{"title":"Comments on “Lessons from history for successful disinflation” by Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer","authors":"Donald Kohn","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103646","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In these comments I extend the Romers' analysis to 1982–95, when inflation fell from 6 % to effective price stability with only one small recession. The Fed accomplished this, despite being only “moderately committed” to disinflation in the Romer classification, through careful weighing of shifting costs and benefits from tightening as inflation continued to moderate. Though policy backed off several times before stability was clearly in sight, success resulted from keeping focus on the ultimate price stability goal, pre-empting surges in inflation, and paying close attention to expectations. I close with suggestions about how the Fed can strengthen its price stability commitment in the 5-year review of its policy framework slated to begin in 2024.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103646"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Monetary Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393224000990","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In these comments I extend the Romers' analysis to 1982–95, when inflation fell from 6 % to effective price stability with only one small recession. The Fed accomplished this, despite being only “moderately committed” to disinflation in the Romer classification, through careful weighing of shifting costs and benefits from tightening as inflation continued to moderate. Though policy backed off several times before stability was clearly in sight, success resulted from keeping focus on the ultimate price stability goal, pre-empting surges in inflation, and paying close attention to expectations. I close with suggestions about how the Fed can strengthen its price stability commitment in the 5-year review of its policy framework slated to begin in 2024.
期刊介绍：
The profession has witnessed over the past twenty years a remarkable expansion of research activities bearing on problems in the broader field of monetary economics. The strong interest in monetary analysis has been increasingly matched in recent years by the growing attention to the working and structure of financial institutions. The role of various institutional arrangements, the consequences of specific changes in banking structure and the welfare aspects of structural policies have attracted an increasing interest in the profession. There has also been a growing attention to the operation of credit markets and to various aspects in the behavior of rates of return on assets. The Journal of Monetary Economics provides a specialized forum for the publication of this research.
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