A sequel to “Comprehensive analysis of single- and multi-vehicle large truck at-fault crashes on rural and urban roadways in Alabama”: Accounting for temporal instability in crash factors

Abstract

This exploratory study is a follow-up to a 2014 study that investigated factors associated with large truck at-fault crash outcomes in Alabama. To assess unobserved temporal changes in the effects of the crash factors, this study re-creates the original crash models developed in the 2014 study using crash data from 2017 to 2019. Four mixed logit models were re-created using the same variables used in the previous study to analyze contributing crash factors to injury severity of single-vehicle (SV) and multi-vehicle-involved (MV) large truck at-fault crashes in urban and rural settings. It was found that there have been temporal changes in how many of the factors influenced crash severity with some of them no longer showing any significant association with crash outcomes, while others remained significant. Further, it was observed that some of the variables that remained significant had different relationships with crash injury severity in the newer severity models. For instance, while factors such as fatigued driver (in rural crashes), clear weather (in urban crashes), single-unit truck (in rural SV crashes), truck rollover (in urban SV crashes) maintained consistent significance over time, the effects of variables such as at-fault male drivers (in urban MV crashes), at-fault female drivers (in urban MV crashes), and hitting fixed object (in rural MV crashes) have changed. One such notable difference is the variable for absence of traffic control which increased the probability of major injury in rural SV crashes by 49.50% in the 2014 model but decreased the probability of recording major injuries by 108.90% using the 2017–2019 data. Considering the temporal changes that were observed in the recreated models, newer models were developed, revealing the emergence of new variables such as truck age that are significantly associated with truck crash severity. The findings of this study provide evidence to suggest that some crash severity factors for at-fault large truck collisions vary over time, with newer ones also emerging over time. These findings can also help trucking companies, transportation engineers, and other industry experts in developing measures to reduce large truck crashes.