Exploring the path to achieve sustainable agricultural development: An empirical analysis based on the modernization of agriculture in six central China provinces

Yuhui Luo, Bangwang Li, Jianan Wang
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Abstract

Agricultural modernization is an important component of sustainable development. This study uses panel data from six central provinces in China to measure the level of agricultural modernization from 2012 to 2021 using the entropy‐weighted TOPSIS method, kernel density estimation method, and Markov chain method. The results show that the level of agricultural modernization in central provinces has generally increased, with a distribution pattern of “low in high latitudes, high in middle dimensions, and low in low latitudes.” The kernel density estimation indicates regional differences in agricultural modernization within the central provinces. Although the absolute differences among central provinces are dynamically changing, the overall trend is decreasing, and the polarization trend is gradually weakening. It is challenging for central provinces to achieve leap‐forward development in agricultural modernization within a short period. The level of agricultural modernization in central provinces has significant spatial dependence characteristics, and neighboring provinces with higher levels can better promote the level of agricultural modernization in the province.
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探索实现农业可持续发展的路径:基于中国中部六省农业现代化的实证分析
农业现代化是可持续发展的重要组成部分。本研究利用中国中部六省的面板数据,采用熵权 TOPSIS 法、核密度估计法和马尔科夫链法测度 2012 年至 2021 年的农业现代化水平。结果表明,中部省份农业现代化水平普遍提高,呈现出 "高纬度低、中维度高、低纬度低 "的分布格局。核密度估计结果表明,中部省份农业现代化水平存在区域差异。虽然中部省份间的绝对差异呈动态变化,但总体趋势是缩小的,极化趋势逐渐减弱。中部省份要在短期内实现农业现代化的跨越式发展,具有一定的挑战性。中部省份农业现代化水平具有显著的空间依存特征,周边水平较高的省份可以更好地促进本省农业现代化水平的提升。
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