Himalayan Region (NW-IHR)

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI:10.1007/s00024-024-03542-9
Anup Upadhyaya, Abhishek K. Rai, Priyankar Kumar
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Abstract

Daily gridded rainfall data from 1901 to 2020, were used to study the seasonal variation of the Extreme Rainfall Events (EREs) and Cumulative Exceedance (CumExc) at the 95th and 99th percentile thresholds in the North-Western Indian Himalayan Region (NW-IHR). The Mann–Kendall and Modified Mann–Kendall tests were used to assess the trends in EREs across seasons, besides comparing the CumExc and frequency of EREs between 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. Additionally, return periods of CumExc were estimated to predict future rainfall intensities. Among the 49 NW-IHR districts, Bandipore (J&K) reported the highest EREs (> 95th percentile) during winter and pre-monsoon, Baramulla (J&K) during post-monsoon, and Pithoragarh (UK) during monsoon. At the 99th percentile, Lahaul & Spiti (HP) recorded the most number of EREs in winter, Bandipore (J&K) in pre-monsoon, Pithoragarh (UK) in monsoon, and Baramulla (J&K) in post-monsoon. The trends of EREs indicate a substantial increase (at > 99th percentile) for all seasons in most of the region. EREs intensity between 1991–2020 is significantly higher than 1961–1990, particularly in the northern region during winter. Nevertheless, during pre- and post-monsoon seasons, most areas experienced a decline in EREs and CumExc. Estimates of CumExc suggest that UK is likely to encounter higher intensities of rainfall extremes compared to HP, J&K, and Ladakh within a 5-year and 10-year return period. This study is crucial for understanding extreme weather events in a climate change-sensitive region, providing insights into EREs frequency, trends, and return periods, which can aid in predicting flash floods and facilitating effective planning and mitigation strategies.

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印度西北喜马拉雅地区(NW-IHR)极端降雨事件(EREs)的变化、趋势和重现期
利用 1901 年至 2020 年的日网格降雨数据,研究了印度西北喜马拉雅地区(NW-IHR)极端降雨事件(EREs)的季节性变化以及第 95 和 99 百分位数阈值的累积超标(CumExc)。除了比较 1961-1990 年和 1991-2020 年的累计超标率和超标频率外,还使用 Mann-Kendall 检验和修正 Mann-Kendall 检验来评估不同季节的EREs 趋势。此外,还估算了 CumExc 的回归期,以预测未来的降雨强度。在 49 个西北内陆高原地区中,班迪波尔(J&K)在冬季和季风前的EREs(第 95 百分位数)最高,巴拉穆拉(J&K)在季风后的EREs最高,皮托拉加尔(UK)在季风期间的EREs最高。在第 99 百分位数中,拉豪尔和斯皮蒂(HP)在冬季录得的ERE次数最多,班迪波尔(J&K)在季风前录得的ERE次数最多,皮托拉加尔(UK)在季风期录得的ERE次数最多,巴拉穆拉(J&K)在季风后录得的ERE次数最多。EREs的趋势表明,大部分地区所有季节的EREs都在大幅增加(第99百分位数)。1991-2020 年间的EREs 强度明显高于 1961-1990 年,尤其是北部地区的冬季。然而,在季风前后季节,大部分地区的 EREs 和 CumExc 都有所下降。对 CumExc 的估计表明,与 HP、J&K 和拉达克相比,英国在 5 年和 10 年重现期内可能会遭遇强度更高的极端降雨。这项研究对于了解气候变化敏感地区的极端天气事件至关重要,它提供了有关EREs频率、趋势和重现期的见解,有助于预测山洪暴发,促进有效的规划和缓解策略。
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来源期刊
pure and applied geophysics
pure and applied geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
5.00%
发文量
240
审稿时长
9.8 months
期刊介绍: pure and applied geophysics (pageoph), a continuation of the journal "Geofisica pura e applicata", publishes original scientific contributions in the fields of solid Earth, atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Regular and special issues feature thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and state-of-the-art surveys. Long running journal, founded in 1939 as Geofisica pura e applicata Publishes peer-reviewed original scientific contributions and state-of-the-art surveys in solid earth and atmospheric sciences Features thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and is a major source for publications on tsunami research Coverage extends to research topics in oceanic sciences See Instructions for Authors on the right hand side.
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