Spatiotemporal Changes and Simulation Prediction of Ecological Security Pattern on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Based on Deep Learning

Abstract

Over the past two decades, due to the combined effects of natural and human factors, the ecological environment and resources of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) have faced serious threats, profoundly impacting its ecosystem and the lives of its residents. Therefore, the establishment of the ecological security pattern (ESP) is crucial to cope with climate change, maintain ecosystem function, and sustainable development. Based on the Pressure–State–Response (PSR) model, this study constructed an evaluation index system for the ecological security (ES) of the QTP, evaluated the ES of the QTP during 2000–2020, and predicted the ES of the QTP during 2025–2035 based on the deep learning model. Combined with the residents’ perception of ES, the ES of the QTP was evaluated comprehensively. The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the ES value of the QTP continued to rise, the number of dangerous and sensitive counties decreased, and the number of other counties increased. The overall spatial distribution features higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest and central regions. (2) From 2000 to 2020, both hot spots and cold spots on the QTP decreased, with the hot spots mainly concentrated in the southeast of the QTP, represented by Yunnan Province, and the cold spots shifting from west to east, mainly concentrated in the central QTP, represented by Qinghai Province. (3) The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model demonstrates high prediction accuracy. Based on the prediction of LSTM, the ES value of the QTP will continue to rise from 2025 to 2035, and the number of safe counties will reach the highest level in history. The spatial distribution is still higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest and central regions. (4) By analyzing residents’ perception of 25 potential factors that may affect the ES of the QTP, the results show that residents generally believe that these factors have an important impact on ES, and their evaluation is between “important” and “very important”. In addition, there is a significant correlation between these factors and the predicted values of ES. The results of the study will help to improve our understanding of the overall ecological environment of the QTP, provide accurate positioning and reasonable help for the government to formulate relevant protection strategies, and lay a methodological and practical foundation for the sustainable development of the QTP.