Recurring suboptimal choices result in superior decision making.

IF 1.5 Q3 MANAGEMENT Decision Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI:10.1037/dec0000240

Supratik Mondal, Dominik Lenda, Jakub Traczyk

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In real-life situations involving risk and uncertainty, optimal policy hinges on selecting a course of action characterized by the highest expected value (i.e., future outcomes weighted by their probabilities). Nevertheless, a vast body of �ndings from economic and psychological studies indicate that people rarely follow this principle and make suboptimal choices. In the current research, we tested a hypothesis that recurring suboptimal choices result in superior decision making. In one simulation study and three well-powered (N = 1,046) fully-incentivized empirical studies, we demonstrated that people who traded off their decision accuracy for the number of possible choices performed better (i.e., they earned more money) than those who made optimal decisions in terms of maximizing the expected value. Our results demonstrate that decision makers can adapt to the requirements of a decision task. They are inclined to make more suboptimal decisions, resulting in better overall performance than normatively better choices.

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反复的次优选择会产生卓越的决策。

在涉及风险和不确定性的现实生活中，最优政策的关键在于选择一个具有最高预期值（即未来结果按其概率加权）的行动方案。然而，大量经济学和心理学研究表明，人们很少遵循这一原则，而是做出次优选择。在当前的研究中，我们测试了一个假设，即重复次优选择会导致卓越决策。在一项模拟研究和三项充分激励（N = 1,046 人）的实证研究中，我们证明了以决策准确性换取可能选择数量的人比以预期价值最大化为最优决策的人表现更好（即赚得更多）。我们的研究结果表明，决策者能够适应决策任务的要求。他们倾向于做出更多的次优决策，从而获得比规范上更好的选择更好的整体绩效。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Decision MANAGEMENT-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The aim of the Journal, Decision, is to publish qualitative, quantitative, survey-based, simulation-based research articles at the national and sub-national levels. While there is no stated regional focus of the journal, we are more interested in examining if and how individuals, firms and governments in emerging economies may make decisions differently. Published for the management scholars, business executives and managers, the Journal aims to advance the management research by publishing empirically and theoretically grounded articles in management decision making process. The Editors aim to provide an efficient and high-quality review process to the authors. The Journal accepts submissions in several formats such as original research papers, case studies, review articles and book reviews (book reviews are only by invitation). The Journal welcomes research-based, original and insightful articles on organizational, individual, socio-economic-political, environmental decision making with relevance to theory and practice of business. It also focusses on the managerial decision-making challenges in private, public, private-public partnership and non-profit organizations. The Journal also encourages case studies that provide a rich description of the business or societal contexts in managerial decision-making process including areas – but not limited to – conflict over natural resources, product innovation and copyright laws, legislative or policy change, socio-technical embedding of financial markets, particularly in developing economy, an ethnographic understanding of relations at a workplace, or social network in marketing management, etc. Research topics covered in the Journal include (but not limited to): Finance and Accounting Organizational Theory and Behavior Decision Science Public Policy-Economic Insights Operation Management Innovation and Entrepreneurship Information Technology and Systems Management Optimization and Modelling Supply Chain Management Data Analytics Marketing Management Human Resource Management