Precipitation dynamics and its interactions with possible drivers over global highlands

IF 4 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104529

Haider Abbas , Azfar Hussain , Ming Xu

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Abstract

The climate and ecosystem in the highland regions are fragile and vulnerable to climate change. This study used ERA5, CRU, and CHIRPS at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to assess spatiotemporal precipitation trends over global highlands from 1981 to 2021. The Standardized anomaly index (SAI) is used to evaluate the comparative anomalies between the datasets, while the Mann-Kendall and Sen Slope estimator tests the precipitation trends. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF), pixel-wise correlation, and detrended cross-correlation (DCCA) were employed to investigate the dominant precipitation patterns and their relationships with regional climatic impacts, while the wavelet analysis determines ocean-atmospheric factors in the time-frequency domain. The SAI correlation strongly relates to CRU-CHIRPS for precipitation estimates in North America (NA) R² = 0.84, Europe R² = 0.71, and South America (SA), whereas CRU-ERA5 showed better results in the Asian highlands R² = 0.29, highlighting regional differences in the precipitation dynamics. For precipitation, EOF1 showed a positive variance in most highland regions, but a negative variance prevailed in the Tibetan Plateau (TP), whereas EOF1–2 explained ∼32%, 33%, and 30% variance globally for ERA, CRU, and CHRIPS, respectively. A strong positive correlation is observed between precipitation and mean temperature (TMP) in North America (NA) and the European Alps. However, a significant negative correlation prevailed in the TP and some parts of NA, indicating that these factors can significantly influence the precipitation dynamics in the highlands. Additionally, Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) has verified that there are positive correlations between precipitation and key climatic factors such as total column water vapor (TCWV), potential evaporation (PEV), and soil moisture (SM). In addition, the influence of ocean-atmospheric (interannual and decadal) coherence patterns originating from the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans indicates a significant impact on precipitation variability, especially in the Asian highlands. This study can contribute to a better understanding of mechanisms and serve as a reference for forecasting precipitation dynamics to develop corresponding strategies in global highlands.

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全球高原降水动态及其与可能驱动因素的相互作用

高原地区的气候和生态系统十分脆弱，很容易受到气候变化的影响。本研究采用ERA5、CRU和CHIRPS的0.5° × 0.5°分辨率，评估1981年至2021年全球高原地区的时空降水趋势。标准化异常指数（SAI）用于评估数据集之间的比较异常，而 Mann-Kendall 和 Sen Slope 估计器则用于检验降水趋势。利用经验正交函数（EOF）、像素相关性和去趋势交叉相关性（DCCA）研究了主要降水模式及其与区域气候影响的关系，而小波分析则确定了时频域中的海洋-大气因素。在北美洲（NA）、欧洲（R2 = 0.71）和南美洲（SA）的降水量估算中，SAI 相关性与 CRU-CHIRPS 关系密切，而 CRU-ERA5 在亚洲高原地区的结果更好，R2 = 0.29，突显了降水动态的区域差异。就降水而言，EOF1 在大多数高原地区显示出正方差，但在青藏高原（TP）则普遍显示出负方差，而 EOF1-2 对 ERA、CRU 和 CHRIPS 的全球解释方差分别为 32%、33% 和 30%。在北美（NA）和欧洲阿尔卑斯山，降水和平均气温（TMP）之间存在很强的正相关性。然而，TP 和北美洲部分地区的降水与平均气温之间存在明显的负相关，这表明这些因素会对高原地区的降水动态产生重大影响。此外，去趋势交叉相关分析（DCCA）验证了降水与主要气候因子（如总水柱水汽（TCWV）、潜在蒸发量（PEV）和土壤湿度（SM））之间存在正相关关系。此外，来自太平洋和大西洋的海洋-大气（年际和年代）相干模式的影响表明，它对降水变率，尤其是亚洲高原地区的降水变率有重大影响。这项研究有助于更好地理解其机制，并为降水动态预报提供参考，从而为全球高原地区制定相应的战略。

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来源期刊

Global and Planetary Change 地学天文-地球科学综合

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

10.30%

发文量

226

审稿时长

63 days

期刊介绍： The objective of the journal Global and Planetary Change is to provide a multi-disciplinary overview of the processes taking place in the Earth System and involved in planetary change over time. The journal focuses on records of the past and current state of the earth system, and future scenarios , and their link to global environmental change. Regional or process-oriented studies are welcome if they discuss global implications. Topics include, but are not limited to, changes in the dynamics and composition of the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, as well as climate change, sea level variation, observations/modelling of Earth processes from deep to (near-)surface and their coupling, global ecology, biogeography and the resilience/thresholds in ecosystems. Key criteria for the consideration of manuscripts are (a) the relevance for the global scientific community and/or (b) the wider implications for global scale problems, preferably combined with (c) having a significance beyond a single discipline. A clear focus on key processes associated with planetary scale change is strongly encouraged. Manuscripts can be submitted as either research contributions or as a review article. Every effort should be made towards the presentation of research outcomes in an understandable way for a broad readership.