Critical Analysis of Status of Counter-Terrorism Strategies in Manda, Lamu County, Kenya: A Multifaceted Examination of HUMINT and SIGINT

Abstract

This paper presents a critical analysis of counter-terrorism strategies in Kenya, with a specific focus on the multifaceted examination of Human Intelligence (HUMINT) and Signals Intelligence (SIGINT). The study employed a sequential explanatory mixed-methods research design integrates both qualitative and quantitative approaches to provide a thorough understanding of Kenya's efforts to combat terrorism. The target population of this study encompassed participants involved in counter-terrorism activities in Kenya. This included officers in security agencies such as the National Intelligence Service and the Kenya Defense Forces which formed our target population. A total of 93 officers participated. The respondents were drawn through purposive sampling. By addressing multiple levels of involvement, the paper provides a holistic view of counter-terrorism strategies and their impact. Quantitative data was collected through surveys administered to a representative sample of security personnel in the NIS and KDF. Qualitative data on the other hand was collected through interviews. Semi-structured interviews were done with key informants, such as heads of the National Intelligence Service and Kenya Defense Forces helped capture the nuanced perspectives on HUMINT and SIGINT. STATA and Statistical Package for Social Scences (SPSS) Software were used to analyze quantitative data from the survey. The statistical significance between the average expectations and average perceptions in both security agencies was analyzed using two-sample t-tests. Additionally, the significance of the gaps between the agencies was assessed with Hotelling’s T-squared test at a 5% significance level. Pearson’s correlation coefficients were also used to determine the strength and direction of the relationship between the independent variable (s) and the dependent variable. The study generally found that the indicators of the HUMINT strategy were effective in countering terrorism except for source penetration. Further, the study determined that all indicators of SIGINT strategy were ineffective in countering terrorism except for interception of communication and timely warnings.