Political tax cycles in the US states: Opportunism versus ideological sincerity in governors' revenue proposals

Abstract

Do politicians behave opportunistically regarding their tax proposals during the election cycle, or do they maintain ideological sincerity? We examine U.S. governors' revenue proposals between the years of 1989 and 2018 to assess gubernatorial behavior during election years. We find that governors, in general, do indeed follow a political budget cycle where they request lower revenues during election years. However, this finding is largely driven by Democratic governors asking for significantly lower revenues during election years when compared to non-election years. Republican governors are more ideologically sincere, maintaining behaviors that are consistent across the election cycle.