Does Climate Variability Influence Internal Migration Flows in Senegal? An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the total effect of climate variability on interregional migration flows in Senegal. We match regional climate data at origin, represented by normalised rainfall and normalised temperatures (maximum and minimum), with regional migration flow data from Senegal’s Agence Nationale de la Statistique et de la Démographie (ANSD) censuses to construct a panel database covering the five-yearly internal migration waves of 1976, 1988, 2001 and 2013. Using a gravity equation model where migration flows are explained by measures of climatic variability at origin, controlled for geographical, socioeconomic and demographic factors traditionally identified in the literature. Our results show that only negative precipitation anomalies at the origin area act as a push factor and accelerate emigration. In the predominantly agricultural regions, rainfall deficits appear, alongside traditional socioeconomic variables, as an additional significant factor shaping mobility across the country.