Dynamic linkages and contagion effects: Analyzing the linkages between crude oil prices, US market sector indices and energy markets

Abstract

This paper aims to assess the dynamic linkages between crude oil futures contracts, renewable energy indices, carbon credit futures indices and several US sector market indices by applying the DECO-GARCH model and the connectedness index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). The analysis is conducted on a daily data sample from August 2014 to February 2024 and performed at both the aggregated and disaggregated levels. The disaggregated analysis revealed that the correlation between the variables was lower before periods of stress, such as the COVID-19 crisis and the Russian–Ukrainian conflict as well as a complex correlation structure with a diverse mix of positive and negative values between different pairs of variables. Moreover, the static connectedness results in terms of returns underscore a significant degree of interconnection and transmission of shocks between oil prices and sector markets, renewable energy, and carbon credit futures indices. In addition, the results highlight the responsiveness of the clean energy and carbon credit sectors to global circumstances and economic conditions. The study concludes with a dynamic connectedness analysis, highlighting once again the intricate connections and interactions between all the variables, which are exacerbated during periods of market instability and key events. The net interconnectedness analysis demonstrated that changes in crude oil prices have a significant impact on most of the variables analyzed. The findings of this study have clear implications for a wide range of market participants, policy-makers, and individuals managing portfolios, particularly in terms of diversification opportunities.