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Relative accuracy of point-of-care tests to rule-in heartworm infection in clinically suspected dogs using Bayesian latent class modelling 使用贝叶斯潜类建模的临床疑似犬的心丝虫感染的点护理测试的相对准确性
IF 2.4 2区 农林科学 Q1 VETERINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2026.106783
P.J. Atkinson , C. Quimby , A. Datt , T.D. Nielsen , C.G.B. Caraguel
Our prospective cross-sectional survey of dogs from Western Fiji aimed to evaluate the fitness of common diagnostic test modalities to rule-in Dirofilaria immitis infection in patients with suggestive clinical history or signs. In the absence of a perfect reference standard, we used latent class modelling to evaluate the relative diagnostic accuracy of two point-of-care (POC) detection modalities – the modified Knott’s test (MKT) to detect circulating microfilaria and four antigen lateral flow immunoassays (LFI): Anigen Rapid Canine HW Ag Test® (Bionote Co.), SNAP® Heartworm RT Test (IDEXX Laboratories), trūRapid Heartworm (Heska), WITNESS Dirofilaria® (Zoetis Inc.). The tests’ fitness for ruling-in infection were compared using the likelihood ratios of a positive result (LR+). The performances of the MKT and the Anigen Rapid LFI to rule-in infection on fresh blood of clinically suspected dogs were moderate to strong (LR+=13.4, 95 %PCI: 6.7–114.6; LR+=20.2, 95 %PCI: 5.4–138.2; respectively) but not consistently different from each other. The Anigen Rapid, SNAP and truRapid tests consistently provided the strongest evidence to rule-in infection. The LR+ of the WITNESS test was approximately twelve times, nine times and two times lower than the SNAP, truRapid and Anigen Rapid LFIs respectively (Bayesian p-value 0.002, 0.004 and 0.02 respectively). Overall, a positive result from MKT or LFIs is suitable to rule-in infection in dogs raising clinical suspicion and would increase the post-test probability of infection similarly. If veterinarians are choosing between LFIs, they should favour either Anigen Rapid, SNAP and truRapid over WITNESS.
我们对来自斐济西部的狗进行前瞻性横断面调查,目的是评估常见诊断测试方式对有提示病史或体征的患者的免疫丝虫感染的适应性。在缺乏完善参考标准的情况下,我们使用潜在类别建模来评估两种即时检测(POC)检测方式的相对诊断准确性——用于检测循环微丝虫病的改良Knott试验(MKT)和四种抗原侧流免疫测定(LFI): Anigen Rapid Canine HW Ag test®(Bionote Co.)、SNAP®Heartworm RT test (IDEXX Laboratories)、trūRapid Heartworm (Heska)、WITNESS Dirofilaria®(Zoetis Inc.)。使用阳性结果的似然比(LR+)比较试验对感染的适用性。MKT和Anigen Rapid LFI对临床疑似犬新鲜血液感染的表现均为中强(LR+=13.4, 95 %PCI: 6.7-114.6; LR+=20.2, 95 %PCI: 5.4-138.2),但差异不一致。Anigen Rapid、SNAP和trurrapid检测始终为规则感染提供最有力的证据。WITNESS试验的LR+分别比SNAP、trurrapid和Anigen Rapid lfi低约12倍、9倍和2倍(贝叶斯p值分别为0.002、0.004和0.02)。总的来说,MKT或lfi的阳性结果适用于引起临床怀疑的犬的常规感染,并且同样会增加检测后感染的概率。如果兽医在lfi之间进行选择,他们应该选择Anigen Rapid、SNAP和trurrapid,而不是WITNESS。
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引用次数: 0
A bayesian analysis of phage-based qPCR and liquid culture for the early detection of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in young dairy calves 基于噬菌体qPCR和液体培养早期检测禽分枝杆菌亚种的贝叶斯分析。乳牛幼崽的副结核
IF 2.4 2区 农林科学 Q1 VETERINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106781
José M. Hernández-Agudelo , Cristóbal Verdugo , Herman W. Barkema , Pamela Steuer , Carlos Tejeda , Fernando Ulloa , Miguel A. Salgado
Bovine paratuberculosis (PTB), caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), is an endemic infectious disease causing significant economic losses, with infection typically occurring in the first months of life. However, early diagnostic in subclinical infected calves is challenging due to the paucibacillary nature and intermittent shedding of the pathogen, which limits the sensitivity (Se) of existing diagnostic tools. This study aimed to estimate and compare the diagnostic Se and specificity (Sp) of a Phage-Magnetic Separation (PhMS) qPCR assay against a qPCR-confirmed liquid culture for the early detection of MAP infection in young dairy calves. Using a Bayesian Latent Class Model (BLCM) that accounted for conditional dependence, we analyzed 528 fecal samples from dairy calves < 60 days of age from 39 commercial herds in Chile. The model revealed that both tests have comparable moderate median Se (PhMS = 45 %; culture = 51 %) and high median Sp (PhMS = 98 %; culture = 100 %) for MAP detection. However, tests were strongly negatively correlated in MAP-infected animals (correlation coefficient, ρDPhMS,Cult = −0.66; 95 % Posterior probability interval [PPI]: −0.91 to −0.12). This strong negative correlation indicates that the tests tend to detect different subsets of the infected population, making them complementary when used in a parallel testing strategy to maximize joint sensitivity (Sej). The estimated mean true within-herd prevalence in calves was 13 % (95 % PPI: 8–22 %). Additionally, the Sp of PhMS-qPCR decreased in high-prevalence herds, possibly due to passive shedding of the pathogen. Critically, leveraging their complementary nature, a parallel interpretation of the tests achieved a high combined Se of 92 % (95 % PPI: 53–100 %), while maintaining a high Sp of 97 %. In conclusion, PhMS-qPCR and qPCR-confirmed liquid culture are complementary diagnostic tools. Their combined use in a parallel testing strategy could provide a highly effective screening algorithm, making it a powerful approach for research settings aiming to maximize case detection.
牛副结核(PTB),由鸟分枝杆菌亚种引起。副肺结核(MAP)是一种地方性传染病,造成重大经济损失,感染通常发生在生命的头几个月。然而,亚临床感染小牛的早期诊断是具有挑战性的,因为缺乏细菌的性质和病原体的间歇性脱落,这限制了现有诊断工具的敏感性(Se)。本研究旨在评估和比较噬菌体磁分离(PhMS) qPCR检测与qPCR确认的液体培养对犊牛MAP感染早期检测的诊断性Se和特异性(Sp)。使用贝叶斯潜类模型(BLCM),我们分析了来自智利39个商业畜群的528只60日龄奶牛的粪便样本<; 。该模型显示,两种测试都具有相当的MAP检测中位数Se (PhMS = 45 %;培养= 51 %)和高中位数Sp (PhMS = 98 %;培养= 100 %)。然而,在map感染动物中,测试结果呈强负相关(相关系数,ρDPhMS,Cult = - 0.66; 95 %后验概率区间[PPI]: - 0.91 ~ - 0.12)。这种强烈的负相关表明,检测倾向于检测感染人群的不同亚群,使它们在并行检测策略中互补,以最大化关节敏感性(Sej)。估计犊牛群内平均真实患病率为13 %(95% % PPI: 8-22 %)。此外,PhMS-qPCR的Sp在高流行的畜群中下降,可能是由于病原体的被动脱落。至关重要的是,利用它们的互补性,对测试的平行解释获得了92 %(95 % PPI: 53-100 %)的高组合Se,同时保持了97 %的高Sp。总之,PhMS-qPCR和qpcr证实的液体培养是互补的诊断工具。它们在并行检测策略中的组合使用可以提供一种非常有效的筛选算法,使其成为旨在最大限度地发现病例的研究机构的有力方法。
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引用次数: 0
Demographics of free-roaming dogs in Guwahati, India: Assessing population characteristics and comparing population size estimation methods 印度古瓦哈蒂自由流浪狗的人口统计:评估种群特征和比较种群大小估计方法
IF 2.4 2区 农林科学 Q1 VETERINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106773
Laura Cunha Silva , Parimala Mohanty , Reda Zahri , Salome Dürr , Harish Kumar Tiwari
India has the highest global burden of rabies, accounting for approximately 35 % of all human rabies deaths worldwide with free-roaming dogs (FRDs) playing a critical role in the spread of the disease. While several studies have assessed FRD demographics in India, none have focused on Northeast India, particularly Assam. This study 1) characterizes FRD demographics in two urban settings in Guwahati, Assam, 2) estimates FRD populations using Program MARK’s Huggin's heterogeneity models and the Application SuperDuplicates (AS), and 3) evaluates AS as a resource effective alternative to Huggin's heterogeneity models for population estimation. Photographic capture-recapture surveys were conducted in two distinct locations in Guwahati: a market area without defined boundaries and a gated university campus. We detected 183 and 141 unique FRDs at the market and campus sites, respectively. The FRD in the market area were significantly younger, exhibited lower sterilization rates, and tended to be in poorer physical condition compared to those in the campus area; differences in body condition and collar presence were not statistically significant. Population estimates using Huggin's heterogeneity models revealed a FRD population size of 252 individuals (using the Chao estimator in the Huggin’s model) at the market site, while campus estimates varied between 161 during morning transects and 153 during evening transects (using the Jackknife estimator) and with morning and evening combined (using the Chao estimator) of 164 FRD. The AS estimated 246 FRD in the market and 178 on campus. Since the AS only requires data from two transect surveys, all possible survey combinations were built to estimate the FRD population size via AS and over 70 % similarity was observed between all these AS estimates compared to Huggin's heterogeneity model results. Within the same urban setting, variations free-roaming dog population characteristics and estimates across study sites were likely based on differences in local environmental and socio-spatial factors. Application SuperDuplicates showed to be a reliable, efficient alternative to Huggin's heterogeneity models for estimating FRD populations, with compatibility above the 70 % threshold whilst requiring information from two surveys only.
印度是全球狂犬病负担最重的国家,约占全世界所有人类狂犬病死亡人数的35% %,而自由漫游的狗在疾病传播中发挥了关键作用。虽然有几项研究评估了印度的FRD人口统计数据,但没有一项研究关注印度东北部,特别是阿萨姆邦。本研究1)分析了阿萨姆邦古瓦哈提两个城市的FRD人口特征,2)使用Program MARK的Huggin异质性模型和应用超级重复(AS)估计FRD人口,3)评估AS作为人口估计的Huggin异质性模型的资源有效替代方案。在Guwahati的两个不同地点进行了摄影捕捉-再捕捉调查:一个没有明确边界的市场区域和一个封闭的大学校园。我们在市场和校园分别检测到183和141个独特的frd。与校园区相比,市场区FRD明显年轻化,杀菌率较低,体质较差;身体状况和领圈存在的差异无统计学意义。使用Huggin的异质性模型进行的种群估计显示,在市场现场,FRD的种群规模为252个(使用Huggin模型中的Chao估计器),而校园内的FRD种群规模在早上样带的161个和晚上样带的153个(使用Jackknife估计器)之间变化,早晚结合(使用Chao估计器)有164个FRD。AS估计市场上有246个FRD,校园里有178个。由于AS只需要来自两个样带调查的数据,因此建立了所有可能的调查组合来通过AS估计FRD种群规模,与Huggin的异质性模型结果相比,所有这些AS估计之间的相似性超过70% %。在相同的城市环境中,不同研究地点的自由流浪狗种群特征和估计值的变化可能是基于当地环境和社会空间因素的差异。应用superduplicate被证明是一种可靠、有效的替代Huggin的异质性模型来估计FRD种群,其兼容性高于70% %的阈值,同时只需要两次调查的信息。
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引用次数: 0
Frequency and risk factors of dogwalk incidents and injuries in agility dogs 敏捷犬遛狗事故及伤害的频率及危险因素。
IF 2.4 2区 农林科学 Q1 VETERINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106771
Leena Inkilä, Anna Boström, Heli K. Hyytiäinen
Approximately 5–12 % of agility dog injuries occur on the dogwalk, according to survey studies. The rate of falls and injuries related to dogwalk exposure is unknown. Here, a two-part retrospective online survey was conducted to collect data on dogwalk incidents and injuries in 1603 Finnish agility dogs (232 included in both parts) over the six months preceding participation in the study. Data was collected before and after a competition regulation update affecting dogwalk approaches. Risk factors were evaluated with multivariate logistic regression models. Fall(s) from the dogwalk were reported in 15.2 % of responses, close call(s) in 30.1 % and injury secondary to dogwalk incident in 3.7 % during six months. There were estimated 2.6 falls (95 % CI 2.4–2.9) and 0.6 injuries (95 % CI 0.4–0.7) per 1000 dogwalks (n = 1538). Among incidents, 5 % (86/1705) resulted in an injury. Significant risk factors for falls and/or other incidents included higher wither height (OR 1.33–1.74 per 10 cm) and greater exposure to the dogwalk (OR 1.03–1.06 per 10 dogwalks) (n = 452 to n = 1308). Age (OR 0.77–0.87 per year) and dogs’ higher competition level were significant protective factors for falls and/or other incidents (n = 452 to n = 1308). Border Collies (OR 2.73, p = 0.004), taller dogs (OR 1.43 per 10 cm, p = 0.033) and dogs of inexperienced handlers (p = 0.003) had an increased odds of injury (n = 1308). Reduction in the incidence after the regulation update was not detected. The current dogwalk poses a risk to agility dogs’ welfare, requiring further scientific studies to investigate safety improvements.
根据调查研究,大约5- 12% %的敏捷犬受伤发生在遛狗时。与遛狗相关的跌倒和受伤率尚不清楚。在这里,进行了一项两部分的回顾性在线调查,收集了1603只芬兰敏捷犬(两部分包括232只)在参与研究前六个月内遛狗事件和受伤的数据。数据收集之前和之后的竞争法规更新影响狗走方法。采用多因素logistic回归模型评价危险因素。在6个月内,因遛狗而跌倒的应答者占15.2% %,因近距离接触而受伤的应答者占30.1% %,因遛狗而受伤的应答者占3.7 %。每1000次遛狗(n = 1538)估计有2.6次跌倒(95 % CI 2.4-2.9)和0.6次受伤(95 % CI 0.4-0.7)。在事故中,5 %(86/1705)导致了伤害。跌倒和/或其他事件的重要危险因素包括更高的萎缩高度(or 1.33-1.74 / 10 cm)和更多的遛狗暴露(or 1.03-1.06 / 10遛狗)(n = 452至n = 1308)。年龄(OR 0.77-0.87 /年)和狗较高的竞技水平是跌倒和/或其他事件的显著保护因素(n = 452至n = 1308)。边境牧羊犬(0.004或2.73,p = ),高狗(每10 厘米或1.43,p = 0.033)和狗的经验处理程序(p = 0.003)的几率增加了损伤(n = 1308)。未检测到法规更新后发病率的降低。目前的遛狗对敏捷犬的福利构成了威胁,需要进一步的科学研究来调查安全性的改善。
{"title":"Frequency and risk factors of dogwalk incidents and injuries in agility dogs","authors":"Leena Inkilä,&nbsp;Anna Boström,&nbsp;Heli K. Hyytiäinen","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106771","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106771","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Approximately 5–12 % of agility dog injuries occur on the dogwalk, according to survey studies. The rate of falls and injuries related to dogwalk exposure is unknown. Here, a two-part retrospective online survey was conducted to collect data on dogwalk incidents and injuries in 1603 Finnish agility dogs (232 included in both parts) over the six months preceding participation in the study. Data was collected before and after a competition regulation update affecting dogwalk approaches. Risk factors were evaluated with multivariate logistic regression models. Fall(s) from the dogwalk were reported in 15.2 % of responses, close call(s) in 30.1 % and injury secondary to dogwalk incident in 3.7 % during six months. There were estimated 2.6 falls (95 % CI 2.4–2.9) and 0.6 injuries (95 % CI 0.4–0.7) per 1000 dogwalks (n = 1538). Among incidents, 5 % (86/1705) resulted in an injury. Significant risk factors for falls and/or other incidents included higher wither height (OR 1.33–1.74 per 10 cm) and greater exposure to the dogwalk (OR 1.03–1.06 per 10 dogwalks) (n = 452 to n = 1308). Age (OR 0.77–0.87 per year) and dogs’ higher competition level were significant protective factors for falls and/or other incidents (n = 452 to n = 1308). Border Collies (OR 2.73, p = 0.004), taller dogs (OR 1.43 per 10 cm, p = 0.033) and dogs of inexperienced handlers (p = 0.003) had an increased odds of injury (n = 1308). Reduction in the incidence after the regulation update was not detected. The current dogwalk poses a risk to agility dogs’ welfare, requiring further scientific studies to investigate safety improvements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 106771"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145834532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
When beef cattle drink less: Automated water intake monitoring as an early warning for respiratory disease during the adaptation period at the fattening unit 当肉牛喝得少时:育肥单位在适应期间自动监测饮水量,作为呼吸系统疾病的预警。
IF 2.4 2区 农林科学 Q1 VETERINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106772
Luisa Magrin, Simone Dante, Barbara Contiero, Lorenzo Serva, Flaviana Gottardo, Giulio Cozzi
Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) remains the leading health and welfare challenge in intensively finished beef cattle. It is the primary cause of antimicrobial treatments and a major source of economic losses due to reduced performance, increased mortality, and high therapeutic costs. Early, non-invasive indicators of BRD are urgently needed to improve its timely detection and mitigate the negative impact on cattle health and farm economics. With a view to precision livestock farming, this study investigated whether the automatic recording of individual drinking behavior and water consumption could provide some useful indicators of early BRD detection during the critical adaptation period of beef cattle at the fattening unit. The study involved 92 Limousine cattle (64 bulls, 28 heifers) from six different batches imported from France between May 2021 and December 2022. An innovative electronic drinking station equipped with radio-frequency identification and flow sensors automatically recorded individual drinking events, water intake, and time spent drinking during the 4 weeks of adaptation at the fattening farm. During the same time period, individual cattle daily health checks were performed by the farm veterinarian, recording all therapeutic treatments for BRD. Forty-five of the 92 animals (49 %) received at least one treatment for BRD during the 4-week adaptation period. In most cases, the first treatment was administered within the first two weeks of arrival (11.2 ± 6.9 days). Animals treated two or more times for BRD exhibited persistently lower daily water intake compared with untreated animals (20.9 vs. 27.3 L/day, respectively), particularly during the first two weeks after arrival. Two days before treatment, affected animals showed a significant reduction in daily water intake compared with healthy ones, whereas daily drinking time and number of visits to the drinker remained unchanged. Risk analysis revealed that cattle with individual water intake below 20.8 L/day increased by over fourfold the odds ratio of developing BRD. Additionally, groups of beef cattle arriving during autumn–winter exhibited a higher BRD occurrence than those arriving in late spring or early summer. These outcomes encourage the use of automatic devices to monitor the individual drinking behaviour during the adaptation period, as they could help identify conditions in which animals may be at higher risk of developing respiratory diseases.
牛呼吸道疾病(BRD)仍然是精耕细作肉牛的主要健康和福利挑战。它是抗菌素治疗的主要原因,也是经济损失的主要来源,因为它降低了治疗效果、增加了死亡率和高昂的治疗费用。迫切需要BRD的早期非侵入性指标,以提高其及时发现并减轻对牛健康和农场经济的负面影响。本研究从畜禽精准养殖的角度,探讨了在育肥单元的关键适应期,个体饮水行为和饮水量的自动记录能否为早期发现BRD提供一些有用的指标。该研究涉及从2021年5月至2022年12月从法国进口的6批92头豪华牛(64头公牛,28头小母牛)。一个创新的电子饮水站配备了射频识别和流量传感器,在育肥场适应的4周内,自动记录个体饮水事件、饮水量和饮水时间。在同一时期,农场兽医对每头牛进行每日健康检查,记录所有BRD治疗。92只动物中有45只(49% %)在4周适应期接受了至少一次BRD治疗。在大多数病例中,第一次治疗在到达后的前两周内进行(11.2 ± 6.9天)。与未治疗的动物相比,接受两次或两次以上BRD治疗的动物表现出持续较低的日饮水量(分别为20.9和27.3 L/天),尤其是在抵达后的前两周。治疗前两天,受影响的动物与健康动物相比,每日饮水量显著减少,而每日饮水时间和对饮水者的访问次数保持不变。风险分析显示,个体饮水量低于20.8 L/天的牛患BRD的优势比增加了4倍以上。此外,秋冬季到达的肉牛群体比春末或初夏到达的肉牛群体表现出更高的BRD发生率。这些结果鼓励使用自动设备来监测适应期间的个体饮酒行为,因为它们可以帮助确定动物可能患呼吸道疾病风险较高的条件。
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引用次数: 0
Development of an Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index (IDVI) for dairy farms: A data-driven approach to assessing risk and informing biosecurity practices 为奶牛场制定传染病脆弱性指数(IDVI):一种数据驱动的评估风险和告知生物安全实践的方法
IF 2.4 2区 农林科学 Q1 VETERINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106770
Johnbosco U. Osuagwu , Julia M. Smith , Scott C. Merrill
Dairy farms are vulnerable to a wide range of infectious diseases, which can have significant economic and public health consequences. However, there remains a lack of a robust, farm-level tool that assesses their disease vulnerability. The primary objective of this study was to develop and validate the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index (IDVI) as a tool for assessing dairy farm vulnerability to disease, aimed at enhancing biosecurity strategies and prioritizing high-risk farms for targeted interventions. Survey data on biosecurity practices, farm management, and animal movement were analyzed using K-Prototypes clustering, dimensionality reduction, optimal cluster determination, stability assessment, and validation. The clustering analysis revealed three distinct farm clusters, characterized by low, medium, and high disease vulnerability index categories. Cluster quality was assessed using silhouette scores (mean = 0.69) and Davies-Bouldin Index (mean = 0.44), with bootstrap resampling (200 iterations) confirming stability, and Friedman’s Test showing statistically distinct risk clusters. Following permutation testing, the factors with the most impact on the infectious disease vulnerability clusters included specific farm characteristics such as organic status and the total number of dairy animals, animal movement practices including frequency of bull calf movements and the average number of heifers leaving the farm during a shipment, farm contacts including hunters and dead animal haulers, and farm biosecurity practices including farm equipment transport practices, engaging in dairy animal exhibitions, and not having quarantine facilities with water, feed, and air separated from other farm animals. The IDVI offers a promising measure of comparing disease risk profiles, validated through bootstrapped silhouette scoring, statistical analysis, and permutation importance analysis. By leveraging the IDVI, dairy farmers, veterinarians, and animal health authorities can identify high-risk farms, implement targeted interventions to improve biosecurity, reduce disease transmission, and consequently enhance their outbreak preparedness.
奶牛场容易受到各种传染病的影响,这可能会对经济和公共卫生产生重大影响。然而,仍然缺乏一个可靠的、农场层面的工具来评估它们的疾病易感性。本研究的主要目的是开发和验证传染病脆弱性指数(IDVI)作为评估奶牛场疾病脆弱性的工具,旨在加强生物安全战略并优先考虑高风险农场进行有针对性的干预。通过k - prototype聚类、降维、最优聚类确定、稳定性评估和验证,对生物安全实践、农场管理和动物运动的调查数据进行了分析。聚类分析显示了三个不同的农场集群,以低、中、高疾病易感性指数类别为特征。聚类质量采用剪影评分(均值= 0.69)和Davies-Bouldin指数(均值= 0.44)进行评估,自举重新抽样(200次迭代)确认稳定性,弗里德曼检验显示具有统计学差异的风险聚类。经过排列测试,对传染病脆弱性集群影响最大的因素包括特定的农场特征,如有机状况和奶牛总数,动物运动做法,包括公牛运动频率和运输期间离开农场的小母牛平均数量,农场接触,包括猎人和死亡动物搬运工,以及农场生物安全做法,包括农场设备运输做法。从事乳品动物展览,未设置与其他农场动物隔离的水、饲料、空气的检疫设施的。IDVI提供了一种比较疾病风险概况的有希望的方法,通过自举轮廓评分、统计分析和排列重要性分析进行验证。通过利用IDVI,奶农、兽医和动物卫生当局可以确定高风险农场,实施有针对性的干预措施,以改善生物安全,减少疾病传播,从而加强疫情防范。
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引用次数: 0
Machine learning-based detection of subclinical and clinical ketosis in Holstein cows using sensor data during the transition period 基于机器学习的过渡时期荷斯坦奶牛亚临床和临床酮症检测
IF 2.4 2区 农林科学 Q1 VETERINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106769
Eunjeong Jeon , Jongkyoo Kim , Mooyoung Jung , Jihwan Lee , Donghyeon Kim , Seungmin Ha
Ketosis, a metabolic disorder in dairy cows, poses a risk of substantial economic losses, particularly when it progresses to clinical forms. Previous prediction models relied on smart farming data and binary classification, without incorporating risk factors such as calf birth weight. Therefore, we aimed to develop a multiclass classification model to differentiate non- (NK), subclinical (SCK), and clinical (CK) ketosis in Holstein cows by integrating behavioral indicators, cow-specific traits, and environmental variables. We hypothesized that integrating these diverse data sources would improve the ability of the model to accurately classify ketosis severity during the transition period. A total of 132 Holsteins were monitored for 21 d after calving using automatic monitoring (HR-TAG). Input features included activity, rumination time, calving age, calf birth weight, and calving season. Blood β-hydroxybutyrate concentrations were measured at eight time points, and cows were classified into NK (<1.2 mmol/L), SCK (1.2–2.9 mmol/L), or CK (≥3.0 mmol/L) groups based on the highest BHBA value recorded across the sampling period. Five machine-learning algorithms—K-nearest neighbors, decision tree, random forest, support vector machine, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were trained on 70 % of the dataset and optimized using 10-fold cross-validation, and final model performance was evaluated on the remaining 30 % test set. XGBoost performed best, achieving an accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F-measure, kappa, and an area under the curve of 0.959, 0.935, 0.966, 0.951, 0.918, and 0.950, respectively. Feature importance analysis identified calving age, calf birth weight, and calving season as key predictors for ketosis severity. These results demonstrate that sensor-based behavioral traits, together with cow-specific characteristics and environmental factors, enable accurate classification of ketosis severity and support the application of precision dairy technologies for early detection and tailored herd management.
酮症是奶牛的一种代谢紊乱,尤其当它发展成临床形式时,会造成巨大的经济损失。以前的预测模型依赖于智能农业数据和二元分类,没有考虑小牛出生体重等风险因素。因此,我们旨在建立一个多类别分类模型,通过综合行为指标、奶牛特异性性状和环境变量来区分荷斯坦奶牛的非(NK)、亚(SCK)和临床(CK)酮症。我们假设整合这些不同的数据源将提高模型在过渡时期准确分类酮症严重程度的能力。采用自动监测(HR-TAG)对132头荷斯坦奶牛进行产犊后21 d的监测。输入特征包括活动、反刍时间、产犊年龄、小牛出生体重和产犊季节。在8个时间点测量血液中β-羟基丁酸浓度,并根据采样期间记录的最高BHBA值将奶牛分为NK组(<1.2 mmol/L)、SCK组(1.2 ~ 2.9 mmol/L)和CK组(≥3.0 mmol/L)。五种机器学习算法——k近邻、决策树、随机森林、支持向量机和极端梯度增强(XGBoost)——在70% %的数据集上进行训练,并使用10倍交叉验证进行优化,最后在剩余的30% %的测试集上评估模型的性能。XGBoost表现最佳,其准确度、灵敏度、特异性、F-measure、kappa和曲线下面积分别为0.959、0.935、0.966、0.951、0.918和0.950。特征重要性分析确定产犊年龄、小牛出生体重和产犊季节是酮症严重程度的关键预测因素。这些结果表明,基于传感器的行为特征,以及奶牛的特定特征和环境因素,可以准确分类酮症的严重程度,并支持精确乳制品技术的应用,以早期发现和定制牛群管理。
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引用次数: 0
Behavioural drivers of on-farm biosecurity implementation in livestock: A literature overview with insights for research 牲畜农场生物安全实施的行为驱动因素:具有研究见解的文献综述。
IF 2.4 2区 农林科学 Q1 VETERINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106768
Mehmet Murat Dogusan , Helena C. De Carvalho Ferreira , Sebastián Jesús Moya Durán , Lidiia Moskalenko , Marnie Louise Brennan , Daniele De Meneghi , Maria Rodrigues Da Costa , Giovanna Ciaravino , Rui Gaspar
Global livestock intensification heightens disease risks, making effective biosecurity crucial. However, the inconsistent adoption of biosecurity measures and the behavioural drivers behind this variability are not fully understood. This review assessed the current state of knowledge and identified evidence gaps regarding drivers influencing stakeholders’ decision-making and the implementation of biosecurity practices, to clarify why well-established measures are not consistently applied and to guide research addressing the factors shaping biosecurity implementation.
Following PRISMA 2020 guidelines, a systematic search up to October 2023 was conducted across PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus. Using a literature overview methodology, we retrieved relevant review articles on biosecurity decision-making (first phase), from which we identified relevant original research cited within them (second phase). Thematic analysis used the Capability, Opportunity and Motivation Behaviour (COM-B) model, with the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) guiding the coding procedure.
Of 811 reviews initially retrieved, 37 were included. From these, 205 original research articles were identified, of which 78 were included. Most original studies originated from Europe and Central Asia (n = 38), highlighting geographical biases. Research mainly targeted farmers (n = 78), with few studies targeting veterinarians (n = 6). While 45 articles addressed all three COM-B components, beyond half (n = 46) reported four or fewer TDF domains, suggesting important knowledge gaps in the literature.
Future studies should target understudied regions, TDF domains (e.g. Skills, Goals and Reinforcement) and stakeholders (e.g. farmers) to effectively implement biosecurity measures. This will help the livestock sector adopt evidence-based biosecurity and adhering to it, improving animal health and resilience worldwide.
全球畜牧业集约化加剧了疾病风险,因此有效的生物安全至关重要。然而,生物安全措施的不一致采用以及这种差异背后的行为驱动因素尚未得到充分了解。这篇综述评估了目前的知识状况,并确定了影响利益相关者决策和实施生物安全实践的驱动因素方面的证据差距,以澄清为什么已确立的措施没有得到一致的应用,并指导研究解决影响生物安全实施的因素。根据PRISMA 2020指南,对PubMed、Web of Science和Scopus进行了截至2023年10月的系统检索。采用文献综述法,检索了生物安全决策相关综述文章(第一阶段),并从中确定了其中引用的相关原始研究(第二阶段)。主题分析采用能力、机会和动机行为(COM-B)模型,理论领域框架(TDF)指导编码过程。在最初检索到的811篇评论中,有37篇被纳入。从中确定了205篇原创研究论文,其中78篇被纳入。大多数原始研究来自欧洲和中亚(n = 38),突出了地理偏差。研究主要针对农民(n = 78),针对兽医的研究很少(n = 6)。虽然有45篇文章涉及了所有三个COM-B组成部分,但超过一半(n = 46)报告了四个或更少的TDF域,这表明文献中存在重要的知识空白。未来的研究应针对研究不足的地区、TDF领域(如技能、目标和强化)和利益相关者(如农民),以有效实施生物安全措施。这将有助于畜牧部门采用并遵守循证生物安全措施,从而改善全世界动物的健康和复原力。
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引用次数: 0
Role of stability and triangulation-based methods to improve identification of risk factors for lameness in ewes 稳定性和基于三角测量的方法在提高母羊跛行危险因素识别中的作用。
IF 2.4 2区 农林科学 Q1 VETERINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106767
Naomi S. Prosser , Laura E. Green , Martin J. Green
Lameness has serious impact on sheep health and profitability. In the UK, the largest-scale questionnaire investigating risk factors for lameness (107 questions and 1260 respondents) identified 20 significant variables using stepwise Poisson regression. It is now known that stepwise procedures with wide data can result in overfit models. This research reanalysed these data, using methods that minimise the likelihood of overfitting and therefore reduce the probability of identifying false positive variables. Poisson and log-normal regression models were built with six different variable selection methods, stability selection and triangulation. Six variables were selected in the final triangulated models associated with a reduced prevalence of lameness, fewer than the 20 variables selected in the original analysis. These six variables covered early treatment of individual sheep, treating sheep with any severity of lameness, avoiding routine foot trimming and avoiding footbathing to treat underrunning footrot. Early treatment of individual lame sheep had the highest population attributable fraction for reduction of lameness. Our results highlight the importance of addressing overfitting when fitting models to wide data and the usefulness of triangulating results across different model types. The results strengthen the evidence that the greatest reduction in lameness nationwide would be achieved if farmers treated the first lame sheep in a group rather than waiting until more become lame.
跛行严重影响羊的健康和盈利能力。在英国,最大规模的调查跛行风险因素的问卷(107个问题和1260名受访者)使用逐步泊松回归确定了20个显著变量。现在已经知道,具有广泛数据的逐步过程可能导致过拟合模型。本研究使用最小化过拟合可能性的方法重新分析了这些数据,从而降低了识别假阳性变量的可能性。采用6种不同的变量选择方法、稳定性选择方法和三角法建立泊松回归模型和对数正态回归模型。在最终的三角模型中选择了六个与跛行发生率降低相关的变量,少于最初分析中选择的20个变量。这六个变量包括对单个羊的早期治疗,对任何严重跛行的羊进行治疗,避免常规的足部修剪,避免脚底沐浴以治疗跑步不足。个体跛足羊早期处理对跛足减少的群体归因分数最高。我们的结果强调了在将模型拟合到广泛数据时解决过拟合问题的重要性,以及跨不同模型类型的三角测量结果的有用性。研究结果进一步证明,如果农民在一群羊中治疗第一只跛羊,而不是等到更多的羊跛了,全国范围内跛羊的减少将会最大。
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引用次数: 0
Building an institutionalised in-service field epidemiology capacity-building program: Experiences and lessons learned from the China Field Epidemiology Training Program for Veterinarians (CFETPV) 建立制度化的在职现场流行病学能力建设项目:中国兽医现场流行病学培训项目的经验与教训。
IF 2.4 2区 农林科学 Q1 VETERINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106766
Honglin Yang , Quangang Xu , Chaojian Shen , Xinjie Wei , Fusheng Guo , Julian A. Drewe , Javier Guitian , Kachen Wongsathapornchai , John Edwards , Dirk Pfeiffer , Youming Wang , Hao Tang
The increasing threats of zoonotic and transboundary animal diseases highlight the urgent need for a skilled veterinary epidemiology workforce. Before 2010, China had limited capacity in this field. To address this gap, the China Field Epidemiology Training Program for Veterinarians (CFETPV) was established as a competency-based, in-service training program. This study assesses the contributions of CFETPV in enhancing epidemiology practice within animal health services, supporting alumni professional development, and enabling institutional integration in the government system.
A quantitative study design was employed, drawing on two alumni surveys conducted in 2019 and 2024, alongside routine program monitoring, administrative data and program progress briefs. Surveys assessed alumni’s application of epidemiological competencies in field study, teaching and policy engagement. Descriptive analyses summarised alumni profiles and contributions.
Since 2010, CFETPV has trained 265 professionals through its introductory course and graduated 153 from the two-year program across 31 provinces. Trainees completed 305 field practices during the training. After graduation, alumni conducted 730 epidemiological investigations and studies, contributed to 297 risk assessments, supported major disease control efforts and informed 98 national and provincial guidelines. In 2019, CFETPV became fully funded by the Chinese government, achieving full integration into the national veterinary service.
The successful integration was supported by an adaptive competency framework aligned with national priorities, strong alumni support, robust local trainer and mentor networks and consistent stakeholder engagement. These experiences offer insights for countries developing competency-based, in-service veterinary epidemiology training embedded within public veterinary services to strengthen animal health systems and One Health capacity.
人畜共患病和跨界动物疾病的威胁日益增加,这突出表明迫切需要一支熟练的兽医流行病学工作队伍。2010年之前,中国在这一领域的能力有限。为了解决这一差距,中国兽医现场流行病学培训计划(CFETPV)作为一个基于能力的在职培训计划成立。本研究评估了CFETPV在加强动物卫生服务中的流行病学实践,支持校友专业发展以及促进政府系统的制度整合方面的贡献。采用了定量研究设计,借鉴了2019年和2024年进行的两次校友调查,以及常规项目监测、行政数据和项目进展简报。调查评估了校友在实地研究、教学和政策参与方面应用流行病学能力的情况。描述性分析总结了校友简介和贡献。自2010年以来,CFETPV通过其入门课程培训了265名专业人员,并在31个省份完成了153名毕业生。学员在培训期间完成305项实地实践。毕业后,校友开展了730项流行病学调查和研究,参与了297项风险评估,支持了重大疾病控制工作,并为98项国家和省级指导方针提供了信息。2019年,CFETPV获得中国政府全额资助,全面融入国家兽医服务体系。成功的整合得到了与国家重点相一致的适应性能力框架、强有力的校友支持、强大的当地培训师和导师网络以及持续的利益相关者参与的支持。这些经验为在公共兽医服务中发展基于能力的在职兽医流行病学培训的国家提供了见解,以加强动物卫生系统和“同一个卫生”能力。
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Preventive veterinary medicine
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