The Forecast Skills and Predictability Sources of Marine Heatwaves in the NUIST-CFS1.0 Hindcasts

Abstract

Using monthly observations and ensemble hindcasts of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System (NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period 1983–2020, this study investigates the forecast skill of marine heatwaves (MHWs) over the globe and the predictability sources of the MHWs over the tropical oceans. The MHW forecasts are demonstrated to be skillful on seasonal-annual time scales, particularly in tropical oceans. The forecast skill of the MHWs over the tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO) remains high at lead times of 1–24 months, indicating a forecast better than random chance for up to two years. The forecast skill is subject to the spring predictability barrier of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The forecast skills for the MHWs over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), tropical Atlantic Ocean (TAO), and tropical Northwest Pacific (NWP) are lower than that in the TPO. A reliable forecast at lead times of up to two years is shown over the TIO, while a shorter reliable forecast window (less than 17 months) occurs for the TAO and NWP. Additionally, the forecast skills for the TIO, TAO, and NWP are seasonally dependent. Higher skills for the TIO and TAO appear in boreal spring, while a greater skill for the NWP emerges in late summer-early autumn. Further analyses suggest that ENSO serves as a critical source of predictability for MHWs over the TIO and TAO in spring and MHWs over the NWP in summer.