Impact of COVID-19 preventive measures on electricity demand: Evidence from Colombia

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI:10.1016/j.seps.2024.102025

Laura Victoria Quintero Gutiérrez , John García Rendón , Alejandro Gutiérrez Gómez

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Abstract

Lockdowns were one of the main preventive measures adopted by governments against the COVID-19 spread. Lockdowns changed people's routines and affected the activities of economic sectors in every country. Electric power sectors were also affected. The aim of this research is to determine the impact of preventive measures adopted by the Colombian government on the electric power demand of the main economic activities, using the difference-in-differences method and two-stage least squares estimation. In addition, a comparative analysis of the behaviour of the National Interconnected System total demand and disaggregated demand by markets in 2020, compared to previous years, was carried out. We evidence the recomposition of electricity consumption related to mandatory preventive isolation during the pandemic. The day with a more significant percentage difference compared with 2019 was April 10th, showing a decrease of 21.28 %. Therefore, this study contributes to improving the predictive models of the country's demand, optimizing the needs of future generations. Likewise, this study provides resources to optimize supplier portfolios and energy contracts for high-demand consumers.

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COVID-19 预防措施对电力需求的影响：哥伦比亚的证据

封锁是各国政府为防止 COVID-19 扩散而采取的主要预防措施之一。封锁改变了人们的日常生活，影响了各国经济部门的活动。电力部门也受到了影响。本研究的目的是利用差分法和两阶段最小二乘法估算，确定哥伦比亚政府采取的预防措施对主要经济活动的电力需求的影响。此外，我们还对 2020 年全国互联系统总需求和各市场分类需求与往年的表现进行了比较分析。我们证明了大流行病期间与强制预防性隔离有关的用电量的重新组合。与 2019 年相比，百分比差异较大的一天是 4 月 10 日，减少了 21.28%。因此，这项研究有助于改进国家需求预测模型，优化后代的需求。同样，这项研究也为优化高需求用户的供应商组合和能源合同提供了资源。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Socio-economic Planning Sciences OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-

CiteScore

9.40

自引率

13.10%

发文量

294

审稿时长

58 days

期刊介绍： Studies directed toward the more effective utilization of existing resources, e.g. mathematical programming models of health care delivery systems with relevance to more effective program design; systems analysis of fire outbreaks and its relevance to the location of fire stations; statistical analysis of the efficiency of a developing country economy or industry. Studies relating to the interaction of various segments of society and technology, e.g. the effects of government health policies on the utilization and design of hospital facilities; the relationship between housing density and the demands on public transportation or other service facilities: patterns and implications of urban development and air or water pollution. Studies devoted to the anticipations of and response to future needs for social, health and other human services, e.g. the relationship between industrial growth and the development of educational resources in affected areas; investigation of future demands for material and child health resources in a developing country; design of effective recycling in an urban setting.