Prediction and transmission analysis of bluetongue disease in China

Abstract

Bluetongue disease is an infectious disease transmitted by Culicoides as vectors, mainly infecting ruminants. Because ruminants play an important role in animal husbandry in China, the outbreak of bluetongue disease can cause serious economic losses. Maxent model was applied to predict the distribution of bluetongue in China based on the data derived from domestic and foreign academic literature databases including CNKI, Wanfang Database, PubMed, Web of Science and Google Scholar. The results showed that annual mean temperature (BIO1), precipitation in driest month (BIO14), sheep density (SD) and altitude (Elev) were the relevant variables of bioclimatic suitable zones for bluetongue disease. Precipitation in wettest month (BIO13), BIO1, BIO14, Elev were the main variables affecting the habitat of the bluetongue vector Culicoides. The most suitable climate for bluetongue infection occurs in southern China, central China and parts of Xinjiang. The suitable living areas of Culicoides are mainly located in southern, central and eastern China, and the overlap of the two suitable areas is high. The study suggested that southern, central, and eastern China are high-risk areas for bluetongue due to the significant overlap of suitable habitats for both the disease and its vector. Implementing effective surveillance and targeted control strategies in these regions is crucial for mitigating the impact of bluetongue disease.