Concurrent PV production and consumption load forecasting using CT-Transformer deep learning to estimate energy system flexibility

Abstract

The integration of renewable energy sources (RESs) into power systems has increased significantly due to technical, economic, and environmental factors, necessitating greater flexibility to manage variable consumption loads and renewable energy generation. Accurate forecasting of solar energy production and consumption load is critical for enhancing power system flexibility. This study introduces a novel deep learning model, a spatial-temporal hybrid convolutional-transformer (CT-Transformer) network with unique features and extended memory capacity. Additionally, a flexibility index (FI) is introduced to evaluate power system flexibility (PSF) based on the forecasting results. The CT-Transformer forecasts PSF for the next 24 and 168 hours, using the FI to evaluate PSF based on forecasting results. The input data includes meteorological, solar energy production, load demand, and pricing data from France, comprising hourly data from 2015 and 2016 (about 17,520 entries). Data preprocessing involves correcting incomplete and irrelevant segments. The CT-Transformer's performance is compared to other deep learning techniques, showing superior results with the lowest prediction error (2.5%) and a maximum error of 10.1% (MAE). It also achieved a prediction error of 0.08% for system flexibility, compared to the highest error of 0.96%. This research highlights the CT-Transformer's potential for accurate RES and load forecasting and PSF evaluation.