Techno-economic analysis of electrofuel as a shipping fuel

Abstract

In this study, we aim to evaluate the technical and economic requirements of electrofuel production through Fischer-Tropsch synthesis using green hydrogen and CO2. We find that a plant with a 1 000-barrel per day capacity necessitates 60 tH2 and 424 tCO2 daily, achieving a 36% hydrogen-to-electrofuel conversion rate. The initial capital expenditure (CAPEX) is projected at 295 million USD, with an additional 139 million USD for electrolyzer replacement. The hydrogen production unit accounts for 61% of the CAPEX, followed by the direct air capture unit at 22%. The annual operating expense (OPEX) is estimated at 49.3 million USD, with hydrogen production and direct air capture constituting 58% and 25% of this expense, respectively, largely due to substantial electricity requirements. The synthesis and refining units comprise 17% of the OPEX. The levelized cost of electrofuel is calculated at 1881 USD/t, which is 2.5 times the cost of marine gas oil and 3.8 times that of very low sulfur fuel oil. However, electrofuels emission factor is found to be significantly lower, nearly 14 times less carbon-intensive than traditional fuels. We conclude that electrofuels cost competitiveness with fossil fuels depends on favorable conditions such as low electricity costs, low discount rates, and high carbon prices. While the EU's ETS inclusion for maritime transport will lessen the cost disparity, it is unlikely to make electrofuels cost-competitive given the current carbon prices.